The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers on today’s slate own a salary of at least $10,800 on DraftKings:
- Walker Buehler (R) $11,700, LAD @ SF
- James Paxton (L) $11,200, NYY @ TEX
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,800, MIN @ KC
Buehler takes the mound in an elite spot vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has been dreadful against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .244 wOBA and 27.1% strikeout rate, and they’re currently implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs. Buehler also leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 9.0, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.79 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Buehler gets the added benefit of facing the Giants in San Francisco. It results in a Park Factor of 95, which is the top mark on the slate.
His Statcast data from his past two starts is also outstanding. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 196 feet and hard hit rate of 28%, both of which represent massive decreases when compared to his 12 month averages.
Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Walker Buehler (21), Photo Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
That said, there is one massive concern with Buehler. This is his final start of the regular season, and there’s a chance that the Dodgers will tap him to start Game 1 of the NLDS vs. the winner of the Wild Card game. With that in mind, there’s a chance that they give him an abbreviated start today. He’s thrown six innings or less in four of his past five starts, and he hasn’t thrown more than 98 pitches in each of his past seven outings.
He still makes sense for cash games, but it’s going to be tough for him to hit his ceiling given that kind of workload.
Paxton has struggled at times in his first season in New York, but he’s turned things around recently. He’s pitched to an average Plus/Minus of +3.24 over his past 10 starts on DraftKings, and he’s allowed just one earned run over his past 24.2 innings.
He has an appealing matchup vs. the Texas Rangers, who rank just 25th in wRC+ vs. southpaws over the second half of the season. Their projected lineup also boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Paxton leads all of today’s pitchers with a K/9 of 11.19 over the same time frame. He absolutely dominated the Rangers earlier this month, recording 12 strikeouts while allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings.
Like Buehler, Paxton could be on a limited pitch count in this outing, but he appears to have more upside.
Berrios is the odd man out in the stud tier. His Vegas data isn’t as good as Buehler’s — he owns a 3.9 opponent implied team total vs. the Kansas City Royals — and he doesn’t have the same strikeout prowess as Paxton. He will almost certainly start Game 1 of the ALDS for the Twins as well, so he faces the same questions about his workload. He’s an easy fade.
Values
Vince Velasquez has had an up-and-down season for the Philadelphia Phillies. He’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA and 5.17 FIP, but he’s also posted a 10.09 K/9.
His strikeout ability makes him a useful fantasy option in the right matchups, and the Miami Marlins definitely qualify. They’ve been dreadful against right-handers this season, ranking just 29th in wRC+ and eighth in strikeout rate. As a result, Velasquez owns a 3.8 opponent implied team total and 7.8 K Prediction, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.62.
He’s a particularly strong option on DraftKings, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Marcus Stroman stands out as one of the best values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%. His matchup vs. the Atlanta Braves is tough on paper — they rank ninth in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season — but he’s not expected to face the Braves top lineup.
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Marcus Stroman (7).
Ronald Acuna has already been shut down for the rest of the regular season, and Freddie Freeman might not play the entire game after missing the past week with an elbow injury. Overall, the Braves are implied for just 3.8 runs, which is tied for the fourth-lowest mark on the slate.
Fastballs
Dakota Hudson: He’s the best ground ball pitcher in baseball, which helps him overcome a pretty pedestrian strikeout rate. His opponent implied team total of 3.4 runs is tied with Buehler’s for the top mark on the slate, and he’s also a strong -231 favorite.
Jose Urquidy: He’s taking on an Angels’ lineup that is pretty pedestrian without Mike Trout. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .304 wOBA and 26.2% strikeout rate vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, and Urquidy has pitched to a 3.79 FIP and 9.77 K/9 over 35.0 MLB innings this season.
Nathan Eovaldi: He’s priced at just $4,100 on DraftKings, which is ridiculously cheap considering his matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles. He also threw 100 pitches in his last start, so he has more upside than a typical pitcher in this price range.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
- 1. Mitch Garver (R)
- 2. Jorge Polanco (S)
- 3. Nelson Cruz (R)
- 4. Eddie Rosario (L)
- 5. Miguel Sano (R)
Total Salary: $25,300
It seems like a good day to pay up on offense, and the Twins are in one of the best spots. Their implied team total of 6.2 runs ranks fourth on the slate.
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco (11)
They’re taking on Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund, who has been roughed up over 18.0 MLB innings this season. He’s pitched to a 7.50 ERA while averaging a paltry 1.0 strikeouts per nine innings. One! That almost seems impossible in today’s MLB. The Twins have demolished left-handed pitching, ranking second in wRC+ and first in ISO, so they have huge upside in this matchup.
Cruz in particular is someone who has had a lot of success vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. He’s posted a .487 wOBA and .457 ISO, which makes him a prime candidate to launch a ball into the seats. His Statcast data from the past 15 days is also excellent: 242-foot distance, 98 mile per hour exit velocity, 60% hard hit rate.
Coors Field is also available today. The Brewers lead the slate with an implied team total of 7.6 runs, but the top Coors Field stack on FanDuel actually belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 1. Trevor Story (R)
- 2. Ryan McMahon (L)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Charlie Blackmon (L)
Total Salary: $17,200
The Rockies are so much more expensive than any other team that it could actually make them a contrarian target. Their implied team total of 6.0 runs also ranks just fifth on the slate.
That said, they definitely have upside vs. Brewers right-hander Zack Davies. He’s pitched to a 3.61 ERA this season, but his 5.20 xFIP suggests he’s been significantly lucky. He typically allows a lot of balls to be put in play — he owns a K/9 of just 5.82 — which is always a recipe for disaster when pitching at Coors.
Story has taken over the leadoff spot in the Rockies lineup, which should theoretically increase his fantasy value. He’s also made excellent contact recently, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +24 feet and hard hit differential of +9 percentage points.
Other Batters
The Brewers should command the highest ownership on today’s slate, and Ryan Braun stands out as one of their best options on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $3,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s crushed the ball over his past 15 games. He’s posted a distance differential of +38 feet and hard hit differential of +15 percentage points, and batters with comparable marks at Coors have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.61 on FanDuel.
Paul Goldschmidt has been priced down to just $3,800 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. His 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most among batters on DraftKings, and he’s in a decent spot against Cubs right-hander Alec Mills. The Cardinals are currently implied for 5.2 runs, and Mills has pitched to a 4.32 FIP this season.
Joe Wendle is another excellent source of value on DraftKings at just $3,300. He’s expected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he’ll be on the positive side of his batting splits vs. Blue Jays right-hander T.J. Zeuch. The Rays are currently implied for 5.9 runs, and leadoff batters with comparable implied team totals and salaries have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.26 on DraftKings.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Rockies SS Trevor Story (27)
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
