The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features nine games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($10,300) Los Angeles Dodgers (-220) vs. Atlanta Braves
If there’s a positive to Kershaw getting pulled after seven perfect innings last time out, it’s that at least he’ll be fresh coming into this start. Kershaw threw only 80 pitches while striking out 13 last week. He’ll likely be allowed to throw a few more this time around, though expecting the same efficiency wouldn’t be wise.
He’s still Clayton Kershaw, though. The Braves have a solid lineup but are still implied for only 3.3 runs, which is one of the lowest marks on the board. Kershaw checks all of the usual secondary metric boxes as well. He leads the main slate in SIERA, strikeout percentage, swinging strike percentage, and walk rate.
Of course, he’s also expected to be the slate’s most popular pitcher. He leads our Ownership Projections for tonight. A few pitchers stand out, though, so it’s ok to eat the chalk on Kershaw, particularly if going a bit more off the board with your other pitcher. He’s not the best value from a Pts/Sal projection, but his floor is as high as anyone on the slate. I prefer him for cash games, but the GPP case is there as well.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Frankie Montas ($7,300) Oakland A’s (-192) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Montas is one of two pitchers with a better opponent total than Kershaw on the slate. He’s $2,000 cheaper than the other such pitcher — Tylor Megill — making him far and away the slate’s best value.
Montas is taking on an Orioles team that has had little offensive success to start the season. They’re hitting just .206 as a team with very little power, hitting a league-worst four homers. That’s despite playing in one of the better home run parks for five of their nine games so far. They travel to Oakland for Monday’s contest, which has a slate-leading 78 Park Factor for pitchers.
The Orioles have also struck out at the second-highest rate in the league this season. That’s good news for Montas, who boasts a top-five strikeout rate among Monday’s starters. He hung six Ks in each of his first two starts this season, but we have his prediction just under seven thanks to the matchup.
He leads the FantasyLabs projection set in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projection. He’s just behind Kershaw in Ownership Projection, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see that flipped tonight. Saving salary will be essential with a game at Coors Field, and he’s an outstanding value for cash games and GPPs alike.
Sean Manaea ($9,100) San Diego Padres (-178) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Manaea leads all pitchers in median projection in THE BAT’s projections for Monday. He’s essentially a budget version of Kershaw, with worse metrics but a far easier matchup against the Reds. Cincinnati has the worst offensive WAR as a team at -1.1 so far this season.
Manaea is no Kershaw of course, but he has solid numbers in his own right. He’s struck out 13 in as many innings to start the season and has a solid SIERA of 3.63 dating back to the start of last year. This game boasts a Park Factor and weather Rating over 70 for pitchers.
We also have Manaea projected at less ownership than Kershaw and Montas, which helps for tournaments. He’s a fine play in cash games as well, particularly if the $1,200 in savings from Kershaw enables you to fit pricier bats in your lineup.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Aaron Nola ($9,900) Philadelphia Phillies (-166) at Colorado Rockies
Nola ranks just behind Kershaw in all of the key metrics on the slate, including SIERA and strikeout rate. Of course, Nola is pitching at Coors Field, the worst possible park for a pitcher. That should keep ownership on Nola way lower than we’d expect for a pitcher of his caliber.
The think air of Coors Field doesn’t matter if hitters don’t put the bat on the ball, and we have Nola projected for the most strikeouts on the slate. Of course, one or two mistakes could turn this one ugly in a hurry. The Rockies still have a solid offense even without Trevor Story and Nolan Arrenado, with the second-best team wOBA in the league.
Nola isn’t for the faint of heart today, but he could pay off big time for those with the gumption to click his name. He’s undoubtedly a GPP-only option, though.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Connor Joe (1) ($4,000)
- Charlie Blackmon (2) ($3,900)
- Kris Bryant (3) ($4,200)
- C.J. Cron (4) ($4,400)
- Ryan McMahon (5) ($4,300)
Rockies stacks at home lead our Tournament Model in aggregate rating in what’s becoming a seemingly daily occurrence. The Rockies continue to be far cheaper than one would expect them to be at home. The top five hitters in their lineup cost a combined $20,800 today, leaving plenty of room to fit other expensive pieces around them. All of that despite looking like a solid unit to start the season, as mentioned above.
The Rockies are implied to score five runs tonight, trailing only the Astros and their opponent, Philadelphia. Deciding between the Rockies bats and Nola will be a huge decision point for today’s slate. Ownership on both will be lower than usual, and one or the other has the potential to be a slate-breaker.
My personal preference is Nola over the Rockies bats, though the Rockies could also beat up on Philly relief pitching. I want exposure to both, especially at reasonably low ownership.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by Ceiling belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
This should come as no surprise given the Phillies’ massive 6.3 implied total. Unlike the Rockies, we also don’t have to worry about the pitching matchup. The Phillies will be facing Chad Kuhl, one of the slate’s worst pitchers by the numbers.
Kuhl ranks bottom-three on the slate in SIERA and walk rate, while inducing ground balls at an average rate. That’s a problem when pitching at Coors Field, especially against the Phillies’ top-10 offense. Kuhl has struggled particularly against left-handed bats, allowing a .357 wOBA. That’s excellent news for Harper and Schwarber, who both do their best work against right-handed pitching.
This stack doesn’t come cheap, though, with an average salary of over $5,700 per player. Keep an eye on our Lineups page as we approach lock. Johan Carmago ($2,600) and Simon Muzziotti ($2,600) are expected to bat 8th and 9th respectively, and both hit from the left side of the plate. They could be part of a wrap-around stack that saves considerable salary.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Christian Yelich OF ($4,700 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Zach Thompson)
Yelich has yet to regain his MVP form from 2018 and 2019, batting under .250 over the past two seasons. He’s also struggled out of the gate this year. Still, it’s hard to ignore the reasonable price on a player with his upside, particularly in a good matchup. Milwaukee is implied for five runs, one of the best totals on the slate. They’re also taking on a pitcher in Thompson with dreadful numbers against left-handers.
Yelich’s batted-ball data also provides a reason for some optimism. His 70% hard-hit rate is outstanding, but his batting average on balls in play is 50 points below his career mark. While Yelich is still striking out too much, his average “should” be about 35 points higher than it currently sits.
Yelich and Brewers’ stacks could be a good contrarian option, with ownership condensing around the game at Coors Field, the Astros, and the Dodgers. It’s an excellent time to buy low on a former MVP whose Statcast data suggests will return to form.
Austin Nola C ($3,600 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo)
With Realmuto of the Phillies clearly the slate’s best raw option, Nola could go overlooked today. However, he’s a strong choice in his own right. He’s projected to bat third and is the cheapest catcher batting in the top three on today’s slate. That’s enough to consider him, but the juicy matchup is even better.
The left-handed Nick Lodolo struggled last time out in his first major league start. He allowed five runs — and two homers — in only four innings of action. Nola also does his best work against lefties, with positive differentials in both wOBA and ISO in our models. Nola ranks second in Projected Plus/Minus among catchers on the slate.
Rowdy Tellez 1B ($2,800 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Zach Thompson)
We have to save salary somewhere on today’s slate, and Tellez is one of the best options. He ranks top three on DraftKings and FanDuel in Projected Plus/Minus. Like Yelich, he’s another Brewers lefty bat, expected to hit fifth against Thompson. Thompson has a SIERA over a run worse than his ERA, so some regression could be in order.
Tellez is a high-variance option, with an equal number of 20-point games as scoreless ones (two apiece). At his sub-$3,000 salary, though, a 20-point performance has the potential to break the slate.
