The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday’s main slate features 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Carlos Rodon ($9,800) San Francisco Giants (-153) at Cleveland Guardians
Projections are razor close between the top pitchers on today’s slate, with Rodon ranking second in median projection behind only Freddy Peralta ($10,000). Rodon is my preferred option if spending up, though. Of the four pitchers projected for over 18 points, Rodon stands out in a number of key metrics.
The Guardians have the lowest implied Vegas total of the quartet of pitchers at the top and are 0.1 runs away from the lowest mark on the slate. That’s usually a good starting point, assuming betting markets are reasonably efficient. Next, Rodon has the highest strikeout rate on the slate. (Considering all of 2021 and his first start this year.) His 35% mark will probably regress a bit. However, his slate-leading swinging strike rate is impressive as well.
Additionally, Rodon is pitching in the most pitcher-friendly park among the top options today, according to our Park Factor. While his Weather Rating is technically the worst of the group, it’s only eight points off the lead. That’s an insignificant difference in the grand scheme of things.
The weather is the biggest concern here, though. Rain is expected in Cleveland, but it’s expected to be light enough that they continue to play.
If this one looks dicey, Peralta is my preferred pivot.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mackenzie Gore ($5,000) San Diego Padres (-117) vs. Atlanta Braves
Former No. 3 overall pick Gore will be making his MLB debut tonight against the Atlanta Braves. The left-hander was the No. 3 overall pick in 2017 and was in spring training with the big league club. He excelled in the spring, striking out 16 in 12 innings.
While it isn’t the softest landing against the Braves, oddsmakers have enough faith in Gore and the Padres to make him a slight favorite. That’s mostly due to his stuff. He sits high 90s with his fastball and should still miss bats at the big league level.
He’s also fortunate to be making his first start at home. The spacious confined of Petco Park are a boost for pitchers. The Park Factor of 85 leads the slate. Regardless of any of that, though, a favored pitcher at only $5,000 is always a bargain.
Gore leads our projections in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Tarik Skubal ($8,400) Detroit Tigers (+111) at Kansas City Royals
At $8,400, Skubal is too expensive for what Vegas is telling us about his chances. The Tigers are slight underdogs, with the Royals implied for 4.6 runs. All of which should suppress ownership on the young left-hander, though. He’s projected to be one of the least-popular arms on the slate.
Skubal has solid advanced metrics that suggest he’s trending in the right direction though. His SIERA is more than half a run lower than his ERA to start. He’s also above average in both strikeout and swinging-strike rate. The Tigers defense looks to be improved this season, meaning we should see his ERA look more like his SIERA does.
The real appeal is the Royals’ struggles against left-handed pitching, though. While it’s early, they’re hitting just .158 against southpaws to start the year. Skubal is a sneaky pick to have a good game here and is worth a dart throw in GPPs.
Jordan Montgomery ($8,800) New York Yankees (-207) at Baltimore Orioles
Montgomery has the lowest ownership projection of the top pitchers on the slate in both FantasyLabs and THE BAT’s ownership projections. He’s also the cheapest of the four pitchers projected over 18 points and the heaviest favorite. Montgomery is a nice combination of value and low ownership, and he needs to be considered for GPPs.
While Montgomery doesn’t wow anyone with his strikeout rate of just under 25%, other metrics paint a better picture. His swinging-strike rate suggests he should rack up a few more Ks. Additionally, he limits hard contact at one of the best rates on the slate.
That’s important when pitching in a hitter-friendly park in Baltimore. The Orioles are implied for only four runs, so Vegas thinks Montgomery should do fine.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- Charlie Blackmon (1) ($3,900)
- Kris Bryant (2) ($4,400)
- Brendan Rogers (3) ($3,700)
- C.J. Cron (4) ($4,500)
- Ryan McMahon (5) ($3,900)
Just like yesterday, our Tournament Model prefers the top of the Rockies order for GPPs. The lineup looks a bit different, though, with Charlie Blackmon expected to hit first against right-handed Marcus Stroman of the Cubs. The Rockies scored only two runs yesterday (in an easier pitching matchup), which has led to reduced ownership projections on all of their bats.
