It’s a full slate Friday night, with the 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The favorite on the Bales Model tonight is Max Scherzer.
I still feel like Scherzer is having a season in the shadows this season, with a lot of the attention flowing to the likes of Jacob deGrom and Corbin Burnes in the National League.
Scherzer is still fifth in strikeouts and sixth in WHIP in MLB. His one downside this season has been giving up home runs. He has only allowed 43 hits on the season, and 11 of them have left the yard.
Tonight, he gets the Phillies, who are the third most likely team to strikeout in MLB. That is only going to help the floor for Scherzer tonight and is a main reason as to why he is projected to score five points more than any pitcher on FanDuel, albeit at the highest price.
I am very comfortable with using Scherzer tonight.
Blake Snell continues to get love and is the highest-rated pitcher on FanDuel.
I cannot be the only one, but I would wait until I see it from Snell. He continues to have elite strikeout stuff but has been hit hard this year and never seems to last deep into ball games.
His WHIP (1.60) is almost double that of Scherzer’s (0.82) and has gone at least 5 1/3 innings in two of his 11 starts.
Snell faces the Mets, who are a great lineup to target with starting pitchers at the moment due to their numerous injuries. The problem is that even in great matchups, Snell has not always delivered. He could not get out of the first inning against the Pirates and in one of two meetings with the Rockies only lasted four innings.
I just do not trust Snell right now.
There are a few high-priced options that I would just avoid tonight, specifically looking at Julio Urias, Ian Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu. None of them are in good enough spots to justify that price.
One guy in that tier that I think could be worthy of a look is Freddy Peralta.
Peralta has been so consistent this season. He has allowed 28 hits in 56 2/3 innings and has had seven, eight, or 10 strikeouts in every start that he has made this season.
That consistent provides daily fantasy players with a decent view as to what Peralta’s floor should be.
He faces a floundering Diamondbacks team that actually has a league-average offense. Arizona’s problem has been its pitching, which should give Peralta a slightly higher chance at recording a win tonight.
If you want to pay down, the answer is probably Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel is the same pitch-to-contact guy that we have known and loved for years. In 2021, he has 30 strikeouts in 59 2/3 innings.
Tonight, he faces a Tigers lineup that is simply one of the worst in MLB. Detroit strikes out the most in the majors and averages the second-fewest runs per game at 3.66.
This should help Keuchel enjoy some success tonight. While I would not project him to set the world on fire with strikeouts, I do think that the Tigers can help him a bit in that category.
I could see Keuchel going like six innings, giving up one run, with four our five strikeouts against the Tigers, a line that would provide good value at his price point. He has a really good chance at getting a win as compared to a lot of pitchers in that range.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Oakland Athletics:
- 2. Matt Olson (L)
- 3. Jed Lowrie (S)
- 1. Mark Canha (R)
- 5. Sean Murphy (R)
This group is projected for 50.5 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,700. Naturally, the Athletics are the road team in Coors Field. The Athletics have an implied run total of 5.9 runs, which is the highest on the slate. They are facing Jon Gray, who has pitched better at home than on the road. It is a weird trend that almost the entire Rockies team is following.
Other Hitters
The Chicago Cubs could be a popular non-Coors stack against left-hander Scott Kazmir. The Bales Model has both Joc Pederson and Anthony Rizzo as large bargains for tonight. Kazmir is almost a psuedo-opener for the San Francisco Giants and has given up two home runs in five innings this season. Both home runs were hit by the left-handed-hitting Max Muncy.
Cesar Hernandez is consistently too cheap. At $2,600 on FanDuel, we know he is going to be the Indians’ leadoff hitter and has shown some pop this season with eight home runs. Two of those home runs came in one game on Monday against the White Sox. The Indians head in to Camden Yards, which is a great ballpark for hitters.
If Tommy Pham is able to play, I think he could be worth looking at. He just snapped a seven-game hitting streak with an 0-for-2 because of an early exit on Wednesday. Pham had two home runs within the seven game hitting streak. The Padres in general could be worth targeting, as I just do not see Joey Luchessi as good.
Another bargain is Whit Merrifield. He is the favorite on the Bales Model for FanDuel, outside of Coors hitters. Merrifield cooled off in May from a strong start in April. He currently has a four game hitting streak and multiple hits in three of his past six games. Matt Shoemaker is giving up more than a hit an inning this season and just yielded five runs in 4 1/3 innings to this Kansas City team on Sunday.
Pictured above: Blake Snell
Credit: Denis Poroy/Getty Images
