The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a single-game slate between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs, beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Strategy
Knowing your format is important. As we eloquently highlighted for the All-Star Game, there are a few significant differences in scoring and roster construction on DraftKings for these slates:
On DraftKings, the roster has six utility spots, each of which can be occupied by a pitcher or batter.
We have the starting pitcher (SP) designation back — for the All-Star Game, all pitchers were designated as relievers — and there are unique bonuses for things like 10-plus strikeouts (2 points) and 7-plus innings pitched (1.25 points).
FanDuel’s single-game format has its own unique nuances:
On FanDuel, you have to roster only five utility players, but you also have to choose one of them as your MVP, whose scoring will count at a 1.5 multiple.The MVP decision is important.
There are no pitchers today in this format, so naturally, most people could lean towards one of the studs in the MVP slot. However, if you are looking to take down a GPP, it might make sense to look for home-run upside in a batter with a reduced salary.
Rosters
Pitchers
You could roll the dice on a high-upside relief pitcher in GPPs. DraftKings provides 5 points for a save in this format and slight changes in other scoring avenues, but starting pitcher will likely have a larger impact on this showdown slate at the position:
- Carlos Martinez (R) $14,600
- Kyle Hendricks (R) $13,900
Martinez may carry a strikeout edge with an 8.6 K/9 this season (Baseball Reference), versus just 6.8 from Hendricks, but it’s a much tougher matchup as the Cubs rank fifth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) and their .335 wOBA is second-best against right-handed pitching this season (FanGraphs).
The Cardinals are a neutral matchup for righties, and Vegas leans towards Hendricks at home as the Cubs are currently -155 moneyline favorites. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data have been solid investments on DraftKings, averaging a +2.20 Plus/Minus with a 56.4% Consistency rating (per our MLB Trends tool). Hendricks has smashed in those situations in the past, with a spike to a 9.27 Plus/Minus and 81.8% Consistency. He also holds a slight edge in the Statcast department over the past month, including a 34.6% hard-hit rate versus 43.0% for Martinez in that same time period.
Batters
Projected to lead off for Chicago, Anthony Rizzo stands out with a strong .334 wOBA and .184 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but Kyle Schwarber (projected sixth) could be a differentiator in tournaments. Rizzo is also on the positive side of his batting splits, but Schwarber’s 50.0% fly-ball rate over the past month leads all Cubs batters and his 45.7% hard-hit rate trails only Javier Baez (47.4%) in that same time period. During the past 14 days, Schwarber’s Statcast data looks even more impressive, including an elite 64.3% hard-hit rate.
On the St. Louis side, lead-off hitter Matt Carpenter will be chalky, sporting a team-leading .388 wOBA and .270 ISO (minimum 50 plate attempts) against right-handed pitching this season. He also has a massive 56.9% hard-hit rate over the past month.
Yadier Molina is doing his part to get the ball in the air with a 40.0% fly-ball rate over the past month, so he could be the Cardinals batter most likely to take advantage of Hendricks’ middling 1.4 HR/9 this season. Jedd Gyorko (projected fifth) is a tough sell in cash games, as he’s struggled mightily with righties this season, with a .275 wOBA and .118 ISO. Tommy Pham, though currently projected to bat eighth, could be worth a swing in GPPs. His 53.9% hard-hit rate over the past 14 days trails only Carpenter (55.9%).
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Kyle Schwarber
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski – USA TODAY Sports
