The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Four pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,100 on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $12,000, HOU vs. TEX
- Yu Darvish (R) $10,400, CHC vs. CIN
- Sonny Gray (R) $10,100, CIN @ CHC
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $10,100, MIL vs. SD
Verlander continues to dominate in his age 36 season. He’s pitched to 2.58 ERA and 3.33 FIP while striking out an average of 12.01 batters per nine innings. He’s been particularly dominant from a fantasy perspective over his past 10 outings, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.21 on FanDuel.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is excellent. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 196 feet, which represents a decrease of -25 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
He takes the mound today in an excellent matchup vs. the Texas Rangers. Their projected lineup has struggled against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .270 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate. They’re currently implied for just 2.8 runs, which is the lowest mark on the slate. Verlander is also a massive -345 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.73 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35).
He also owns significant strikeout upside, with his K Prediction of 9.0 ranking tied for first among today’s starters.
Overall, there’s nothing not to like with Verlander on today’s slate.
Darvish is an interesting pivot off Verlander in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). His Vegas data isn’t quite as strong as Verlander’s — he owns a 3.4 opponent implied team total and -151 moneyline odds — but it’s still impressive.
Still, where Darvish really stands out is with his strikeout ability. He’s posted a K/9 of 11.24 this season, and he has an excellent matchup vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Their projected lineup has struck out in 29.6% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is one of the worst splits-adjusted marks on the slate. Darvish’s K Prediction of 7.6 ranks fourth among today’s starters, but he has upside for more.
Gray is opposing Darvish in Chicago, and he’s put together a nice bounce back campaign in 2019. He’s dropped his ERA from 4.90 last season to just 2.80 this year while averaging 10.45 strikeouts per nine innings.
He’s a solid underdog in this matchup, but he still has a few things working in his favor. For starters, the Cubs’ projected lineup has been pretty mediocre against right-handers over the past 12 months. They’ve posted a .278 wOBA and 28.0% strikeout rate, and their lineup is much less intimidating with Javier Baez on the IL.
Gray has also posted elite Statcast marks over his past two starts. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of just 170 feet, which represents a decrease of -34 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Gray should command minimal ownership, but he has some appeal for GPPs.
Woodruff is the easiest fade in this price range. He’s making his first start after missing nearly two months with an oblique strain, and the end of the minor league season means he hasn’t had the opportunity to make any rehab starts beforehand. He simply won’t pitch enough today to be fantasy relevant, so you can cross him off your list.
Values
Mitch Keller has had an interesting start to his MLB career. He’s been great at recording strikeouts, posting a 12.08 K/9, but he’s still struggled to an 8.29 ERA. His walks and HRs per nine are both reasonable, but he’s been victimized by a .477 BABIP and 53.5% strand rate. Overall, his 3.61 FIP is drastically better than his traditional ERA, so he’s a candidate for positive regression moving forward.
His Statcast data from his past two starts also paints an optimistic picture. He’s posted a 72% ground ball rate, resulting in an average distance of just 183 feet.
He’s in a wonderful spot today vs. the Seattle Mariners. Their projected lineup has been dreadful against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .253 wOBA and 37.4% strikeout rate. Keller’s Vegas data doesn’t jump off the page — 4.1 opponent implied team total, -122 moneyline odds — but he has immense upside in this matchup. He’s significantly underpriced at $5,800 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Martin Perez is an intriguing value option on DraftKings if you’re looking to spend down at SP2. He’s priced at just $5,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.
He has a strong matchup vs. the Chicago White Sox, whose projected lineup has posted a 29.7% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months. Perez is far from a strikeout pitcher — he owns a K/9 of just 7.37 this season — but he has more upside than usual.
Pitching for the Twins also has its benefits. They’re currently implied for 6.3 runs, giving Perez -202 moneyline odds. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically been solid investments, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.67 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Blake Snell: He’s making his return to the Rays rotation today, albeit in a brutal matchup vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’ll likely be limited in some capacity, but the idea of rostering last year’s AL Cy Young winner at just $7,100 on FanDuel is slightly tempting.
Nate Eovaldi: He has an excellent matchup vs. the San Francisco Giants, who rank just 28th in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season. He owns solid marks in opponent implied team total (4.1 runs), moneyline odds (-199), and K Prediction (6.5).
Gio Gonzalez: He’s expected to pitch the bulk of the innings for the Brewers after Woodruff ultimately exits, which could make him a sneaky target for GPPs. He’ll be facing a Padres lineup that has posted a .293 wOBA and 29.3% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
- 1. Ronald Acuna (R)
- 2. Ozzie Albies (S)
- 3. Freddie Freeman (L)
- 4. Josh Donaldson (R)
- 5. Nick Markakis (L)
Total Salary: $24,600
The Braves could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate. They’re currently implied for 5.6 runs, which is merely the seventh-highest mark on DraftKings. Six teams own an implied team total of at least 6.0 runs, headlined by the New York Mets mark of 7.4.
Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Braves left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13), first baseman Freddie Freeman (5).
That said, the Braves definitely have upside vs. Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez. He’s pitched to a 5.44 FIP this season, and he’s allowed opposing batters to average 2.08 HRs per nine innings.
Acuna stands out as one of the best hitting options on the entire slate. He leads all batters with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and batters with a comparable number of Pro Trends have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.21. He needs just one HR and four steals to join the exclusive 40/40 club, so expect him to be slightly more aggressive in the batter’s box and on the base paths.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Mitch Garver (R)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $13,100
The Twins implied team total of 6.5 ranks second on the slate, and they’re an elite value on FanDuel. Their top stack will set you back just $13,100, and their Team Value Rating of 98 ranks first on the slate.
Garver in particular stands out as an elite value. He’s priced at just $3,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s swung the bat well over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 244 feet and hard hit rate of 54%, and he’ll be on the positive side of his splits vs. White Sox left-hander Ross Detwiler. Rostering a catcher is not required on FanDuel, but Garver is someone who should definitely be on your radar.
Other Batters
The Mets will likely garner a lot of attention on today’s slate, and Jeff McNeil stands out as one of their best options on FanDuel. He’s expected to bat first at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’ll be on the positive side of his splits against Rockies right-hander Tim Melville, who has pitched to a 6.48 FIP this season, and McNeil also enters today’s contest in solid recent form. He’s exceeded his 12-month averages in distance, exit velocity, and hard hit rate over the past 15 days.
If you’re looking for a value option to round out your lineup on DraftKings, consider Franmil Reyes. He’s priced at just $3,500, but he has significantly more upside than the typical $3,500 player. He’s posted a .266 ISO against right-handers this season, and opposing pitcher Zac Reininger has allowed 3.38 HRs per nine innings through his first 24.0 innings this season.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Pirates SP Mitch Keller (23)
Photo Credit: Cody Glenn-USA TODAY Sports
