The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s main slate features 7 games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET to start week two of the regular season.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Luis Patino ($7,800) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland A’s
While Monday’s slate features three pitchers priced at $9,000 or above on DraftKings, Patino tops them in projection. With most teams having played the same number of games so far, we’re looking at primarily fourth and fifth starters today. That’s certainly the case with Patino (Tampa’s fifth starter), but at least we don’t have to pay a premium for him.
In just under 100 career innings, Patino has fairly mediocre advanced metrics. His ERA (and advanced forms of ERA like FIP and SIERA) is above four, and his 1.37 WHIP is also subpar. His 22.7% strikeout rate is also roughly league average. However, Patino is just 22 years old, and he could take a leap forward this year.
That makes his first start the perfect time to get in early, especially against an anemic Oakland offense. Oakland is implied for just 3.3 runs, the lowest on the slate, and Tampa’s -221 moneyline odds also rank first. With a relative unknown, trusting oddsmakers to be on the right side of things is a solid strategy.
The biggest concern with Patino is how long he lasts into the start. He dealt with some nagging injuries in spring training that shuffled his starts around. Additionally, he averaged under five innings per appearance last season. (Though some of them were in relief of an “opener.”)
With the question marks surrounding his workload and his effectiveness, Patino profiles more as a GPP play. Fortunately, his Ownership projects to be reasonable. THE BAT (available in the FantasyLabs Marketplace) currently has him as only the fifth-most popular pitcher. He’s not a bad cash game play either thanks to his slate leading Pts/Sal mark, but that projection comes with a lot more uncertainty than other options.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Dylan Bundy ($5,600) Minnesota Twins (-131) vs. Seattle Mariners
Just behind Patino in the Pts/Sal projections is Bundy. Bundy has flashed at times in his MLB career, finishing top-10 in Cy Young voting in 2020. However, he’s coming off a very rough 2021 that saw him post an ERA north of six. Which Bundy shows up for the Twins is a big question, but he’s in a solid position to get off to a good start.
Bundy benefits from a pitcher-friendly home park and cool temperatures that amount to a solid 60 Weather Rating in our models. The Mariners have the third-lowest implied total on the slate, making Bundy an obvious value at only $5,600. (The pitchers facing teams with lower implied totals both cost at least $7,800.)
Bundy likely won’t blow you away with a big score, though. His strikeout prediction is a meager 4.67. However, this might be a slate where that’s not such a hindrance: only one pitcher is projected for more than six Ks. This looks like a slate where being able to fit the bets bats — while getting a reasonable score from your pitchers — rules the day. Bundy allows you to do just that as the cheapest favorite.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Alek Manoah ($10,200) Toronto Blue Jays (-109) at New York Yankees
Spending over $10,000 on DraftKings for a team’s fourth-best pitcher never feels good, particularly when that team is taking on the Yankees in a game that’s roughly a pick ’em. However, there are some mitigating factors with Manoah.
The 24-year old had a 9-2 record as a rookie last season, posting a 3.22 ERA and a solid 27.7% strikeout rate. He’s the most talented pitcher on today’s slate, though the range of outcomes is wide against a formidable Yankees lineup.
Conditions are favorable for pitchers in New York, with a weather rating of 81 that leads the slate. Keep an eye on the forecast though, since brief showers are expected in the area. It doesn’t look to be enough to rain the game out, but a delay generally means an early hook for starting pitchers.
Manoah leads the slate in strikeout prediction at over six, so if he can limit the runs against the free-swinging Yankees, his path to the slate’s best overall score is reasonably straightforward. With his high salary expected to limit ownership, he checks all the boxes as a GPP play.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by ceiling belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
- Shohei Ohtani (1) ($6,000)
- Mike Trout (2) ($5,600)
- Anthony Rendon (3) ($4,300)
- Jared Walsh (4) ($4,700)
- Jose Rojas (6) ($2,600)
With a shortage of high-quality pitching on the slate, we need to find as many points from our hitters as possible. Enter the Angels. The Angels lineup has disappointed to start the season, scoring over two runs only once so far. However, they’ve faced much stiffer starting pitching than they will today.
Miami’s starter Eliser Hernandez allows the most hard contact of any pitcher on the slate, which could spell trouble against the Angels’ sluggers. The Angles are implied for over five runs, which is always a good starting point when looking for offenses to stack.
Additionally, this is the only game with a favorable weather rating for hitters on the slate. While that’s mitigated a bit by Maimi’s pitcher-friendly park, none of the other parks in play are particularly strong for hitters either. It really comes down to talent though, with Ohtani and Trout projecting as the top two hitters on the slate.
The inclusion of the likely No. 6 hitter Rojas — as opposed to No. 5 Jo Adell — cuts down on the projected ownership and salary. It also gets one more left-handed hitter in the lineup. That’s crucial against Hernandez, who has allowed a .412 wOBA to left-handed batters compared to a .282 to right-handed batters throughout his career.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create your own aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by projected points belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves’ one through five stack comes in as the best overall option, projecting for over 50 points at a fairly reasonable salary. Like the Angels, the Braves are implied for more than five runs as they take on the Angels and lefty starter Josh Rogers.
Rogers has struggled mightily with right-handed hitters in his career — allowing a .320 batting average — but that figure drops to .171 vs. left-handers. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Matt Olson get the day off at first base to get another right-handed hitter in the lineup, and Olson has been considerably better against right-handed pitching in his career. If that ends up being the case, this stack will be even cheaper than currently projected.
Be sure to keep an eye on our Lineups page as we approach the 6:40 p.m. lock. (And keep in mind the slightly early start time!) Braces starters should be confirmed well before then.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Tony Kemp 2B ($3,300 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Oakland As at Tampa Bay Rays (Luis Patino)
With Patino looking to be one of the more popular pitchers — and the A’s implied for only 3.4 runs — A’s batters won’t be in high demand today. However, their lefties could provide some value. Kemp stands out in particular on FanDuel, where he has a 68% Bargain rating and dual 2B/OF eligibility.
Last season, Patino allowed an additional 100 points in wOBA when facing left-handed hitters. Kemp (and the other As lefties) are in a decent spot today. Additionally, Kemp is very cheap for a projected leadoff hitter. While he lacks huge upside thanks to a lack of power, he’s a decent salary saver. As an added bonus, Tropicana field is somewhat friendlier to lefties than righties.
Jorge Soler OF ($4,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels (Michale Lorenzen)
The Marlins have the top implied team total of any road team as they travel to Los Angeles to take on the Angels. That makes Soler the betting favorite (if such a thing existed) to lead the road squads in plate appearances. At only $4,100, he’s a fairly reasonable bargain.
Soler has solid power, with a .169 ISO against right-handed pitchers. It’s also a solid matchup, with Lorenzen posting a SIERA of almost five last season. That’s the second-worst mark on the slate. Marlins mini-stacks also make sense here, though they should begin with Soler. The top four hitters in Miami’s lineup all have positive leverage scores — a proprietary Labs metric that compares where a player ranks in ceiling projection to their projected ownership.
Jesse Winker OF ($5,000 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners (Dylan Bundy)
Bundy is projecting as one of the slate’s most popular pitchers. If you’re fading him, you can create additional leverage by targeting bats against him. Winker is the best of that bunch. The lefty slugger hit 24 home runs in only 110 games last season, leading to a .950 OPS.
This is a bit of a “pay up to be contrarian” spot, as not many people are rushing to pay $5,000 for a three-hole hitter on a team implied for only 4.3 runs. That makes him interesting against the notoriously volatile Bundy.
