The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We’ll be using Bales Player Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
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Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today in our Player Models are:
- Corbin Burnes (R)
- Zack Wheeler (R)
- Robbie Ray (L)
- German Marquez (R)
Corbin Burnes has the top rating in the Bales Model and is projected to score 25.23 DraftKings points with a ceiling of 41.8. On the season, he’s been fantastic, sporting a 1.65 FIP, 16.2% swinging-strike rate, and a minuscule 0.34 HR/9. In 133 innings, he’s struck out 180 batters with only 26 walks.
The Giants are sixth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, and our Vegas Dashboard has their run total at 3.5, so the matchup is a good one. There is some risk as San Francisco is first in ISO against right-handed pitching, and Burnes is coming off an outing where he scored just 9.5 DraftKings points. That said, he’s gone for over 20 DraftKings points in 16 of his 22 starts this season and owns a 65% Consistency Rating in our Player Models.
Zack Wheeler went for 49.45 DraftKings four starts ago against the lowly Mets. Since then, he’s gone for 13.9, 12.2, and 22 DraftKings points. Our Player Model shows that he’s been consistent in 60% of his starts on the year. Overall, he owns a 12.7% swinging-strike rate, 2.58 FIP, and has struck out 204 batters in 176.2 innings while walking 36 and allowing 14 home runs.
Wheeler is currently projected for 25.13 DraftKings points with a ceiling of 41.7, which puts him on par with Burnes. The Nationals rank only 26th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching but are only 24th in ISO, so the matchup isn’t terribly frightening. Wheeler has faced the Nationals five times this season and has averaged 16.06 DraftKings points with a -2.06 Projected Plus/Minus and 40% Consistency Rating, per the FantasyLabs Trends tool:
Burnes and Robbie Ray have been on different trajectories this season. Burnes began the season with four consecutive games with at least 30 DraftKings points. In his last five starts, though, he a high of 49.6 DraftKings points but has gone below 22 points in all four games with two of those single-digit affairs.
On the other hand, Ray opened the season with two stinkers but has steadily improved as the season has progressed. There’s been volatility, but he’s scored at least 35 DraftKings points in his two most recent starts with 14 and 11 strikeouts while exceeding double-digit strikeout number seven times.
Our Player Model has him with an 80% Consistency Rating, and his salary has dropped $100 from his last outing. The matchup isn’t great as the Orioles are 18th in strikeouts and seventh in ISO against left-handed pitching, but Vegas has them projected for only 3.2 runs, the lowest on the slate.
German Marquez has scored two or fewer DraftKings points in two of the last three starts. That said, I always enjoy rostering him because people get scared off, especially when he’s at home. His FIP at home is 3.51 compared to 3.34 on the road; he’s actually allowed more home runs on the road.
Anyways, the ERA is much higher on the road, but much of that looks to be BABIP-fueled. He’s on the road today in Texas and has to deal with the DH, but Texas is 12th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and only 23rd in ISO. The model has Marquez with a 72% Consistency Rating and a 34% Upside Rating. On the season, he’s posted a 3.51 FIP with a 12.8% swinging-strike rate. Marquez does a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the park and has only allowed 15 home runs in 150 innings, many of those in Coors Field.
Value
Luis Patino has a tough matchup as he faces off against the Boston Red Sox, who are second in ISO against right-handed pitching. That said, Patino is priced at $7,200, and our projections have him projected for 18.33 DraftKings points with a ceiling of 29.8 points.
On the season, he has an 11% swinging-strike rate and 4.71 FIP. He’s also allowed nine home runs and walked 21 batters in only 51.2 innings. Patino did face Boston three starts ago and threw 103 pitches in six innings while allowing four earned, six hits (two home runs), and walked three while striking out seven. Those numbers were good for 14.1 DraftKings points.
The floor is low, but Vegas has the Red Sox projected for only 4.0 runs, and he did display upside against the Yankees a month ago when he struck out eight batters in six innings for 30.5 DraftKings points.
Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Today’s top projected points stack is the San Diego Padres, projected for 38.3 DraftKings points while utilizing $19.6K in total salary:
- Manny Machado (R)
- Jake Cronenworth (L)
- Tommy Pham (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
The Padres are implied to score 5.6 runs, which is second to the Blue Jays at 5.9. They get to face Arizona pitching which has been #notgood. Tyler Gilbert (L) gets the start for the Diamondbacks and has the second-lowest point projection on the slate.
While the FIP is respectable at 3.65, the swinging-strike rate is only 7.1% in 22.2 MLB innings pitched this season. Once he’s out of the game, the Diamondbacks bullpen takes front and center, and they have the highest FIP in MLB while being 5th in HR/9 allowed.
Other Hitters
At the time of writing, George Springer is the highest-rated batter in the Bales Model, while Trea Turner is just below him. Turner has 20 home runs, 83 runs, 56 RBI, and 26 stolen bases on the season. The walk rate is 6.1%, while the strikeout rate is only 17.5%. The slash is .323/.369/.516 with a .193 ISO.
He bats leadoff for a Dodgers team that is projected for 5.4 runs. Drew Smyly (L) gets the nod for the Braves, and Turner has absolutely crushed lefties this season: .398/.440/.683 slash with a .285 ISO. Overall, he possesses one of the strongest wOBA and ISO differentials among all hitters in our models over the last 12 months. Historically, hitters batting from the No. 1 spot on teams with comparable Vegas data have averaged a +1.30 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, per our Trends tool.
The power/speed combo means there are multiple paths to fantasy goodness.
Josiah Gray is on the mound for the Nationals, who has excellent swing-and-miss stuff (17.2% swinging-strike rate), but he’s been prone to the long ball in his brief 36-inning MLB career. Gray has allowed a whopping 12 home runs and is sporting a 6.33 FIP and has been generous to both righties and lefties.
Meanwhile, Odubel Herrera is only $3,900 and will likely bat leadoff for the Phillies. The Bales Model has him rated as the seventh-best hitter on the slate. Against right-handed pitching this season, Herrera has a .252/.302/.456 slash with a .204 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 15.3%, and nine of his 12 home runs have come off a righty.
Yordan Alvarez isn’t rated too highly in the model because he’s priced at $5,900. That said, I do like him a lot tonight. He boasts 10th-highest Ceiling Projection in our models and gets to face off against Chris Flexen, who has been decent this season with a 3.79 FIP and 0.9 HR/9.
Flexen has faced the Astros twice this season, allowing nine and 10 hits. In the first meeting, sans Alvarez, he was able to wiggle out with only allowing one earned run. In the most recent start a month ago, he got blasted for seven home runs with Alvarez in the lineup. Alvarez went 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs in that game.
Value Plays
Every time the Dodgers play a lefty, I get so excited because I get to insert Albert Pujols into the lineup because he’s often sub-$3,000 on DraftKings. Against left-handed pitching this season, Pujols has a .298/.336/.595 slash with a whopping .298 ISO. Smyly has a 5.18 FIP against righties and has allowed 1.85 HR/9. Pujols is ranked the 15th highest-rated batter according to the Bales Model for Monday’s slate.
Pictured above: Albert Pujols
Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
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