Thursday features Game 4 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and the New York Yankees at 8:08 p.m. ET.
The single-game format will take center stage, so let’s start by taking a brief look at the different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Format
FanDuel will use its traditional single-game format. That means you’ll have to roster one MVP, one All-Star and three utilities. Your MVP will get a 2x scoring bonus while your All-Star will get a 1.5x scoring bonus. You don’t need to pay additional salary to roster players in those premium spots.
FanDuel also features only hitters. You won’t have to worry about choosing between any of the pitchers on either roster and can focus simply on which batters you think will score the most fantasy points.
The DraftKings format is a little more complicated. For starters, you have to roster six players instead of five, and you’ll have to choose between batters and pitchers. DraftKings also features a captain, who earns a 1.5x scoring multiplier, but will cost 1.5x their traditional salary.
Relief pitchers also become viable options in this format. They aren’t as dominant as they were in previous seasons — last year they earned more points for innings pitched and strikeouts than starting pitchers — but they still have the potential to provide excellent value at their current salaries. Most of the relievers are priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, so pitchers who have the potential to pitch multiple innings are particularly intriguing.
Pitchers
Game 4 features a rematch from Game 1 of the ALCS, with Masahiro Tanaka taking on Zack Greinke. Tanaka was victorious in that contest despite being on the road, and he limited a potent Astros’ offense to just one hit and one walk over six scoreless innings. Greinke was less successful — he allowed three earned runs over six innings — but he did rack up more strikeouts.
Tanaka’s last start continued his absolute dominance during the postseason throughout his career. It lowered his ERA to just 1.32 over seven starts, including a 0.95 ERA during the ALCS in particular.
He should also be more comfortable in Game 4 pitching at Yankee Stadium. He was drastically better at home (3.10 ERA) than on the road (6.00 ERA) this season, and he averaged roughly 6.5 additional DraftKings points per game when pitching in New York (per the Trends tool).
Tanaka has the slight edge in this contest in terms of Vegas data. He’s a -133 favorite, which gives him a better mark in terms of opponent implied team total. Neither pitcher is expected to do particularly well in terms of run prevention — the Yankees are implied for 4.6 runs and the Astros are implied for 4.0 runs — but Tanaka appears to have a better chance of keeping his opponent at bay.
The one big negative with Tanaka is his strikeout upside. He posted a career-low 7.37 K/9 this season, and the Astros struck out in just 18.4% of at bats vs. right-handers during the regular season. That was the lowest mark in all of baseball. Tanaka’s current strikeout prop sits at just 4.0, so he’s going to need to limit the damage on balls in play to post another successful outing.
Greinke has been a huge disappointment for the Astros so far this postseason. He’s made just two starts, but he’s posted an 0-2 record while allowing nine earned runs over just 9.2 innings. He’s been victimized in particular by the long ball, allowing five HRs to the Yankees and Rays.
Can he right the ship in Game 4? I’m skeptical. The Yankees’ lineup can do some serious damage vs. right-handers, particularly in the power department. They were missing sluggers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for much of the season, but they still finished third in ISO. They also led the league in runs per game and finished tied for first in HRs per game. Greinke is not nearly as dominant as teammates Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, so it would not be a shock to see the Yankees get to him in this contest.
That said, Greinke does appear to possess the higher ceiling. The big difference between the Yankees’ and Astros’ lineups is that the Yankees are much more strikeout prone. Greinke’s strikeout prop is currently listed a 5.5, so he has the potential to rack up more whiffs than Tanaka.
Greinke also benefits from the bullpen situation. The Yankees love to lean on their bullpen, so Aaron Boone will likely go to a reliever if Tanaka gets into early trouble. The Astros’ bullpen isn’t quite as deep, so Greinke will likely have a slightly longer leash.
Overall, neither pitcher stands out as a must-play on this slate, but both pitchers have some merit. Tanaka will likely command the higher ownership, but Greinke has arguably the higher ceiling.
