Monday’s slate is a bit robust compared to what baseball fans have become accustomed to because off days have been placed throughout the week compared to the “traditional” days of Monday and Thursday.
Monday’s main slate features 12 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Four team aces top the pricing on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,000, NYY @ TOR
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,700, TB vs TEX
- Zack Greinke (R) $9,800, HOU vs DET
- Sandy Alcantara (R) $9,500, MIA @ ATL
Gerrit Cole gets the Jekyll and Hyde offense from Toronto (in Florida). Cole has the best median and ceiling projections among all expected starters, but because of his price is projected to have lower ownership than fellow aces Tyler Glasnow and Zack Greinke on FanDuel and DraftKings. Cole is susceptible to the long ball and the Blue Jays are in the top half of baseball in homers, but are bottom 10 in slugging percentage. It has been all or nothing for the pride of Canada, a good thing for Cole.
Glasnow has one of the worst Projected Plus/Minus stats but is the top pitcher on both sites according to the Bales Model. The righty went six inning in both starts this season and has allowed one earned run. Glasnow can drain the Texas Rangers offense of whatever pride remains. The Rangers scored four runs in three games against the Padres and were no-hit Friday. They were also shut out Sunday in what was an accidental bullpen game for the Padres. Expect Glasnow to top ownership and log a win. Fingers crossed he can go six-plus innings again, something that projections have not expected in either start in 2021.
The Detroit Tigers have the second-worst batting average, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), and Offensive WAR in the American League. Zack Greinke may not have the strikeout upside of Cole and Glasnow, but he has the most advantageous matchup among the elite pitchers.
Believe it or not, the Atlanta Braves’ offense has been bad to start 2021. There are signs of life, but the lineup is top 10 in strikeout percentage and bottom three in walk percentage. Sandy Alcantara has taken advantage of two mediocre-to-bad lineups in his two starts this season that has turned into a 1.50 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched. Atlanta has been hitting for power but is still a bottom offense to target.
Values
Freddy Peralta may not register as the best value using the Bargain Rating stat, but he is projected to have the second-most strikeouts using K Predictor. Peralta and Milwaukee welcome the Chicago Cubs after their offense looked miserable against Pittsburgh of all teams. The Cubs have the worst batting average in baseball and strike out more than any National League team. Heading into Sunday’s contest, the Cubs were the only team in baseball to strike out twice as much as they collected hits. Peralta ranks as a top-five option.
If you are more of a dart thrower, John Gant and Eric Fedde square off in St. Louis. The Nationals and Cardinals sport negative WAR offenses and are minus baserunning teams as well. The Nationals are getting hits but not scoring. The Cardinals are getting on base and, you guessed it, not scoring. Gant has the top Projected Plus/Minus on both sites and both pitchers should be low-owned. Gant is also tied for second among starters with five Pro Trends. You must start two pitchers on DraftKings, and if paying down is an option for your lineup construction, these two should be in consideration.
Fastballs
Robbie Ray returns to the Blue Jays’ rotation against New York. The strikeout upside is appealing, but he requires a lot of pitches to do little at times. He threw a 63-pitch simulated game last week and I have concerns with how long he goes in his return.
Dane Dunning is one of my favorite pivots against Tampa Bay. The biggest concern with Dunning is innings. He has been paired with a long reliever (Wes Benjamin last week) as an insurance policy, but he pitched well enough to go five. The Rays have been unspectacular early this season (102 wRC+) and have maybe two intimidating hitters at the moment. Dunning does not have massive upside, but could eek out a win and be a unique play.
The weather in Chicago could lead to a high-scoring game. The actual temperature is expected to be 55 degrees but with 12 mph winds blowing out to left field. Cleveland has been excellent against southpaws like Carlos Rodon (.822 OPS) while the White Sox lead baseball in walks taken, Tristan McKenzie’s biggest issue.
Notable Stack
Zack Greinke should get some run support from his offense.
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (R)
Total Salary: $15,800
This foursome is also the top stack on DraftKings. Jose Altuve is the only Astros hitter in the top 10 on both sites, with Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley joining him on DraftKings. The Astros are projected to score 5.2 runs using our Vegas Model, second highest on the slate.
Another stack that looks good and comes cheaper is the Oakland Athletics. They have been the worst offense in the American League but get a chance to tee off against Madison Bumgarner in hitter-friendly Arizona. The Athletics-Diamondbacks game also has a higher game total than Tigers-Astros.
Other Hitters
Starling Marte has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel today. He has fantasy points in each game since Opening Day and stole his second base of the season Sunday. Huascar Ynoa looked good against a Nationals offense that has had issues to start 2021 because of COVID and is still unknown as a pitcher. I think Marte and the Marlins offense can do enough to keep him from a second consecutive clean sheet.
Brandon Nimmo has reached base in all five games he has played and should be in the lineup against righty Chase Anderson. The weather could be an issue for Phillies-Mets, so be sure to have a backup plan if you want to roster the Mets’ hottest hitter.
Matt Olson has been a reverse splits hitter to start the season. He has two extra-base hits against southpaws with one leaving the park and has a 444-61 wRC+ split. Madison Bumgarner has allowed two extra-base hits (one home run) and two walks to lefties in two starts. The Bales Model knows this and has Olson as the top first baseman on FanDuel and a top three play on DraftKings.
Pedro Severino has hit zero balls softly at home according to Baseball Info Solutions. He also has his only home run against left-handed pitching. Seattle and lefty Justus Sheffield travel out east to take on the Orioles.
Photo Credit: Sarah Stier/Getty Images
Pictured: Gerrit Cole
