The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a five-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Stud
Only one pitcher is priced above $9,200 on FanDuel:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $10,500, WSH vs. PHI
The Nationals are close to punching their ticket to the playoffs. They’re slightly ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the first Wild Card spot, and they own a four-game lead over the Cubs for the second. FanGraphs gives them a 98.1% chance of making the postseason, so all they have to do is avoid a monumental collapse.
They’ll send Corbin to the mound today vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, and he’s put together an excellent campaign in his first year in Washington. He’s pitched to a 3.10 ERA and 10.52 K/9, and his 4.9 Wins Above Replacement rank fourth in the National League. He’s also provided solid fantasy value, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.70 on FanDuel.
The Phillies represent a nice matchup for left-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup has struggled against southpaws over the past 12 months, posting a .315 wOBA and 29.7% strikeout rate. They’re currently implied for 3.8 runs, which is the third-lowest mark on the slate.
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46).
Corbin also provides a nice combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. His K Prediction of 6.5 ranks second on the slate, and he owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -26 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.99 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Basically, Corbin doesn’t wow you in any one particular category, but he has strong marks all across the board. That’s enough to make him viable in all formats, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.
Values
The Mets are just barely alive in the playoff race, and they basically need to win out to have any chance of playing in October. Luckily, they’re starting a three game series with the Marlins, who own the worst record in the NL by a considerable margin.
Steven Matz gets the ball in today’s matchup, and he’s put together a solid second half. He’s lowered his ERA to 3.29 since the All-Star break, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.47 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings. He’s also been dominant at home all season, pitching to a sparkling 1.94 ERA.
The Marlins have averaged the fewest runs per game this season, and they’ve been futile against both left- and right-handed starters. They rank just 29th in wRC+ vs. southpaws, and their projected lineup has posted a 25.2% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Matz leads the slate in both opponent implied team total (3.3 runs) and moneyline odds (-235), which makes him a steal at just $7,600 on DraftKings. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas data and salaries have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.87. Matz figures to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, but he’s tough to avoid at such a low price tag.
Adam Wainwright is another strong value on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s been outstanding over his past four starts, allowing just one earned run over 27.0 innings pitched.
He’s in a solid spot today vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50).
They’ve been subpar against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking just 21st in wRC+, and their implied team total of 4.2 runs is the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. Wainwright is also a -137 favorite despite pitching on the road.
The big concern with Wainwright is his lack of strikeout upside. He’s recorded three strikeouts or fewer in three of his past four starts, and the Diamondbacks have been one of the toughest teams to strike out this season. This doesn’t stand out as a slate where you’re going to need a ton of points from your pitchers, but its a concern nonetheless.
He basically can’t allow any runs if he’s going to return value at his current salary.
Fastballs
Caleb Smith: He’s the upside play for guaranteed prize pools. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.23 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 6.7 ranks first on the slate. The Mets are a tough matchup — they’re currently implied for 5.3 runs — but Smith figures to be underowned relative to his ceiling on a weak pitching slate.
Zach Elfin: Just find guys with the potential to pitch five innings is difficult on today’s slate. Eflin has a difficult matchup vs. the Nationals, but he’s coming off zero earned runs over seven innings vs. the Braves in his last start. His $6,800 salary on DraftKings also comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Bo Bichette (R)
- 2. Cavan Biggio (L)
- 3. Lourdes Gurriel (R)
- 5. Justin Smoak (S)
- 6. Randal Grichuk (R)
Total Salary: $22,800
The Blue Jays are currently implied for 6.1 runs, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. They’re also very reasonably priced on DraftKings, resulting in a slate-best Team Value Rating of 83. Smoak in particular stands out as an excellent value at just $3,800.
They’re taking on Orioles right-hander Chandler Shepherd, who has struggled after getting called up to the major leagues. He’s only pitched 11.0 innings, but he’s pitched to a 4.91 ERA and 5.21 xFIP over that time frame. The Blue Jays have shown improvement against right-handers over the second half of the season, ranking 13th in wRC+, so they can do some damage in this matchup.
Biggio has been at his best against right-handers since reaching the MLB level, posting a 122 wRC+. He’s displayed significantly more power against right-handers as well, with 13 of his 15 HRs coming against traditional pitchers.
Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Randal Grichuk (right), Cavan Biggio (8) and Bo Bichette (11).
The biggest concern with the Blue Jays is their likely ownership. Pairing their top hitters with Matz is going to be the default strategy for most DFS players, so you’re going to need to get creative with the rest of your lineup to avoid being too chalky.
The Blue Jays also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so let’s focus on the Tampa Bay Rays instead:
- 1. Joey Wendle (L)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Travis d’Arnaud (R)
- 5. Ji-Man Choi (L)
Total Salary: $12,700
Their implied team total of 5.0 runs ranks merely fourth on the slate, so they should be a more contrarian target. That said, they still have plenty of upside.
They’re taking on Red Sox right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, who has struggled to duplicate his success from last season. He’s pitched to a 5.66 ERA and 5.50 FIP, and opposing batters have averaged 1.86 HRs per nine innings.
Choi is expected occupy the No. 5 spot in the order, but he stands out as arguably their top option. He’s performed well against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .356 wOBA and .189 ISO, and his Statcast data from the past 15 days is outstanding. He’s posted an average distance of 277 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 60%, all of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
J.D. Davis is a nice source of savings on FanDuel, where his $2,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. Smith, and Davis has posted a 134 wRC+ vs. southpaws this season. He’s been particularly dominant when facing a southpaw at home given his 193 wRC+, and he’s expected to bat second in the Mets’ lineup.
If you’re looking for a contrarian batter with upside, consider Jarrod Dyson. He’s batting first for the Diamondbacks, and he’s crushed the ball recently. He’s posted an average distance of 262 feet, which represents an increase of +75 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Dyson can also do plenty of damage with his legs given his average of .181 steals per game over the past 12 months.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: New York Mets SP Steven Matz (32)
Photo Credit: Adam Hunger-USA Today Sports
