Thursday’s main slate on features eight games starting at 7:07 pm ET. We’ll be breaking it down using the FantasyLabs MLB Player Models.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected for the most points today are:
- Walker Buehler
- Luis Garcia
- Jose Berrios
- Nick Pivetta
The Dodgers’ Walker Buehler has been electric through the first few months of his 2021 campaign. In 90.2 innings, Buehler has struck out 88 batters, has a 2.38 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP. He’s won six of his last seven starts, too.
With quality starts in his last seven outings, Buehler will hope to continue this dominance today against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are projected for the lowest implied run total on the slate at 3.2. Also, the Bales Model projects Buehler as the highest-rated pitcher on today’s slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The second-highest rated pitcher in the Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Luis Garcia from the Houston Astros. Like Buehler, Garcia has been elite this year and is priced much lower than the Dodgers righty. In 70.1 innings pitched, Garcia has struck out 80 batters and has an ERA of 2.82. Although the Astros lacked run support for their pitcher the last two times Garcia was on the mound, he was previously on a five-game win streak which included 33 strike outs in 29 innings. Tonight, Garcia will be pitching against the Detroit Tigers who have the second most team strikeouts in MLB (743).
Jose Berrios is third in the Bales Model for both fantasy sites today. Since his last time on the mound, Berrios’ price has increased $1,900 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. It was surprising that Berrios was so cheap before as he has had a strong 2021 year so far. In 83.1 innings pitched, Berrios has struck out 87 batters and picked up the win in four of his last six starts. Tonight, he will be pitching against the Cleveland Indians who have a projected implied runs total of 4.
Nick Pivetta rates fifth in the model. After starting the season 6-0, Pivetta has lost three of his last four starts and has really struggled recently. In his last 14.2 innings pitched, he has allowed six home runs. Hoping to get back on track, Pivetta will be pitching against the Tampa Bay Rays who lead MLB with 786 team strikeouts. Although Pivetta is not known for striking out a large number of opposing batters, this is a great spot for the Red Sox righty.
Value
Although he is not highly rated in the Bales Model, one name that sticks out from a points/salary standpoint is J.C. Mejia from the Cleveland Indians. Last outing, Mejia did allow six earned runs in five innings which included two home runs. Hoping to regain his form from prior years in the minor leagues in which Mejia was dominant, he will be pitching against the Minnesota Twins. Mejia is truly a boom or bust play on today’s slate as he has a high K/9 average but does allow hard contact.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top points/salary stack comes from the -133 Atlanta Braves:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Austin Riley (R)
On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $13.9k in salary and is projected for a combined 47.8 fantasy points. Even though the Braves have struggled recently, so has the team they are facing, the Cincinnati Reds. Through 72 games played, the Reds have a .500 record and have allowed the most runs in the NL Central by 22. On the mound for the Reds today is Tony Santillan who has a 4.70 ERA in 7.2 innings pitched. This figures to be a high scoring games as both offenses are loaded with talent.
Other Hitters
Bales Model projects Tommy Edman from the St Louis Cardinals as the highest-rated batter on FanDuel today. Pro Trends considers Edman as a 97% bargain on FD as he is a bit overpriced on DK.
The Bales Model projects Michael Brantley from the Houston Astros as the highest-rated batter on DraftKings today. Brantley is leading MLB with a .356 batting average which includes four home runs and 30 RBIs. He is currently on a five-game hitting streak where he has had multi-hit games in all five starts.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Luis Arraez
- Abraham Toro
- Jesus Aguilar
- Colin Moran
- Josh Naylor