Anytime we can build Coors field stacks while avoiding high ownership, it’s probably a good idea to do so. Particularly when salaries are reasonable as well. Every member of this stack has a Projected Plus/Minus score of at least positive one, suggesting they’re good values for your salary.
Besides the obvious Park Factor provided by Coors Field, this game also has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating on the slate.
With the Rockies implied for over five runs, it’s worth going back to the well again on Friday night.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT, when generated by Projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
This is another stack recycled from yesterday with some slight tweaks. Unlike the Rockies, the Dodgers didn’t disappoint yesterday, scoring nine runs. They have another good starting pitcher matchup in right-handed Vladamir Gutierrez ($5,900) of the Reds. Gutierrez has a SIERA over 5 since the start of last season while walking nearly 10% of the batters he’s faced.
The Reds bullpen was responsible for most of the Dodgers’ scoring yesterday though. “Opener” Luis Cessa allowed three runs, while the back end of the bullpen allowed the other six (after pseudo-starter Reiver Sanmartin pitched five scoreless innings.) That bullpen is likely to be overtaxed as well, meaning things could get out of hand in a hurry for Cincinnati
When optimizing for Plus/Minus (a great strategy for cash games) as we did here, we’re sacrificing a bit of Lineup Correlation in order to save salary.
Of course, that also means we’re getting a break on ownership since top-of-the-order stacks are going to be more popular. Bellinger stands out at just $2,800. Even hitting seventh, he leads THE BAT’s projections in Pts/Sal.
He’s scored at least 15 DraftKings points in three straight contests, so don’t expect the cheap prices on him to last much longer.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Mitch Garver C ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
There’s a lot to like about Garver tonight. He’s projected to bat third, which is generally somewhat hard to find in a catcher. (Though today, there’s seven backstops projected to hit in the first four lineup spots.) He’s also playing at home in Texas, where the forecast calls for 80 degree weather and winds blowing out. Those factors combine for a slate-best 79 Weather Rating for the Angels and Rangers hitters.
What really stands out is the pitching matchup though. Detmers of the Angels has the highest ERA and SIERA on the slate. He also induces ground balls at one of the lowest rates, while walking more than 11% of his opponents.
Detmers is left-handed as well, and Garver excels against southpaws. His ISO difference (the difference in a hitter’s isolated power against the hand of the pitcher they’re facing, compared to pitchers who throw the other way) is a massive positive .222.
While Garver is tied for the highest ownership projection among catchers, there’s a bevy of good options today. Our current projections don’t have any of them going much over 10%, so don’t shy away from Garver on that front either.
Alex Bregman 3B ($4,900 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel)Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzales)
All of the Astros’ right-handed bats are in play here against Gonzales. The Mariners pitcher has fairly extreme platoon splits, allowing righties a .358 wOBA over since 2021, more than 100 points higher than his mark against fellow lefties. Additionally, Gonzales is a pitcher we want to pick on in general. His ground ball rate is the worst on the slate, and his SIERA is nearly 5.0.
Bregman is my favorite of the bunch, though. He’s projected to bat third and leads the Astros lineup in points per game so far this season. He’s still cheaper than Jose Altuve ($5,400) as well as lefty Yordan Alvarez ($5,100), making him the best overall play on the Astros.
This game is rough from a weather and park standpoint, but Houston is still implied for a solid 4.5 runs on the road.
Bregman is the leading candidate to be responsible for the most of that.
Aaron Judge OF ($5,400 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (Jordan Lyles)
Judge is off to a solid start to the season, hitting .286 with an OPS of .855 and one home run through six games. However, those numbers obscure how well he’s been hitting the ball so far. His Statcast data points to some positive regression for the Yankees slugger.
Judge is clearly seeing the ball well, with both his hard-hit rate and his “barrel” rate being the highest in his career. While he’s gotten lucky in terms of BABIP (.350) to start the season, with the way he’s hit the ball, expect to see less of them in play very soon.
Tonight looks to be a good place for that to start. The wind is blowing out to left-center at Camden Yards, and he’s taking on a pitcher in Jordan Lyles who struggles to induce ground balls.
He leads all hitters in median projection.
