The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 8-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $10,000 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,000, NYY vs PHI
- Jacob deGrom (R) $10,700, NYM @ ATL
- Sonny Gray (R) $10,500, CIN vs CLE
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,000, LAD @ SD
Cole headlines the Monday slate against the Phillies as the highest-priced pitcher, making his first start at Yankee Stadium.
The 29-year-old solidified himself as one of the best in the game last season, posting a 2.50 ERA and 2.64 Field Independent Pitching (FIP). His opening showings against the Orioles and Nationals inspire optimism that he will continue to dominate against the Phillies on Monday.
Cole’s Vegas matchup jumps off the page as one of the best values with the Yankees as -310 favorites, implying a 75.6% chance of winning. The Phillies are implied to score 3.3 runs, which is the lowest on today’s slate.
Cole is a strong option in all formats, and he could carry lower ownership than usual given the other pitchers on Monday’s slate. He is projected for 42.00 points in the Bales Model, which ranks first among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Another stud pitcher on the slate is Jacob deGrom, who has been his dominant self to start in 2020. The 32-year-old won his second Cy-young in a row in 2019 as he posted a 2.43 ERA and 2.67 FIP. His strikeouts per nine innings pitched (K/9) rose to a career-high 11.25.
deGrom faces an Atlanta Braves lineup that he’s been great against. deGrom’s recent history against Atlanta is encouraging, with a 3.08 ERA and 191 Base Performance Value (BPV) against the Braves last season.
deGrom’s Vegas matchup jumps off the page as one of the better values, as well. The Braves are implied to score 3.38 runs, the fourth lowest on today’s slate. deGrom is a strong option today and is projected for 39.70 points in the Bales Model, which ranks second among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Gray comes into Monday’s game against the Indians as the third-highest priced pitcher. The 30-year-old is having another great year, with a 0.71 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts in 13 IP.
The righty regained his form last year, posting a 2.87 ERA and 3.42 FIP. His opening showings against the Tigers and Cubs inspire optimism that he can establish himself as an ace.
Gray’s Vegas matchup looks great, as well. The Indians are implied to score 3.7 runs, which are the second-lowest on today’s slate. The Reds are -145 favorites, implying that they have a 58.67% chance to win the game.
Gray could carry lower ownership than usual given that Cole and deGrom are on Monday’s slate. He is projected for 30.67 points in the Bales Model.
Buehler is the fourth pitcher on Monday’s slate that will cost over $10,000. He looked a little shaky in his 2020 debut against Houston, striking out three Astros and conceding two runs through 3 2/3 innings. The 25-year-old followed up his rookie year with a great sophomore campaign. The righty registered a 3.26 ERA and 3.01 FIP. His strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) rose from 9.90% in 2018 to 10.61% last season.
Buehler faces another tough test today in the San Diego Padres. Buehler’s Vegas matchup is less-than-ideal, but his team history against San Deigo is encouraging. Buehler posted a 0.60 ERA and 278 BPV against the Padres last year, and his expected ERA in this matchup is 1.45.
Buehler is projected for 34.37 points in the Bales Model.
Values
Frankie Montas has not been able to go deep in games yet due to poor control. The 27-year-old faces off against a familiar foe in the Seattle Mariners. In 2019, Montas had a 2.54 expected ERA and 221 BPV against the Mariners.
Montas was suspended for PED use in 2019, but before that he was dominant. He has the skills to be a No. 1 starter. With that said, it’s difficult to not like him today given his matchup.
The Mariners are implied to score 3.8 runs. Montas has a 67.24 rating on the Bales Model, which is the second-highest behind Cole. As a result, Montas stands out as a strong fantasy option on FanDuel, where he can be found at $7,700.
Mike Soroka has been nothing short of spectacular in 2020. The 22-year-old has an elite 1.59 ERA and is facing the New York Mets for the second time. He shut them down over six innings on opening day.
Now, Soroka has an excellent opportunity to follow-up on that stellar performance against the Mets, who will be missing Yoenis Cespedes after he opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season. Look for Soroka to continue to build on his dominance of the Mets.
Soroka could be undervalued as he is opposed by deGrom. He can be found on FanDuel for $8,500.
Fastball
Alec Mills is pitching at home against the Kansas City Royals. He gave up two runs in six innings in his first start of 2020 against the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs are averaging 5.22 runs per game in 2020 compared to 4.0 for the Royals.
Mills has the third-highest rating on the Bales Model at 63.76. He’s cheap on FanDuel at $7,000.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
- 1. Mike Yastrzemski (L)
- 2. Alex Dickerson (L)
- 3. Donovan Solano (R)
- 4. Brandon Belt (L)
Total Salary: $13,900
The Giants’ top stack will leave you with quite a bit of money left on FanDuel. That’s perfect on a day that Cole and deGrom pitch. The Giants implied team total of 6.2 runs ranks second on today’s slate.
San Francisco matches up against Rockies right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez, who is making his first start of 2020. Gonzalez pitched to a 5.64 FIP in 2019.
Yastrzemski is projected to be the Giant with the highest ownership percentage. He is expected to bat leadoff in the lineup and will receive ample opportunities against Gonzalez and the Rockies. Yastrzemski has been scorching hot to start the 2020 season, hitting .343 with two home runs and five runs batted in. He is the highest-rated player according to the Bales Model today with a 79.10 rating and is priced on FanDuel at $3,800.
On DraftKings, the Colorado Rockies own the slate’s top four-man stack:
- 1. David Dahl (L)
- 2. Trevor Story (R)
- 3. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 4. Nolan Arenado (R)
Total Salary: $22,400
The Rockies are implied for 7.0 runs, which ranks first on the main slate. Moreover, they are facing a San Francisco team that is ranked 31st in runs per game allowed this season.
Story stands out as a value at $5,900 and boasts a ceiling of 40.60. The 27-year-old is off to a scorching hot start in 2020. He is hitting .345 with four home runs and two stolen bases. Story is a career .302 hitter with 81 home runs at home compared to a .251 hitter on the road with 46 home runs. Lucky for Story and the Rockies, this one will be played in Colorado with the elevation.
Other Batters
Finding value is going to be important if you are looking to roster an expensive stack or a top-end pitcher on today’s slate, and Marcus Semien stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He is priced at $3,300 against Seattle lefty Justice Sheffield. Sheffield is a top-rated prospect who has not been very good in the majors. He has a 12.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 2020.
Nelson Cruz is another potential value option — even at his price of $4,200 on FanDuel. The Twins are implied for 5.7 runs against Derek Holland and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Cruz’s numbers against Gonzalez are scary. In 27 at-bats against the southpaw, Cruz has three home runs and a .368 expected batting average. Cruz has a ceiling of 42.20 and a rating over 70 according to the Bales Model
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