The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features seven games starting at 1:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
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Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Zack Wheeler (R)
- Brandon Woodruff (R)
- Sonny Gray (R)
- Chris Sale (L)
The season numbers for Zack Wheeler are fantastic. He’s posted a 2.7 FIP, 12.6% swinging-strike rate, 10.25 K/9, and 0.74 HR/9. He’s averaged +5.84 points above expectation and exceeded it 58% of the time. That said, much of that success occurred during the months of May and June. Over the last seven starts, Wheeler has scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points five times and posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of those starts.
He did put up 49.45 DraftKings points in one of those games, so a ceiling game is always in play. Out of the top group of pitchers, the 33% Consistency Rating for the month is the lowest by a wide margin. Today, Wheeler gets to face a Brewers team that is 10th in strikeouts and 15th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
The SO/AB number of .327 is the third-highest on the slate, while the wOBA of .285 is the fifth-lowest. He faced this Brewers team back in early May and went nine innings, allowed three hits, and struck out eight, good for 43.45 DraftKings points.
Brandon Woodruff has similar season-long numbers as Wheeler and was also more consistent and productive earlier in the season. Over his last six starts, he’s scored fewer than 20 DraftKings points three times, with two of those games in the single digits. His two most recent games, though, have been 26.7 and 34.5 DraftKings performances.
He faces a Phillies team that is 11th in strikeouts and 22nd in ISO against right-handed pitching. The .293 SO/AB is the fifth-highest on the slate, while the .289 wOBA is the seventh-highest. Woodruff faced the Phillies back in early May and went 6 2/3 innings, allowed two hits, walked two, and struck out 11, good for 32.61 DraftKings points. According to the Bales Model, he has a 79% Bargain Rating, which is the highest of this top group, while the implied Vegas run total of 3.6 is the lowest.
Unlike Wheeler and Woodruff, Sonny Gray had been a mess over the course of the season, but he has been very good over his last six starts. He’s exceeded points expectation 60% of the time and had a 75% Consistency Rating for the month. The salary has dropped $1,300 from his last start, and he now gets to face a Cubs team that has a .160 wOBA, by far the lowest on the slate.
Since returning to action, Chris Sale was great in his first three starts, exceeding 20 DraftKings points in each one. In his most recent start, he only put up 9.5 DraftKings points against the Rays, the same team he faces today. The three strikeouts were surprising, considering the Rays are third in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. There’s upside for Sale as the matchup is generally good for strikeouts, and he has the highest swinging-strike rate among the top four pitchers. That said, he’s also posting the highest FIP and has the lowest projected pitch count.
Value
Bryse Wilson has a 5.25 FIP, 5.98 K/9, and 1.69 HR/9. Yuck. Also, he’s only $5,600 on DraftKings and gets a matchup against a Tigers team that is second in strikeouts and 17th in ISO against right-handed pitching. The .260 wOBA is the fourth-lowest on the slate, and the Bargain Rating of 97% on the Bales Model is tops by a wide margin. Over his last four starts, he’s gone for 1.05, 22.85, 17.3, and 6.85 DraftKings points, so the floor is low, but there is a modicum of upside.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
It’s a New York state of mind as the top projected points stack are the New York Yankees and the New York Mets. A five-player Yankees stack will cost 24.5K on DraftKings with a projection of 43.6 points, while the Mets will cost 20.3K with a 43.5 projection.
Yankees:
- Anthony Rizzo (L)
- D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- Giancarlo Stanton (R)
- Joey Gallo (L)
- Aaron Judge (R)
The Yankees have the highest wOBA on the slate at .343. They get to face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a respectable 3.8 FIP but only 7.29 K/9. He has been good limiting the long ball as the HR/9 is only 1.08 but, in two starts this season against the Yankees, he’s produced 8.1 and 28.95 DraftKings points. Over the past three seasons, Ryu has faced the Yankees five times. Per the Trends Tool:
According to the Vegas Dashboard, the Yankees are projected for 5.1 runs, the second-highest total on the slate.
Against left-handed pitching, the big boppers are Stanton and Judge, as they have ISOs of .207 and .250, respectively. Gallo strikes out a whopping 44.2% against lefties, but he has a .146 ISO against them, and Ryu only has a 19% strikeout rate against left-handed batters. Rizzo and LeMahieu have paltry ISO numbers, but the OPS is .785 and .723.
Mets:
- Pete Alonso (R)
- Jonathan Villar (S)
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Michael Conforto (L)
- Jeff McNeil (L)
The Mets face a lefty today, and usually, that’s not a good thing as they are ninth in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against them on the season. It’s no ordinary lefty they face, though, as Patrick Corbin takes the hill. Corbin has a 7.1 SO/9, 1.9 HR/9, and the WHIP is 1.4, the second-highest on the slate. The Mets have the third-highest wOBA, and they are projected for 5 runs, the fourth-highest. Corbin has a 20% Consistency Rating this month and has produced 60% Duds. In two meetings against the Mets this season, Corbin has gone for 24.5 and 1 DraftKings points and allowed two home runs in each. The Nationals bullpen also has allowed the fourth-highest FIP in all of baseball.
Corbin really struggles against right-handed bats, as the K/9 is 6.9 compared to 8.54, and he’s allowed 2.58 HR/9. Pete Alonso has a .248/.356/.591 slash against left-handed pitching with a whopping .343 ISO and has homered in both games against Corbin.
Other Hitters
Hunter Renfroe will likely bat leadoff for the Red Sox against Ryan Yarbrough, who has had some struggles with righties this season. The K/9 is 6.31 compared to 9.82 against lefties, and he’s allowed 1.58 HR/9 to righties. Renfroe has a .284/.378/.534 slash with a .250 ISO against left-handed pitching. According to the Player Model, Renfroe has a positive .145 wOBA difference and .132 ISO difference.
Whit Merrifield doesn’t have as much of a positive wOBA and ISO difference as Renfroe, but it’s still positive nonetheless. While he’s not cheap at $5,300, he gets a fabulous matchup against Orioles pitching. According to the Bales Model, the starter, Zac Lowther, has the lowest rating and has the highest FIP on the slate. The Orioles bullpen has allowed the third-highest FIP in MLB. Merrifield will likely bat leadoff for the Royals, who are projected for 5.3 runs, tied for the highest on the slate.
Ryan Mountcastle will likely bat second for an Orioles team that is projected for 5.3 runs. The Player Model has him with a positive difference in both wOBA and ISO. He faces Kris Bubic, a lefty who has allowed a 5.75 FIP and 1.87 HR/9 to righties. The Royals bullpen has also allowed the 11th-highest FIP. Against left-handed pitching, Mountcastle has a .287/.333/.533 slash with a .247 ISO.
Value Play
Austin Hays is only $3,300, and he will likely bat third for the Orioles. I just went over Bubic and the Royals bullpen in the Mountcastle section. Hays has a .129 wOBA difference and .265 ISO difference, the fourth-highest on the slate. Against left-handed pitching this season, he has a .304/.343/.532 slash with a .228 ISO.
Pictured above: Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge
Credit: Rich Schultz/Getty Images
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