Friday features a small six-game main slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The small slate is going to make for some interesting decisions to make at starting pitcher. We are also seeing some big movements in starters’ salaries with only a one game sample size.
My favorite play is third on the Bales Model for FanDuel and second for DraftKings in Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers gets a rematch of his first start with the Oakland Athletics. And frankly, the A’s lineup is full of ineptitude to begin this season.
On Saturday against these Athletics, McCullers went five innings giving up one run with seven strikeouts and picked up a win. I do like that he threw 95 pitches and is fully stretched out, but will be curious to see if he can throw fewer pitches per at-bat tonight.
I wrote in Tuesday’s article that I would not expect the Athletics to be this bad the whole season, which I would still maintain today. It may just continue to be a good time to oppose them early on in the season.
McCullers hits for six ProTrends, the Houston Astros are -161 favorites, and the Athletics are tied for the second lowest implied run total at 3.8 runs on the slate.
Joe Musgrove is the highest-rated pitcher on the Bales Model for DraftKings. With where his salary is at, I do not think I would play him on FanDuel.
Musgrove gets the large benefit of playing for the San Diego Padres, which is going to increase his chances of securing a win with their offense.
In his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he went six innings, giving up no runs, with eight strikeouts. The most impressive part is that it was done on 78 pitches.
Last year Musgrove had a 12.9 K/9, which was significantly up from his 8.3 K/9 in 2019. If that step up remains the same, he becomes a much more interesting daily fantasy pitcher.
The Texas Rangers are tied with the Athletics at an implied 3.8 runs tonight. They are projected to have seven left-handed hitters (two switch-hitters) off of Musgrove. He has been slightly worse against left-handed hitters in his career, which is not uncommon for a right-handed pitcher, but it is not too disastrous.
I would avoid him on FanDuel because they have just seemed to overreact to a lot of these starters’ first games and drastically changed pricing. He is up $1,100 from his last start.
Speaking of large pricing changes on FanDuel, Zach Plesac is $1,600 cheaper than his first start.
I’m really not even sure what they saw in his first start to suggest that, other than a low strikeout total.
In his first start against the Detroit Tigers, who he faces again tonight, he went six innings giving up two earned runs on four strikeouts. Last year, he had 57 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.
The Tigers are already playing better than many thought that they would, with many thanks to Akil Baddoo. The Cleveland Indians are still -181 favorites for this game – maybe their offense can do something against Julio Teheran.
Current projections do have the wind blowing straight out at 13 MPH, so that may be something to monitor going into game time in Cleveland.
Plesac is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and the fourth most expensive on FanDuel.
I’ll touch quickly on the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves game. It definitely is projecting as low scoring. Zach Wheeler is far too expensive on FanDuel, especially being an underdog. Charlie Morton is the highest-rated FanDuel pitcher from the Bales Model. He comes at a $1,200 discount off of his first start.
Morton did not pitch amazing in his first start against these Phillies (lots of early season rematches), but it could be an interesting “buy low” opportunity for him tonight.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The best stack of the night belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- 1. Jake Cronenworth (L)
- 3. Manny Machado (R)
- 5. Wil Myers (R)
- 2. Tommy Pham (R)
This group of four is projected for 51.3 FanDuel points on a $13,400 salary. This makes sense, as they are facing one of the worse pitchers on the slate and are tied for the highest implied run total. They have only 27 runs in seven games as an offense.
The second best stack belongs to the Houston Astros:
- 1. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Alex Bregman (R)
- 2. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Yordan Alvarez (L)
This group is projected for 48.8 FanDuel points on a $15,700 salary. Clearly, a lot more expensive than the Padres cohort. There are some more “name brand” names on this list than the Padres contributing to that. As an offense though, the Astros have 51 runs in seven games. They face a slightly tougher starter in Sean Manaea. Altuve and Brantley have actually struggled off of him lifetime, while Bregman is 8-for-26 with three home runs.
Other Hitters
The top-rated hitter on the Bales Model is Ben Gamel. This is not shocking to me, I actually thought the Indians would have the second-best stack. He is ridiculously cheap as a projected lead-off hitter facing Julio Teheran. Cesar Hernandez and Jose Ramirez are in the top-10 of the ratings as well. It probably just comes down to whether or not you can trust this Indians offense – which is a hard pill to swallow.
Travis d’Arnaud is a 98% Bargain Rating on the Bales Model. Wheeler can be a tough matchup for many, but he is 2-for-4 lifetime. The Bales Model also thinks Dansby Swanson is too cheap, but he is a scary 1-for-19 lifetime against Wheeler.
I have not hit on the Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays game yet. This one is projected for some runs and could have some contrarian stacks to be found. In the Lineup Optimizer, Bo Bichette is finding his way into a lot of lineups. Bichette is a great hitter overall, but just mashes left-handed pitching to the tune of .352/.389/.602 lifetime. The Angels will be starting Andrew Heaney tonight, a left-handed pitcher.
