The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 14-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Three pitchers own a salary of at least $10,100 on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R) $12,600, WAS vs. MIA
- Carlos Carrasco (R) $11,200, CLE vs. BAL
- Charlie Morton (R) $10,100, HOU @ OAK
Scherzer is the priciest option on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is in a wonderful spot vs. the Miami Marlins. He leads all pitchers with an opponent implied team total of 2.5 runs and moneyline odds of -375, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.45 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). Those marks are extremely rare, with only five other pitchers matching that trend in 2018. The Marlins projected lineup has been abysmal against right-handers over the past 12 months, owning a wOBA of just .262.
That said, the Marlins have actually fared quite well against Scherzer recently. He was able to rack up 41.0 DraftKings points in his most recent outing against them, but he scored just 11.5 and 12.4 in his two other meetings this season. Still, his $12,600 salary might be too good to pass up: He’s been priced below $13,000 in only seven of 16 starts vs. the Marlins since 2015. The bigger concern might be the weather conditions, which currently call for a 31% chance of precipitation.
As good as Scherzer’s matchup is, Carrasco’s matchup against the Baltimore Orioles might be even better. Their projected lineup has been equally as bad against right-handed pitchers, struggling to a .257 wOBA over the past 12 months, and they combine that with a ridiculously-high strikeout rate of 29.0%. His opponent implied team total of 3.0 runs and moneyline odds of -365 trail only Scherzer’s marks on today’s slate, and his K Prediction of 8.1 is slightly higher. He’ll likely have lower ownership than Scherzer – especially considering the 47% chance of precipitation in his game – which makes him an ideal target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Morton rounds out the stud tier, but it’s tough to get behind him given that his matchup vs. the Oakland A’s is so much tougher than the other studs. Their projected lineup has managed a wOBA of .341 against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the second-highest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. As a result, Morton owns significantly lower marks in opponent implied team total (3.6 runs), moneyline odds (-147), and K Prediction (6.6).
Values
Robbie Ray has been a major disappointment in 2018, posting a 4.83 ERA through his first 15 starts. That said, there are some reasons to believe he can improve on those numbers moving forward. He’s suffered from some tough luck on balls in play, allowing a BABIP of .331 and a HR/FB rate of 17.8%. He remains one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, owning a K/9 of 11.91 this season, so he could be a big time fantasy asset if he sees some progression in his batted-ball numbers.
That could start today vs. the San Diego Padres. Their projected lineup has posted a .293 wOBA and 29.0% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months, giving Ray a strong opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs and an elite K Prediction of 9.8. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.34 on DraftKings. Ray has also been priced down to just $7,800 on DraftKings, which represents a decrease of $1,100 since the start of the season. This seems like a prime buy-low opportunity.
Lance Lynn has been fantastic in his first three appearances for the Yankees, pitching to a 0.54 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 11.88 K/9. His recent Statcast data is also impressive, limiting his past two opponents to an average distance of 186 feet, exit velocity of 85 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of just 15%. All three of those numbers represent significant decreases compared to his 12-month averages. He remains affordable at just $7,900 for his matchup vs. the Toronto Blue Jays, who have an implied team total of just 3.9 runs. Unfortunately, this is another game where you’ll have to monitor the weather conditions: There’s currently a 35% chance of precipitation at game time.
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Fastballs
Jack Flaherty: He’s been priced up aggressively on both DraftKings and FanDuel but has been terrific over his past two starts. He owns a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet and has a K Prediction of 7.8 today vs. the Milwaukee Brewers.
Freddy Peralta: He’s opposing Flaherty and the Cardinals, which should give him minimal ownership despite his outstanding strikeout potential. He’s posted a K/9 of 12.02 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 8.6 trails only Ray’s among today’s starters.
Kyle Gibson: He’s another pitcher in good recent form, owning a distance differential of -19 feet over his past two starts, and he has a strong matchup vs. the Detroit Tigers. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .278 wOBA over the past 12 months, resulting in an implied team total of just 3.7 runs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Cleveland Indians:
- 1. Francisco Lindor (S)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Yandy Diaz (R)
- 5. Yonder Alonso (L)
- 7. Jason Kipnis (L)
Total Salary: $23,900
The Indians lead all teams with an implied team total of 6.1 runs, while their Team Value Rating of 75 on DraftKings ranks second. They’ll likely be one of the most popular targets, but avoiding projected No. 3 hitter Jose Ramirez could increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup. The Indians are taking on Orioles right-hander David Hess, who has posted a HR/9 mark of 2.17 over the past 12 months. They should be able to take advantage of his proclivity for the long ball, evidenced by the fourth-highest ISO against right-handers in 2018.
Diaz is expected to occupy the cleanup spot for the Indians and has posted a distance differential of +47 feet over the past 15 days. He plays the same position as Ramirez, which could result in lower ownership than expected for the cleanup hitter in a potent offense.
The top FanDuel stack also belongs to the Indians, so let’s focus on the Minnesota Twins instead:
- 1. Joe Mauer (L)
- 2. Logan Forsythe (R)
- 4. Miguel Sano (R)
- 5. Tyler Austin (R)
Total Salary: $9,900
The Twins’ implied team total of 4.9 runs is significantly lower than the Indians’ mark, but it’s possible that they represent a better value on FanDuel. They have a Team Value Rating of 95, and each of the stacked batters has a Bargain Rating of at least 82%. On a slate with Scherzer and Carrasco in elite spots, that could be really important.
They’re taking on Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, and he’s allowed a dreadful average distance of 242 feet over his past two starts. Austin, who was acquired from the Yankees at the trade deadline, has historically crushed left-handers, posting a .382 wOBA and .299 ISO over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts has been arguably the best hitter in baseball this season, leading all batters with a .459 wOBA and 193 wRC+. He’s been particularly effective recently from a Statcast perspective, averaging a 245-foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity, and 51% hard-hit rate. The Red Sox’s implied team total of 5.5 runs trails only the Indians’ mark, and his $5,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Nicky Delmonico is priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings and is projected to occupy the leadoff spot for the Chicago White Sox. He’s also crushed the baseball recently, posting a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +33 feet, exit velocity differential of +5 mph, and hard-hit differential of +19 percentage points.
Kole Calhoun continued his massive hot streak on Thursday, collecting three hits, including a home run. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.75 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his Statcast numbers from that time period are impressive: 248-foot distance, 96 mph exit velocity, 54% hard-hit rate. He remains affordable at just $4,200 on DraftKings, and the Angels are implied for 5.2 runs against Rangers right-hander Drew Hutchison.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Carlos Carrasco
Photo credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
