The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Happy Labor Day! Today’s slate is loaded with baseball. There’s an eight-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, two-game afternoon slate starting at 4:10 p.m. and a two-game night slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Two of today’s pitchers stand out above the rest on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $12,000, HOU @ MIL
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,400, LAD vs. COL
Neither of the pitchers are available on the main slate. Cole headlines the afternoon slate, while Buehler takes the mound for the night slate.
Let’s start with Cole. He’s put together a dominant season for the Houston Astros, pitching to a 2.85 ERA and 2.93 FIP. He’s also become arguably the best strikeout pitcher in baseball this season given his K/9 of 13.32. Cole has been particularly dominant from a fantasy perspective over his past 10 starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.18.
He’s in an interesting spot today vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. They can do a little bit of damage with the bat, ranking ninth in wRC+ against right-handers since the All-Star break. That said, they are also one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league. Their projected lineup has whiffed on 34.6% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which gives Cole massive strikeout upside. His K Prediction of 8.8 is the top mark among all of today’s starters.
Cole also enters this contest in solid Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of 201 feet, which represents a decrease of 15 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable strikeout upside and distance differentials have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.94 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Buehler got off to a slow start this season, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half. He’s dropped his ERA to 2.15 while increasing his K/9 to 12.87.
He’s been particularly dominant at home this season, and he’ll take the mound at Dodgers Stadium today in an excellent matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have struggled mightily when facing a right-hander away from Coors this season, ranking 29th in wRC+.
His Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. His -321 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day, while his 3.2 opponent implied team total ranks second. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.60.
Like Cole, Buehler also enters today’s start in strong recent form. He’s outperformed his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over his past two starts.
Values
It’s going to be tough to avoid Ryan Yarbrough in cash games on the main slate. He’s a particularly strong value on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
He leads all pitchers on today’s slates with an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs in an elite matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. He’s also the largest favorite on the main slate given his moneyline odds of -295. Pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.97 and a Consistency Rating of 61.9% on FanDuel.
The only real knock on Yarbrough is his lack of strikeout upside. He’s posted a K/9 of just 7.65 this season, and the Orioles’ projected lineup has struck out on just 24.5% of at-bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Yarbrough has recorded five strikeouts or fewer in six of his past eight appearances, including in his last matchup vs. the Orioles. With that in mind, he’s a fade candidate for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Mike Soroka is another strong value today on FanDuel, and he has significantly more upside vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Justin Verlander absolutely dominated the Blue Jays yesterday, recording 14 strikeouts and zero hits over nine innings.
Soroka obviously isn’t Verlander, but he’s still a pretty darn good pitcher. He’s pitched to a 2.44 ERA and 3.21 FIP this season despite a K/9 of just 6.89. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 ranks second on the main slate, while his moneyline odds of -252 rank third.
Still, what really sets this matchup apart is the Blue Jays’ strikeout rate. Their projected lineup has struck out on 36.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Kyle Hendricks: He’s coming off a poor start in his last outing, but he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball recently. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts, which makes him a strong bounce-back target vs. the Mariners. Their projected lineup has posted a paltry .219 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months.
Masahiro Tanaka: He has an excellent matchup vs. the Texas Rangers, who rank dead last in wRC+ against right-handers since the All-Star break. Pitching for the Yankees and their juggernaut offense also rewards Tanaka with some of the best moneyline odds on the slate.
Justus Sheffield: He’s struggled through his first three MLB appearances this season, posting a 7.94 ERA and 6.57 FIP. That said, he was considered an elite prospect, and he’s dirt-cheap at just $5,000 on DraftKings vs. the Chicago Cubs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
- 1. Eric Sogard (L)
- 2. Austin Meadows (L)
- 3. Tommy Pham (R)
- 4. Ji-Man Choi (L)
Total Salary: $13,000
The Rays’ implied team total of 5.8 runs ranks fourth on the main slate, but they have a lot of positive factors working in their favor. For starters, their implied team total has increased by 0.6 runs since opening, which is the largest increase on the slate. They’re also underpriced considering their implied team total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 95 on FanDuel.
They have a nice matchup today vs. Orioles right-hander Asher Wojciechowski. He’s struggled to a 5.12 ERA and 5.93 FIP this season, and he’s allowed opposing batters to average 2.33 HRs per nine innings. Woj has also struggled in particular against left-handers this season, surrendering a .384 wOBA, and three of the Rays’ top-four batters swing from the left side.
Choi has fared well against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .369 wOBA and .202 ISO, and he enters this contest in excellent recent form. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 251 feet over his past 11 games, which represents an increase of 29 feet compared to his 12-month average. He’s also exceeded his 12-month averages in distance and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
On the evening slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
- 5. Corey Seager (L)
- 6. Chris Taylor (R)
Total Salary: $22,500
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 5.8 runs ranks second on the evening slate. The Indians’ implied team total of 6.1 runs ranks first, and the White Sox and Rockies both have an implied team total of four runs or fewer. With that in mind, the Dodgers and Indians should garner most of the ownership. You’ll need to get creative if you choose to stack either of those offenses.
The Dodgers have plenty of upside today vs. Rockies right-hander Peter Lambert. He’s struggled mightily this season, pitching to a 6.63 ERA and 5.92 FIP. Those numbers are obviously inflated by Coors Field, but he’s still pitched to a dreadful 6.07 ERA on the road. The Dodgers rank second in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, so they can do some damage in this matchup.
Pederson stands out as their projected leadoff hitter. He’s destroyed right-handers over the past 12 months, averaging a .358 wOBA and .286 ISO, and he’s swung the bat well over the past 15 days. He’s posted an average distance of 236 feet and exit velocity of 94 mph, both of which represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
Kolten Wong has been on fire recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games on DraftKings. He’s recorded 11 hits over that time frame, including three doubles, two triples and one HR. His recent Statcast data suggests his recent production isn’t fluky, either: He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +33 feet and hard-hit differential of +11 percentage points, so he’s making elite contact at the moment. He’s expected to bat second for the Cardinals today vs. Giants right-hander Tyler Beede, and the Cards are currently implied for 5.3 runs.
The Cubs acquired Nick Castellanos before the trade deadline, and he’s having a huge impact for them. He’s posted an OPS of 1.062, and his 11 HRs over 29 games equals his mark over 100 games with the Tigers. He’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits today vs. Sheffield, and Castellanos has feasted on left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s posted a .432 wOBA and .272 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months, and the Cubs are implied for 6.1 runs on today’s slate. He’s a strong option at just $4,300.
Jeff McNeil is worth some consideration on FanDuel, where his $3,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. McNeil has been a hitting machine for the Mets this season, posting a .323 average, and he’s done his best work against right-handed pitchers. He’s facing a mediocre right-hander today in Joe Ross, who has pitched to a 5.36 ERA this season.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Dodgers SP Walker Buehler (21)
Photo credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
