Saturday’s penultimate main slate features 11 games and locks at 7:05 pm E.T.
Pitchers
Five pitchers are priced over $9,000 tonight, including two pitching for their teams’ playoff lives.
- Luis Castillo (R) $10,400, CIN @ MIN
- Zach Davies (R) $10,100, SD @ SF
- Aaron Civale (R) $9,600, CLE vs PIT
- Adam Wainwright (R) $9,400, STL vs MIL
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $9,300, MIL @ STL
Note: Lance McCullers ($9,500) was expected to start for the Houston Astros if they had not clinched a playoff berth by Saturday. Houston clinched Friday night, so Chase DeJong is expected to start (do not play him).
Luis Castillo is not a pitcher I am high on today. The Cincinnati Reds punched their ticket to the playoffs last night but must turn around and try to limit a Minnesota Twins offense that carries a 113 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at home. That is good for 11th in MLB. The Twins also have to opportunity to move into the second seed in the American League playoff bracket with a win and Oakland Athletics loss.
The Bales Model ranks Castillo as the 10th-best pitcher to use on FanDuel this evening. I hate to put a dagger into a rather good season for Castillo, but his number away from home are not encouraging. His ERA, Walks Per 9 Innings, and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching score rise, and his Strikeouts Per 9 goes down.
Zach Davies is in a situation where the San Diego Padres are in their playoff spot, but their opponent is trying to sneak in. The San Francisco Giants hold the final Wild Card slot in the National League and must win out to avoid a tiebreaker scenario. I wrote last week that Davis is the same pitcher in San Diego that he was in Milwaukee, but in a pitcher’s haven. This game is in San Francisco, and the Giants eat home cooking well.
The Giants have a 132 wRC+ at home against righties, have a top 10 walk rate at home, and bottom 10 strikeout rate at home. Davies’ 37.8 Hard Hit Percentage is the second highest of his career. The Bales Model has him as the fifth worst option on tonight’s main slate.
It would not be a main slate for me if I did not have Aaron Civale to write about. He ranks third on the Bales Model today and has a dream matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Civale and the Cleveland Indians are one game behind the Twins for the division lead and the third seed. The righty has the second most Pro Trends at seven and has seen his salary on FanDuel drop $500 over the past month.
Civale is priced as the 7th best pitcher on DraftKings, so take advantage of that pricing discrepancy.
Adam Wainwright and Brandon Woodruff square off against each other in St. Louis tonight, and I dislike both. The Cardinals boast a 102 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching, while the Brewers have a 76 wRC+ on the road against righties. Both starters have an opportunity to log quality starts but a win for either may be fleeting if the offenses continue to sputter.
Wainwright is much more volatile as a finesse pitcher and gives up too many flyballs. Woodruff has strikeout upside, but the Cardinals 4th best walk rate at home. I could do the “this but that” with these two for another 500 words but I think my point is clear – avoid both.
Values
Michael Pineda ($7,800 FanDuel, $8,400 DraftKings) is the Bales Model’s darling tonight. Pineda is priced as the 12th pitcher on FanDuel and 8th on DraftKings, making him an easy target to save money and landing upside. He gets the Reds after they locked up their playoff spot. The Vegas Over/Under is set at eight runs with the Twins favored.
No surprise to see Tony Gonsolin ($7,900 on FanDuel) ranked high on the Bales Model. He gets the Los Angeles Angels. He has posted at least 31 FanDuel points in five of eight starts and has allowed three or more earned runs once. Gonsolin is priced as the fourth-most on DraftKings.
Zack Wheeler ($8,800 on FanDuel) has strikeout upside in a road start against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa strikes out 28.1% of the time against righties at home, most in baseball. The Rays also enjoy taking their walks, something Wheeler as controlled in 2020 (1.69 per 9). The Phillies must win out to even have a chance at the playoffs, so expect Wheeler to pitch with conviction. Wheeler would fall behind Civale, Pineda, and Gonsolin.
Fastballs
Luke Weaver is second on the Bales Model today but is not an option for me. He has limited upside, collecting 30 or more FanDuel points once this season. The Colorado Rockies offense is awful, but the Arizona Diamondbacks offense is worse. I do not see Weaver getting run support.
Call me crazy, but I see Dane Dunning as a dark horse strikeout leader for this evening against the Chicago Cubs. The White Sox have been an embarrassment over the previous week, and they need a win in the worst way. They have gone from the two seed in the A.L. to the seven seed in one week. The Cubs strike out 26.3% of the time against righties away from home and have a 94 wRC+ even after their 10-0 drubbing of the Sox last night.
Notable Stacks
No surprise with tonight’s top-rated stack on FanDuel:
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- George Springer (R)
Total Salary: $14,500
The Houston Astros get Kyle Gibson, the slate’s second worst pitcher according to the Bales Model. This stack projects to score 48.2 points in a game where the Astros project to score 4.8 points. All four hitters rank in the top 10 on the Bales Model.
The second-best stack is the Los Angeles Dodgers because of course, but the third best stack plays into a stack and pitcher I expect to have low ownership tonight:
- Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- Yoan Moncada (S)
- Tim Anderson (R)
- Yasmani Grandal (S)
Total Salary: $13,000
This stack pairs with Dane Dunning and projects to score 47.7 points without AL MVP candidate Jose Abreu. The Sox face Jon Lester in his potential last start with the Cubs. The soft-tossing lefty is the third worst pitcher in the Bales Model tonight and has 30 points on FanDuel three times in 11 starts. The White Sox need a win for their playoff seeding. Take advantage.
Other Batters
White Merrifield and Aldaberto Mondesi have been great the past two weeks. They rank as the top two hitters using the Bales Model and get a hitter’s matchup against Matt Boyd.
In the same game, Victor Reyes ($2,600) has eight hits over his last seven games and is an affordable hitter to balance the expensive options.
Sometimes you must pay for the best, and right now Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4,500) is that. He has a six-game hitting streak that includes two home runs, five doubles, six RBI’s, four walks, and two stolen bases.
