Our MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two pitchers on today’s slate are priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Zac Gallen (R) $9,700, ARI vs OAK
- Hyun-jin Ryu (L) $9,300, TOR @ BAL
Gallen headlines the Monday slate as the highest-priced pitcher.
Gallen broke out as a rookie in 2019 and has started 2020 on the right foot. The 24-year-old has a 2.74 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 23 innings. Gallen’s strikeout per nine innings pitched (K/9) has risen to a career-high 10.96 in 2020. But he will face off against the dangerous Oakland Athletics on Monday
His opening showings against the Astros, Rockies, Padres, and Dodgers show he is no fluke. The fact that Gallen has had success against those high-powered offenses inspire optimism that he will continue to have success on Monday.
Gallen comes into his fifth start of 2020 with 28 strikeouts and a 147 a Base Performance Value (BPV). He is tied for the second-highest ceiling on today’s slate at 45.3, per our MLB Models.
Oakland is top 5 in the MLB offensively so far in 2020 and looks to make it five wins in a row on Monday. The A’s are fifth in the MLB in runs scored and have an implied run total of 4.6. Gallen has proved that he is the real deal but be careful with him as the A’s have been hitting everything in site recently.
Another stud pitcher on the slate is Hyun-jin Ryu, who will face off against the surprising Baltimore Orioles. He’s posted a career high 10.8 K/9 in 2020. Ryu has an ERA of 4.05, but his expected ERA is 3.59. Ryu also has a FIP of 4.19 and an expected FIP of 3.60.
The Orioles are implied to score 4.2 runs, which is the fourth-lowest on today’s slate. Ryu is a strong option today and projected for 29.48 points, which ranks second among the slate’s starting pitchers.
Values
Matthew Boyd is coming off a career year in 2019. The 29-year-old comes into his fifth start of 2020 with a 10.24 ERA and 5.44 xFIP. Boyd has some really bad numbers so far in 2020 but looking deeper, he has been very unlucky as he has given up a .410 average on balls in play.
Boyd has struggled to find the strike zone in 2020 with a 48% strike percentage. In his career, Boyd has averaged a 69% strike percentage. He is being undervalued in this one due to his horrific start to the year.
Boyd is projected for 30.01 points, which is the highest on today’s slate. As a result, Gibson stands out as a strong fantasy option on FanDuel, where he can be found at $7,200.
Ross Stripling has a 3.97 ERA and 4.79 xFIP. The 30-year-old was hit hard by both Arizona and San Diego after a strong showing to begin 2020 against San Francisco.
Stripling will face off against Seattle, which is averaging 3.74 runs per game (last in MLB). Stripling is the highest-rated pitcher in the Bales Model at 61.56. The Mariners are implied to score 3.7 runs, which is the lowest on today’s slate. Stripling can be found on FanDuel at $8,100.
Fastballs
Jordan Yamamoto has not been very good in 2020, illustrated by his 9.82 ERA. The 24-year-old has been unlucky as he has a 5.59 xERA on the year. He faces off against a New York Mets team that averages 4.3 runs per game.
Yamamoto has the second-highest rating in the Bales Model at 54.67, but his 9.82 ERA is going to keep his ownership at bay today. If you are looking for a shot in the dark, then Yamamoto is your guy. He can be found on FanDuel at a price of $5,600
Touki Toussaint has not been very impressive in 2020 with a 7.27 ERA. The 24-year-old has been extremely unlucky as he has a 3.16 expected ERA and a 4.12 FIP. Toussaint will look to rebound and turn around his 2020 season on Monday against the Washington Nationals. He can be found on FanDuel at $7,100.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $15,100
The Dodgers are implied for 6.5 runs, which ranks first on the main slate. Moreover, they are facing a Seattle Mariners team that is ranked 28th in runs allowed this season.
Betts stands out as a value at $4,300 and boasts a bargain rating of 88%. The 27-year-old has eight home runs and is hitting .314 in 2020. Betts has the second-highest rating on the Bales Model at 78.21. He has the second-highest ceiling at 49.6 and is projected for 14.11 points.
Betts is projected to hit leadoff against Justin Dunn, who has a 4.85 ERA and 7.29 expected ERA. Look for Betts to be on base early and often in this one. Monday’s slate is a perfect day to grab the big Dodger bats with the starting pitching market not being as strong.
On DraftKings, the New York Yankees own the slate’s top four-man stack:
- 1. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 2. Luke Voit (R)
- 3. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 4. Giovani Urshela (R)
Total Salary: $18,400
The Yankees are implied for 5.9 runs, which ranks second on the main slate.
Gleyber Torres stands out as a value at $4,600 and boasts a ceiling of 30.90. The 23-year-old is off to a shaky start in 2020, hitting .254 with one home run. In his last 7 games, Torres has heated up and is hitting .455. Torres is projected to hit 4th, which will give him ample opportunities against Martin Perez and the Red Sox. Perez is not good, and the Red Sox have one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Other Batters
Freddie Freeman stands out on FanDuel as he is priced at $3,900 against Washington right-hander Anibal Sanchez, who has an ERA over 9 this year. Freeman has hit over .300 in his career vs Sanchez.
Jose Abreu is another potential value option and can be found on FanDuel at $3,000. The 33-year-old is hitting .250 with four home runs in 2020 and faces off today against Tigers Lefty Matt Boyd. He has hit two home runs with a .394 Batting average in his career vs Boyd.
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