Happy Labor Day to our United States readers! Today’s main slate starts at 6:05 p.m. ET on FanDuel and features six games.
Pitchers
There are a few studs on today’s main slate, with three pitchers priced over $10,000:
- Max Scherzer (R), $11,000, vs. TB
- Zac Gallen (R), $10,600, @ SF
- Zach Plesac (R), $10,300, vs. KC
Scherzer is really the only household name out of those three above, but he has averaged the fewest FanDuel points per appearance (he would fall in the middle if his injury-shortened one-inning start were removed). It’s fair to say that Scherzer has not looked like himself this year, pitching to a 3.95 ERA (3.31 FIP). The big issue for Mad Max so far: his BB/9 has nearly doubled from 2019, going from 1.7 to 3.3.
Now, the good news about Scherzer this year is that he can still rack up strikeouts. He is currently matching his career-high from last year at 12.7 K/9. This allows Scherzer’s floor to be higher than most starters, as he is almost ensuring a strikeout per inning.
Mix in the fact the Tampa Bay Rays have the fifth-most strikeouts per game, and Scherzer is safe to play in cash games.
Gallen has really been a surprise for the haphazard Arizona Diamondbacks. He owns a sparkling 1.90 ERA (3.57 FIP, so maybe some regression coming) and a 0.94 WHIP. His price is $2,300 higher than when the season began.
The Diamondbacks are slight underdogs in Vegas at +110. The benefit for Gallen is he is playing in one of the best pitcher-friendly ballparks in San Francisco. Currently, the Giants have an implied run total of 3.9.
Gallen may not get the win in this game, but he has been very consistent with his success. He has recorded a quality start in his last seven games, and in four of those, he’s completed seven innings. Gallen has not given up more than two earned runs in any start. In two starts against the Giants, he has pitched for 13 innings, giving up 10 earned runs, and striking out 11.
His floor is not as high as Scherzer’s, as he’s not as strong in the strikeout department, but his consistency is solid for cash games.
I really like Plesac again tonight. The stat that jumps out to me with Plesac is that he has two walks in 27 innings. That just means a team is going to have to string together multiple hits in an inning to score off him. Plesac has also only allowed 16 hits in those 27 innings.
He just faced the Kansas City Royals to the tune of six strikeouts in six innings with one earned run. The Royals have an implied run total of a mere 3.3 runs.
The Royals just don’t offer an intimidating enough offense to think this is Plesac’s blow-up game. The Indians are strong favorites at -199, and Cleveland’s offense should be able to support Plesac with a few runs off Brad Keller.
Plesac is the best play of these three and offers some savings over the other two starters.
Values
The highest-rated pitcher on the Bales Model is Dinelson Lamet. Lamet rates out so highly because of his propensity for strikeouts. He owns an insane 13.05 K/9.
Lamet also gets to pitch tonight in San Diego, a traditionally pitcher-friendly park.
The Colorado Rockies have a pretty hot offense right now, but it’s always an advantage to face them at your own ballpark rather than Coors Field. They have an implied run total of 3.4 runs, with the Padres being -194 Vegas favorites. The Rockies are just slightly below league average at their number of strikeouts per game.
Lamet is a strong pivot off of the big-name starters. I could see using him in more of a GPP and hoping for a double-digit strikeout performance.
Charlie Morton may look like a contrarian play, but I cannot see putting him in a lineup. Morton threw 36 pitches in his return from injury last time out and didn’t give up a run, so he was not pulled for ineffectiveness. He probably only has 50-60 bullets tonight, and that’s just not enough to warrant utilizing him.
A play that may have you sweat a bit tonight: Kevin Gausman. Gausman would be purely in the consideration set for GPPs.
The best reason to play Gausman is simply that the Diamondbacks’ offense has struggled all year. They are 25th in the league at 4.02 runs per game and are just not winning many games.
Gausman clearly is not as strong of a pitcher as Gallen, and the Giants are still -117 favorites for this game. That says more about the inability of the Diamondbacks’ offense than anything else. They have an implied run total of 3.9 runs for tonight.
If Gausman can hit for a win and quality start, he could be the reason someone wins a GPP tonight. The problem is Gausman has two wins and one quality start in eight starts this year. A worthy dart throw, if that’s how you want to play.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The highest-projected stack for the night is the Indians:
- 4. Carlos Santana (S)
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 3. Francisco Lindor (S)
Per the Bales Model, this group is projected for 48.9 FanDuel points on $12,700. The last week or so has started to see an increase in the success of the Indians’ offense. They face Kansas City’s Keller, who has a bit of a lucky 1.93 ERA (3.01 FIP). All of these hitters will hit left-handed off of Keller, with a nine mph wind blowing out to right field in Cleveland. All four of these hitters hit for at least five ProTrends.
The second-highest projected stack for tonight is from the Padres:
- 4. Austin Nola (R)
- 2. Manny Machado (R)
- 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- 5. Wil Myers (R)
This group is projected for 46.3 FanDuel points on $14,700, as it faces left-hander Kyle Freeland. Freeland’s BAA is basically dead even between LHH and RHH. San Diego has the highest runs per game in the league, so it could be a good opportunity to back this offense on a small slate.
Other Hitters
A few of the Oakland Athletics’ hitters rate well on the Bales Model, including Marcus Semien, Tommy La Stella and Mark Canha as bargains. They face Cristian Javier in a key divisional matchup with the Houston Astros. With the wind blowing out at nine mph in Oakland, the A’s have a strong implied run total at 4.9.
The Toronto Blue Jays have an implied run total of 4.8 tonight in Buffalo. Facing Jordan Montgomery, it could be a good time to get Randal Grichuk into lineups. Jordan Montgomery really struggles against RHH (.315 BAA for righties, .172 BAA for lefties), and Grichuk has been hammering LHP (.348 batting average, 1.071 OPS). The other Blue Jay hitter that feasts on lefties is Cavan Biggio so clearly something has to give in his at-bats versus Montgomery.
