Welcome to the first full day of League Championship Series action! Two games make up today’s MLB DFS slate with contests starting at 4:07 pm E.T.
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Astros at Rays (-130)
Weather: Clear, 82 degrees at first pitch, 1% chance of precipitation, 8 mph wind blowing in
The Astros and Rays started the ALCS with a classic low-scoring contest defined by missed opportunities. Like he has done so often this postseason, Randy Arozarena came through with the game-winning home run, securing his cult status if the Rays continue on this postseason.
Charlie Morton gets the start in Game 2 for Tampa against his former team, while Lance McCullers Jr. gets his second start of the playoffs for Houston.
Three of the pitchers starting today project close to each other in the Bales Model, with McCullers the top option on FanDuel. Morton ranks as the third best option on FanDuel and DraftKings. McCullers projects for lower ownership than Morton and is the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel’s slate.
One thing McCullers did well in his lone start in the ALDS was limit his walks. One thing he did poorly? Give up home runs, as 50% of fly balls left the yard. The Rays may not be an offensive juggernaut, but the offense does not miss on mistakes often.
The two offenses line up well together. Both walked about 9% of the time in road games against righties (game is in San Diego), but where the Rays struggle most is strikeouts. Tampa Bay struck out 24.6% of the time, while Houston whiffed 19.9% in those situations.
Charlie Morton is a flyball-dependent pitcher, and the Astros can take advantage of that. Their offense produced top 10 numbers in flyball percentage and hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.
McCullers and Morton are viable options, with McCullers’ strikeout upside adding more of a ceiling, but less of a floor if he falls flat.
Braves at Dodgers (-141)
Weather: Clear, 74 degrees at first pitch, 0% chance of precipitation, 7 mph winds blowing in
Will Max Fried be the pitcher who can finally slow the Dodgers offense? I doubt it, but the Braves de facto ace has been effective in 2020 (except against the Miami Marlins) and has the task of beating an above average offense against lefties in road games.
Los Angeles posted a 110 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and walked at the third highest rate in similar situations. Fried is the lowest rated starting pitcher using the Bales Model, and I cannot fault the model for that rating. Without looking at projections, I would have rated him the lowest, too.
Walker Buehler is the top option on DraftKings, according to the Bales Model. He is also the most expensive pitcher on both sites. I get it since Buehler is attached to the Dodgers offense, but the Atlanta Braves were the second-best team on the road against right-handed pitching using wRC+.
The Braves also ranked top five in batting average, hits, home runs, and runs scored. Buehler has been good this postseason, averaging 31.5 FanDuel points per start, but he has yet to pitch five innings. Blisters have been part of the problem for his longevity, but if I am paying up at pitching, I want quality starts and win upside. Looking at the Bales Model, Buehler has the lowest Consistency Rating of the four pitchers tonight.
I will have a difficult time using Buehler tonight because of that. I need to see him get to the basic thresholds expected from a starter before I roster him.
Top Stack
No need to ask which team provides the top stack on FanDuel using FantasyLabs’ Stack Tool:
- Max Muncy (L)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $14,900
Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger are both top 10 plays tonight, Max Muncy is a reverse splits hitter, and Justin Turner is a roller coaster ride at the plate. He continues to make the Dodgers stack because he is surrounded by excellent hitters and knows how to get on base. Bellinger and Turner are riding three-game RBI streaks.
Each team has a stack in the top four. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Houston follow Los Angeles, and the Dodgers (of course) have the fifth best stack. Houston and Atlanta have the lowest ownership expected from the best hitters, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley with the lowest projected exposure.
Other Hitters
I am off Austin Meadows and Ji-Man Choi. The two Tampa Bay hitters top their respective positions but have performed poorly. Meadows has two hits since returning from injury in time for the playoffs – both home runs – but has six strikeouts in four games. Choi has logged seven bad starts out of his last 10 according to the Bales Model.
The bottom of the Astros lineup has upside with lower ownership. Kyle Tucker has a hit in each game this postseason and has struck out once in 29 at-bats. Carlos Correa has also reached based in every game this postseason and has 11 RBI’s to boot. Tucker and Correa project to have sub-10% exposure as of Monday morning.
A.J. Pollock loves facing left-handed pitching. He hit almost 100 points higher against southpaws and had 15 RBI’s against them in 55 at-bats compared to just 19 RBI’s in 141 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
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