The bullpens could provide some value in this contest. Roberto Osuna headlines the Astros pen. He leads the relievers with 2.2 innings pitched during this series, and he’s yet to allow a single baserunner. He also struck out 73 batters over 65 innings during the regular season, so he has some strikeout upside as well.
Joe Smith, Will Harris, and Ryan Pressly will likely serve as the bridge between Greinke and Osuna. Each option is priced at just $3,000, which gives each some appeal. That said, none of them are a very strong bet to pitch multiple innings.
Unsurprisingly, the Yankees have gotten much more use out of their bullpen in this series. Tommy Kahnle, Zack Britton, and Chad Green have all pitched more innings than Game 2 starter James Paxton, and Britton has appeared in all three games this series. All three are priced at the minimum and will be available early if Tanaka falters.
Aroldis Chapman hasn’t pitched since Game 1, so he should be available for multiple innings tonight if needed. All of his outs have been recorded via strikeouts in this series, so he has massive upside if you think the Yankees will win this contest.
Batters
Astros Projected Lineup
- 1. George Springer (R)
- 2. Jose Altuve (R)
- 3. Michael Brantley (L)
- 4. Alex Bregman (R)
- 5. Yuli Gurriel (R)
- 6. Yordan Alvarez (L)
- 7. Carlos Correa (R)
- 8. Josh Reddick (L)
- 9. Robinson Chirinos (R)
The Astros’ lineup is just so deep and talented. Correa, Gurriel, and Alvarez could all hit in the top four for most clubs in the majors. Even Reddick is an above-average hitter vs. right-handers, evidenced by his HR off Luis Severino in Game 3 of this series. You really can’t go wrong targeting anyone in this lineup.
Of course, some options stand out as better than others. Brantley looks like the best pure value at just $7,400 on DraftKings. He crushed right-handers during the regular season, posting a 146 wRC+, and he was even better when facing right-handers on the road. He gets a massive park upgrade today at Yankee Stadium, which is notorious for its short porch in right field.
Springer does not get the same park upgrade as Brantley, but he’s extremely dangerous vs. right-handed pitchers. He posted a 161 wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, and 31 of his 39 HRs came against right-handed pitchers as well. He leads all Astros’ batters in terms of ceiling projection in our MLB Models.
Gurriel moved up in the order in the Astros’ last game, which makes him another value worth considering. Like Springer, he’s a right-handed batter who is at his best vs. right-handed pitching: He posted a 140 wRC+ vs. right-handers this season.
Reddick could fly a bit under-the-radar despite his HR in his last game, but he has elite history vs. Tanaka. He’s taken him yard twice in just 12 career at bats, so he’s a candidate to hit another HR today.
Yankees Lineup
- 1. D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- 2. Aaron Judge (R)
- 3. Aaron Hicks (S)
- 4. Gleyber Torres (R)
- 5. Edwin Encarnacion (R)
- 6. Brett Gardner (L)
- 7. Gary Sanchez (R)
- 8. Giovanny Urshella (R)
- 9. Didi Gregorious (L)
The Yankees have had a fluid lineup for most of the season, and tonight’s game is no exception. Giancarlo Stanton remains out with a quad injury, although he is available to pinch hit.
The biggest change is Hicks moving up to the No. 3 spot in the order. He’s priced like a bottom-of-the-order batter, which makes him a tough fade at just $6,400 on DraftKings. He will likely be among the highest-owned batters on the slate, but he’s a tough fade.
LeMahieu and Judge obviously deserve consideration at the top of the lineup. LeMahieu has dominated for the Yanks this season, while Judge has as much upside as any batter in baseball.
If you’re looking for a cheaper option, consider Sanchez. He’s batting low in the order, but he actually leads the team in ISO vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. He has struggled so far this postseason, but he’s capable of getting hot in a hurry.
Last but not least is Gardner, who is one of the few batters that will have the splits advantage on Greinke. He’s been one of the Yankees’ best hitters vs. right-handers over the past 12 months, ranking first in wOBA and second in ISO. That’s very impressive considering the talent in that lineup.
Pictured: Yankees CF Aaron Hicks (31)
Photo Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
