Friday’s slate offers a unique nine-game slate, starting at 7:10 p.m. ET on FanDuel.
Pitchers
There are three options priced over $9,000 for tonight:
- Yu Darvish (R), $11,200, vs. STL
- Jack Flaherty (R), $9,700, @ CHC
- Carlos Carrasco (R), $9,300, vs. MIL
Yu Darvish has become an elite pitching option this season, as is evidenced by tonight’s price. He has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in the MLB this season, with six consecutive wins and six consecutive quality starts. He has struck out at least seven in five of those six starts as well.
Darvish leads the slate with a K Prediction of 6.9. The Chicago Cubs are slight favorites in Vegas at -128.
With no game in Coors Field on the schedule, working Darvish into lineups should be do-able. He will be heavily owned in cash games, as the chalk play.
On the other side of tonight’s Windy City matchup is Jack Flaherty. Flaherty has gotten off to a strong start in 2020, as he has only made four starts on the season.
Flaherty has yet to top 90 pitches on the season, with 83 in his last start. The last two times out, he has only been able to complete five innings. The good news is that the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals play a doubleheader Saturday, so both Davish and Flaherty could be asked for some length.
I don’t love Flaherty tonight, but I can see using him in a GPP. The Cardinals are going to be underdogs in this game, but its probably a low-scoring affair. Flaherty could be a pivot on a short slate.
The Indians continue to have some of the best pitching in the league. They have given up the fewest runs in the league (even though they have played more games than the teams who have had extended breaks) and are only giving up 2.83 runs per game. The trend makes the Indians’ starter worth looking at every night.
Carlos Carrasco has been a bit hit-or-miss in 2020. He has four games at 28 FanDuel points or less, but three games at 40 or more with two above 50.
The Milwaukee Brewers have generally disappointed in 2020. Their offense is 27th in the league at 4.0 runs per game, while they also are 29th at 9.86 strikeouts per game. The Brewers’ implied run total is 3.7 for tonight.
Carrasco is second on the slate in K Prediction at 6.42.
I’d feel pretty good about locking Carrasco in my lineup tonight.
Values
Dane Dunning is a name some may not know about on the Chicago White Sox. He has made the leap from AA in 2018 to the bigs this year. This will be his third major league start.
The issue so far for Dunning has been length (4 1/3 and 5 inning starts), but his strikeout numbers are impressive and may allow him to hit for value anyway. The last time out was against the Kansas City Royals (same matchup tonight) and he went five innings of no-hit, one-walk, seven strikeout baseball.
Through 9 1/3 innings in the big leagues, Dunning has only allowed one home run.
Dunning was only allotted 79 pitches in that start, so he should be able to have 85-90 bullets tonight. At $7,700, there are multiple avenues for Dunning to hit for value.
For GPPs especially, Jesus Luzardo could be an interesting option at $8,100. Many will be scared away by the San Diego Padres’ league leading 5.69 runs per game, but the Oakland Athletics are actually favored at -143 in this game.
The Oakland Coliseum is so pitcher-friendly that the Padres have a 3.7 implied run total for tonight.
Looking at Luzardo’s splits, he has very strong home numbers. He has a 1.90 ERA at home, with one home run allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Hitters have a .605 OPS off of Luzardo at home, compared to a .986 OPS on the road.
Luzardo will be making this start on ten days rest, which does bring in an element of the unknown. I would not trust Luzardo in cash, but find him intriguing in a GPP.
Hitters
Notable Stacks
The highest projected scoring stack of the night is an expensive one in the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 3. Max Muncy (L)
- 2. Corey Seager (L)
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 4. Cody Bellinger (L)
This group of four Dodgers is projected for 51.6 FanDuel points in the Bales Model at a cost of $16,100. They are facing right-hander Antonio Senzatela, so their left-handedness definitely helps. The Dodgers have an implied run total of 5.6.
The second stack is much cheaper in the Cleveland Indians:
- 4. Carlos Santana (S)
- 1. Cesar Hernandez (S)
- 2. Jose Ramirez (S)
- 3. Francisco Lindor (S)
The Indians’ top of the order is projected for 46.2 FanDuel points in the Bales Model. They cost $12,800. The Indians face Corbin Burnes who is not necessarily a pushover. Cleveland’s offense has just started to hit their stride these last few games, so it is still possible to get these guys on the cheap. Taking some of these names could pair nicely with Carrasco as a team stack.
Other Hitters
Targeting White Sox hitters could work well with a team stack including Dunning. Yasmani Grandal and Tim Anderson are viewed as large bargains in the Bales Model. Brady Singer, the Royals’ starter, has been good to give up at least a few earned runs in every start, including three earned runs last time out against these White Sox. The White Sox rated as the third best stack of the night too.
The highest-rated hitter on the Bales Model tonight is Brandon Nimmo. Jake Arrieta has just not looked like the same pitcher this year, as he sports a 6.49 ERA for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets just scored nine runs against the New York Yankees on Thursday. Many of the Mets rate out well tonight against Arrieta, as Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis are in the top ten for the night as well.
