The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features four games starting at 5:08 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Pitchers
The four pitchers on the mound today are:
- Julio Urias (L)
- Framber Valdez (L)
- Chris Sale (L)
- Huascar Ynoa (R)
Julio Urias is the most expensive pitcher on the slate, by a wide margin, and has the highest projection according to the Player Model. While the SO/9 is under 10 and on par with two of the other pitchers, both the WHIP and HR/9 are below 1. The Vegas Dashboard has the Braves implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs.
During the regular season, Atlanta was 18th in strikeouts and fourth in ISO against left-handed pitching. Urias has faced the Braves three times this season. Back in June, he went five innings, allowed one earned run, and struck out five for 18.65 DraftKings points. In August, he went six innings, allowed two earned runs, and struck out seven for 25.1 DraftKings points. Keep in mind that he did pitch one inning of relief in Game 2 and allowed three hits and two earned runs.
Chris Sale has the highest projected Plus/Minus (7.67), Bargain Rating (94%), and strikeout prediction (7.06) on the slate. There’s some risk, though, as the Vegas Dashboard has the Astros implied for 4.6 runs, and Sale has a WHIP of 1.314 with an HR/9 of 1.217.
He faced the Astros in Game 1 and pitched 2 2/3 innings while allowing five hits and one earned run. Over his last 10 starts, Sale has averaged a negative 4.14 Plus/Minus and exceeded points expectations by only 20%.
On the season, the Astros are 30th in strikeouts and fifth in ISO against left-handed pitching.
Framber Valdez has the lowest SO/9 at 7.968 and the lowest HR/9 at 0.779. The WHIP is high at 1.231, though. The Vegas Dashboard has the Red Sox implied for a slate-high 5 runs, so this is a scary spot.
During the regular season, Boston was 28th in strikeouts and 18th in ISO against left-handed pitching.
Valdez faced the Red Sox three times this season. Back in June, he went seven innings, allowed one earned run on five hits, and struck out 10 for 29.55 DraftKings points. A few days later, he went 7 1/3 innings, allowed one earned run on five hits, and struck out 8 for 30.29 DraftKings points. In Game 1, he went only 2 2/3 innings, allowed two earned run on six hits, and struck out two.
Huascar Ynoa is the lowest-priced pitcher at $6,700. The projected Plus/Minus is second-highest, and he has a higher projection than Valdez. The SO/9 is a respectable 9.465, while the WHIP is 1.098. The HR/9 of 1.366 is the highest on the slate, though.
The Vegas Dashboard has the Dodgers implied for 4.8 runs and the money line for the Braves at +194, the highest odds on the slate.
Ynoa has not faced the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles is 20th in strikeouts and eighth in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
The top projected stack is Los Angeles. A five-player Dodgers stack will cost $22.3K on DraftKings with a projection of 42.9 points.
- Cody Bellinger (L)
- Trea Turner (R)
- Justin Turner (R)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Mookie Betts (L)
The Dodgers are implied for 4.8 runs. They face Huascar Ynoa, who has a 3.93 FIP on the season. He’s been worse on the road, as the K/9 goes from 11.34 to 8.12, the HR/9 goes from 1.08 to 1.76, and the FIP goes from 3.23 to 4.78. As for splits, he allows more home runs to righties, and the FIP is higher against them as well. The Braves bullpen had the 19th-highest FIP.
Cody Bellinger had a horrific regular season marred by injuries. He’s delivered in the playoffs, though, and is coming off a game in which he blasted a three-run homer in the eighth inning to tie the game, which the Dodgers eventually won. Bellinger has always hit righties better than lefties, and the career slash is .267/.358/.538 with a .271 ISO against them. He will likely bat seventh in the order.
Trea Turner has had the opposite season as Bellinger. He was scorching hot during the regular season but has cooled off during the playoffs. He will likely bat third in the lineup. Turner is much better against lefties than righties, and most of his power comes against them. That said, he’s no slouch against righties as the slash is still a respectable .305/.353/.475 with a .170 ISO. He’s going to get hot at some point, and his speed provides multiple paths to fantasy goodies.
Justin Turner will likely bat fifth in the order. Like Trea, he has more power against lefties, but the slash against righties is still good at .286/.375/.463 with a .176 ISO.
Corey Seager has a home run in each of the last two games and has a five-game hitting streak. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .294/.404/.508 with a .214 ISO.
Mookie Betts will likely bat leadoff for the Dodgers. Like Trea, he has multiple paths to fantasy goodies. In these playoffs, he’s 14-for-34 with a double, a home run, 5 RBI, five walks, and five stolen bases. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .263/.365/.488 with a .225 ISO.
Other Hitters
Jose Altuve will bat leadoff for the Astros. Against left-handed pitching, he has a .278/.335/.455 slash with a .176 ISO. Chris Sale against righties has a 4.29 FIP and 1.59 HR/9. The K/9 is 11.65, so it’s not sunshine and unicorns, but Altuve has gone 8-for-24 with a double and a home run in his career.
Will Smith destroys right-handed pitching. The slash is .270/.383/.529 with a .259 ISO. As mentioned above, Ynoa is worse against righties.
Value Play
Jose Siri is batting eighth for the Astros. He only has 17 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this season, but he’s collected a triple and a home run during that span. Sale does give it up to righties on occasion, and Siri is only $2,300.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
