Saturday’s main slate features eight games starting at 7:10 pm ET. We will be using the Bales Model to highlight some of the top options to consider.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
Tyler Mahle (R)
Joe Musgrove (R)
Framber Valdez (L)
Julio Urias (L)
A top-three pitcher on Bales Model for tonight’s slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle. He is coming off back-to-back dominant performances, having struck out 14 in 12 2/3 innings while allowing only three earned runs. Overall this season, Mahle has 174 strikeouts in 148 1/3 innings which is 13th in MLB.
Today, Mahle will be on the mound against the Tigers, which can be seen as a luxury as they are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.8 runs). Mahle rates highly due to his strong consistency, high ceiling and having the highest K/9 on the slate (10.544). Another reason that Mahle rates highly tonight is because the Tigers rank fifth in baseball with 1,280 team strikeouts.
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Joe Musgrove from the San Diego Padres last start threw a three-hitter against the Los Angeles Angels. Unfortunately, with such a strong performance there is not much better he can do however we expect the Padres righty to be stellar again today. Musgrove is the highest rated pitcher on the Bales Model for DraftKings tonight as he takes on the Houston Astros. The Astros are another tough opponent for Musgrove, but he has proven to be a very reliable option in the Padres rotation. A projected wind blowing in from left-center field will help Musgrove in a pitchers’ ballpark.
The highest priced pitcher on FanDuel’s main slate is Framber Valdez from the Houston Astros. Valdez is priced high, but rated low on the Bales Model tonight. Although he has consistently struck out a high number of batters recently, his K/9 this season is only 8.66. The Padres, who Valdez will be on the hill against, do not strike out that often. Currently they are ranked 23rd in MLB with 1,114 team strikeouts.
This game is expected to be a pitcher’s duel as the home team is slight favorites. This may be a good spot to fade the Astros right handed pitcher as the Padres have been in a slump lately but are more than due for an offensive outburst.
Julio Urias’ 2021 statistics so far this season are extremely impressive. In 150.2 innings pitched, he has struck out 160, has a 3.17 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 15-3 record. The 15 wins are atop the leaderboard for all pitchers in MLB.
In a divisional battle against the San Francisco Giants, the Dodgers will be leaning on their young lefty to have another strong performance. Over the past four games, the Dodgers have allowed a total of 11 runs against while their bats have been somewhat quiet. Urias will hope for some added run support today to add to his league-leading win total.
Value
One of the highest rated pitchers per Bales Model on the slate today is Jose Suarez from the Los Angeles Angels. Although Suarez has given up at least one run in the last 11 games he has pitched, his low price and opponent today make for him to be an extremely high bargain play. Suarez will be on the mound tonight against the Texas Rangers who have the second worst record in the American League (47-87) and are projected for a low implied run total of 3.9.
In Suarez’s start against the Rangers earlier this season, he threw for 5.2 innings in which he allowed three runs and struck out six. Hoping for an even better performance this time around, I highly recommend having Suarez in your lineups today.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -109 Atlanta Braves:
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Jorge Soler (R)
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Austin Riley (R)
The Braves are projected for the highest implied runs total on the slate today (5.6 runs). On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $16.2k in salary and are projected for a combined 51.3 fantasy points. Although leading the National League East Division by two games, the Braves have lost seven of their last 10 games.
Tonight, they have the luxury of playing at Coors Field where the baseball is expected to be flying high tonight. Through 134 games, the Braves rank third in MLB in team home runs with 196. Look for them to reach the 200 mark by the end of the weekend.
Other Hitters
The highest rated batter on the Bales Model for FanDuel is Raimel Tapia from the Colorado Rockies. Tapia is projected to lead off for the Rockies who are projected for the second highest implied runs total on the slate (5.5 runs). If you can’t tell already, we highly recommend stacking batters in this game, however they may have higher ownership.
If you are looking for lower ownership players to use, I recommend viewing the Bales Model for the Seattle Mariners and Arizona Diamondbacks game. Many names are highly rated with a lower projected ownership.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Leody Taveras
- Jace Peterson
- Brian Goodwin
- Cal Raleigh
- Carson Kelly
Pictured above: Framber Valdez
Credit: Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images
