Friday features a four-game MLB playoff slate starting at 2:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get right to it.
Pitchers
Studs
All eight playoff teams are in action today, so there are a lot of pitching options from which to choose. Three pitchers own a salary of at least $9,300 on FanDuel:
- Justin Verlander (R) $10,700, HOU vs. TB
- Stephen Strasburg (R) $9,600, WSH @ LAD
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $9,300, LAD vs. WSH
Verlander headlines the slate, and he put together another dominant regular season in 2019. He pitched to a 2.58 ERA — which ranked fourth among qualified starters — while averaging 12.11 strikeouts per nine innings. Some of his advanced metrics suggest he was a bit lucky, particularly his .218 batting average on balls in play, but it was still a tremendous season.
He takes the mound in a solid spot vs. the Tampa Bay Rays. They were decent against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking eighth in wRC+, but Verlander is not an ordinary right-hander. He leads all pitchers in opponent-implied team total (3.0 runs), moneyline odds (-218), and K Prediction (9.6), and pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.48 on FanDuel (per the Trends tool).
Verlander also enters this contest in excellent Statcast form. He’s limited opposing batters to an average distance of 208 feet, exit velocity of 90 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 34%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Strasburg will get the ball for the Nationals in Game 2 of their series vs. the Dodgers after coming out of the bullpen in the Wild Card game. He was brilliant in that contest, picking up the win while recording four strikeouts over three innings.
The Nationals need a big performance from him after dropping Game 1 of this series. Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done vs. the Dodgers. They ranked second in wRC+ vs. right-handers during the regular season, and they’re currently implied for 4.2 runs. That’s much higher than usual for Strasburg: He only owned an opponent implied team total above 4.0 runs in only 11 starts this season. Unsurprisingly, he struggled in those outings, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.57 and a Consistency Rating of 36.4%.
He’s best used as a pivot off Verlander in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Kershaw is opposing Strasburg in Los Angeles, which is where he’s historically been at his best, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.24 when pitching at Dodger Stadium, and while he’s definitely seen some decline from his peak, he still put up a 2.89 ERA at home in 2019.
That said, it’s tough to fully buy into him today. His opponent-implied team total of 3.4 runs ranks second on the slate, but that undersells just how good the Nationals are against left-handed pitchers. Their projected lineup has posted a .347 wOBA against southpaws over the past 12 months, and they’ve struck out in just 21.5% of at bats. That’s a brutal combination for fantasy.
Of course, there’s also the fact that Kershaw has not been the same dominant pitcher throughout his career during the postseason. His career regular season ERA sits a 2.44, but it has been gotten progressively worse in each round of the playoffs:
- Divisional Series: 3.72 ERA
- Championship Series: 4.61 ERA
- World Series: 5.40 ERA
That narrative could result in reduced ownership — which is definitely appealing for GPPs — but it’s hard to see a ton of upside in this matchup.
Values
Virtually every pitcher is in play on a small slate, but some stand out as better options than others.
Let’s start with Jack Flaherty. He’s been nothing short of the best pitcher in baseball over the second half of the regular season, pitching to a 0.91 ERA, 2.22 FIP, and 11.23 K/9. The only reason he didn’t pitch in Game 1 of their series vs. the Braves is because they needed him to pitch on Sunday to lock up the NL Central. Naturally, he took care of business, limiting the Cubs to just two hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings.
His matchup vs. the Braves isn’t easy, but it is one of the best among today’s starters. Their projected lineup has posted a .323 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the second-lowest splits-adjusted mark of the day.
Where Flaherty really stands out is with his combination of strikeout upside and recent Statcast data. He currently owns a K Prediction of 8.0, and he’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -35 feet. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.84 on DraftKings.
He’s also an elite value on DraftKings, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He can be used as an SP1 or an SP2.
Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton (65)
James Paxton left his last start after just one inning due to a glute injury, but it ended up being purely precautionary. He struggled at times during his first season in New York, but he ended this season with a bang. He pitched to a 1.05 ERA, 2.20 FIP, and 10.52 K/9 over 25.2 September innings.
He’ll look to build upon that success today vs. the Minnesota Twins. They may be the most intimidating matchup in baseball for left-handed pitchers — they ranked second in wRC+ and first in ISO — but he did throw three scoreless innings in his only meeting vs. the Twins this season. His opponent-implied team total of 3.6 runs is the third-lowest mark on the slate, but his $6,900 salary makes him the second-cheapest starter on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Mike Foltynewicz: He was absolutely abysmal during the first half of the season, pitching to a 6.37 ERA, but he managed to right the ship following the All-Star break. The Cardinals own the least imposing offense among the remaining playoff teams, with their projected lineup posting a .311 wOBA vs. right-handers over the past 12 months.
Tyler Glasnow: In terms of pure talent, he ranks among the best starters in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s been limited to 4.1 innings or fewer in every start since coming off the IL on 9/8. That makes him tough to roster vs. the Astros.
Jose Berrios: He has arguably the worst matchup on the slate vs. the Yankees, who lead all teams with an implied team total of 5.0. I just wanted to include him in the writeup so he wouldn’t feel left out.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 1. Dexter Fowler (S)
- 2. Kolten Wong (L)
- 3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 5. Yadier Molina (R)
- 6. Matt Carpenter (L)
Total Salary: $19,400
Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports.
The Cardinals also checked in as the top stack on Thursday’s slate, and they responded with seven runs vs. Dallas Keuchel. Their implied team total of 4.5 runs ranks third on the slate, which makes their top stack a bargain at just $19,400. Their Team Value Rating is tied with the Yankees for the top mark on DraftKings, which makes them the perfect choice if you’re paying up at both pitcher spots.
Foltynewicz has been much better over the second-half of the season, but he’s still probably the least imposing pitcher on the slate. He also hasn’t been nearly as good as his traditional metrics indicates. He’s gotten lucky in terms of his batting average on balls in play (.250) and strand rate (84.3%), and his 4.19 xFIP is significantly higher than his ERA over that time frame.
Fowler continues to provide excellent value at the top of the Cardinals’ lineup. He’s priced at just $3,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s also posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +10 feet.
The Cardinals also own the top four-man FanDuel stack, so lets focus on the Yankees instead:
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 8. Giovanny Urshella (R)
Total Salary: $15,100
The Yankees figure to be the most popular team on target on the slate given their implied team total. That said, stacking them in the above 1-2-3-8 manner should increase your chances of having a unique lineup. Urshella in particular should command moderate ownership at best, and his $2,800 salary also makes the stack more affordable.
Judge is someone who deserves heavy consideration even if you aren’t stacking the Yankees. He’s absolutely smoked the ball over the past 15 days, posting an average distance of 292 feet, exit velocity of 103 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 69%. All three represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Other Batters
Joc Pederson didn’t draw the start on Thursday vs. Patrick Corbin, but he should be back in the lineup tonight vs. Strasburg. While that isn’t a particularly appealing matchup, Pederson has smashed right-handed pitching all season. He’s posted a 137 wRC+, and all 36 of his HRs have come against right-handers. He’s also projected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup, which increases his appeal.
Jose Altuve owns 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, which is tied with Judge for the most on the slate. That many Pro Trends has historically led to good things: Batters with a comparable number have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.13. Altuve is also one of the better pure values on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
Not many people are going to target the Rays vs. Verlander, and low ownership plays are always valuable on small slates. Ji-Man Choi is one batter in particular that stands out. He’s fared well against right-handers over the past 12 months, posting a .374 wOBA and .222 ISO, and he owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +42 feet.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Cardinals SP Jack Flaherty (22)
Photo credit: Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports
