Tuesday features a main slate of eight games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Tuesday will be the first day that we start to see some aces take a second turn through the rotation. The favorite of the Bales Model on DraftKings and FanDuel is the Chicago White Sox ace: Lucas Giolito.
Giolito has a lot going for him, including that he faces the Seattle Mariners, who have scored 15 runs in four games. It’s a small sample size, but they rate in the bottom-third of the MLB in strikeouts per game. Along with this, the Mariners’ home of T-Mobile Park is one of the most spacious in the league, giving him an above-average Park Factor for tonight.
It feels like a really strong chance Giolito can receive the quality start bonus at a minimum.
The Mariners have an implied run total of 3.5 runs, which is the second-lowest on the slate. We are actually getting a slight discount on Giolito on FanDuel compared to Opening Day, too.
There are two other big name starting pitchers on this slate, the first of which is Clayton Kershaw.
Kershaw did not really get off to a great start on Opening Day in Coors Field. He took the loss and his ERA currently sits at 7.94, while his FIP is only 3.29. But Tuesday could be a good night to ride with the lefty as he tries to thwart the Oakland Athletics, who have had a truly disastrous start to their season, sitting at 0-5 and averaging nine runs against them per game.
A benefit of putting Kershaw in a DFS lineup is that he may not even have to pitch all that well to receive a win — the Los Angeles Dodgers have so many mashers that it can take pressure off their starting pitchers.
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
RingCentral Coliseum is even more spacious than T-Mobile Park, and the Athletics have scored 12 runs in five games.
By no means do I think the Athletics will continue to be bottom-feeders all season, but this may be a good time to fade them.
Lastly, we have Yu Darvish making his second start with the San Diego Padres.
Darvish’s first start was a definite struggle, giving up two home runs and not lasting for five innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Now Darvish gets the San Francisco Giants, squaring off against Aaron Sanchez.
To me, it comes down to whether Darvish is worth the premium over the other two starters. You could make the argument that he is more likely to get the win based on betting lines — of these three teams the Padres are the heaviest favorite, at -187 — and therefore that justifies the price, but I would rather throw Giolito into my lineups than Darvish.
The decision between Kershaw and Darvish is a tougher call. I am sure that Darvish will get his strikeouts, but so will the other two. I would also rather see “it” from Darvish in a Padres uniform.
I would go right down the line with these guys tonight, in the order I presented them. The pricing is a touch different on DraftKings making Darvish more playable there.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The best projected stack of the night is the Colorado Rockies:
- 5. C.J. Cron (R)
- 3. Trevor Story (R)
- 4. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 1. Raimel Tapia (L)
This group is projected for 51.6 FanDuel points on $15,400 salary from the Bales Model. The benefit is, of course, playing home games in Coors Field. Interestingly, the current weather projections have the wind blowing straight in at 13 mph. Tapia is 4-for-7 lifetime off Diamondbacks starter Luke Weaver and Story is 4-for-11 lifetime off Weaver.
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Story
The second best projected stack is from the New York Mets:
- 4. Pete Alonso (R)
- 2. Francisco Lindor (L)
- 1. Brandom Nimmo (L)
- 3. Michael Conforto (L)
This core of four is projected for 48.7 FanDuel points on $13,600 salary. This one surprised me a bit, but the good news is that Jacob deGrom is not on the hill for this offense, as they perennially give him zero run support.
This stack has a little to do with the savings that this group brings and a little to do with facing Chase Anderson. He gave up 11 home runs in 33 2/3 innings last year. He is a guy who is going to go about four innings — in seven starts last year he went five innings twice. There should be an opportunity to get the middle of the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen here.
Other Hitters
Josh Rojas is the second favorite hitter on the Bales Model, behind Tapia. Rojas is projected to lead-off and the Diamondbacks get the benefit of Coors Field, too. There are some sneaky plays on the D’backs who have amazing lifetime numbers off Rockies starter German Marquez — David Peralta is 15-for-38 with five doubles and two home runs while Eduardo Escobar is an absurd 10-for-17 with a double, triple and home run.
Marcus Semien rates out well tonight, too. I really like Semien at the top of the Toronto Blue Jays lineup right now. He will not be there when George Springer comes back, I would imagine, but pitchers have to pick their poison at the top of the Blue Jays lineup right now, which is going to lead to Semien seeing some pitches. He has already homered twice and the Texas Rangers do not usually provide much resistance.
A bit of a contrarian play would be Mike Brosseau. He is a true reverse splits hitter. Lifetime slash line against RHP: .255/.333/.400. Lifetime slash line against LHP: .313/.350/.589. Who does he face tonight? Left-hander Martin Perez of the Boston Red Sox. Lifetime off Perez, Brosseau is 4-for-10 with three doubles and a home run. He is way, way too cheap on FanDuel.
Pictured above: White Sox SP Lucas Giolito
Credit: Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images
