The mid-week main slate does not match between FanDuel and DraftKings, so today’s main slate article with feature FanDuel’s eight-game slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Four pitchers lead pricing on FanDuel:
- Zack Wheeler (R) $11,200, PHI @ CHC
- Luis Garcia (R) $9,700, HOU vs OAK
- Sean Manaea (L) $9,200, OAK @ HOU
- Yusei Kikuchi (L) $9,000, SEA vs NYY
Weather could play a role in Zack Wheeler’s start against the Cubs. The is approximately a 50/50 chance for precipitation and temperatures below 70 degrees. Short of a monsoon, Wheeler is in one of the better spots with Chicago spiraling, losing 11 consecutive games. Wheeler leads all pitchers in projected points and has the second-highest consistency rating according to the Bales Model. The Over/Under is at seven runs, the lowest by 1.5 runs. The Phillies have scored 28 runs in the first two games against Chicago.
Luis Garcia projects for 3.3 Points Per $1,000 of salary, the lowest among the top-priced pitchers. The Oakland Athletics’ 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers on the road is top 10 in baseball and only a small dip from their performance against righties at home. The A’s also have had some of the worst luck against pitchers like Garcia away from the Bay (.263 BABIP, T-28th). Garcia has been a full run better at home as a starter, including allowing fewer home runs and walks in 10 more innings. He has the highest consistency rating among projected starters and could see a small dip in ownership based on the quality of his opponent. There is plenty of risk/reward with Garcia.
Sean Manaea has returned to his pre-2020 numbers in a good way and is throwing his fastball at its highest velocity since 2017. The Astros have a 114 wRC+ at home against left-handed pitching and continue to lead baseball with the lowest strikeout rate. Manaea is 0-1 in three starts against Houston in 2021 with his best outing against them coming in Houston April 9. Houston’s offense is among the best in the league and is a difficult team to have a starter facing. Despite a strong first half, Manaea is only the 10th-ranked pitcher on the Bales Model.
The Yankees throttled lefty Justus Sheffield Tuesday night and get the opportunity to do so again with Yusei Kikuchi toeing the rubber for Seattle. Kikuchi is much better than Sheffield and is one of my favorite pitchers despite a difficult matchup. The Yankees have one of the higher Groundball-to-Flyball ratios on the road against southpaws and do not have a strong Hard Hit rate to back up their play against lefties. Kikuchi has met or exceeded his projections in 13 of 16 starts this season and has 11 quality starts.
Value
Domingo Germán has failed to reach 20 FanDuel points in four consecutive starts. But have you seen how inept the Mariners’ offense can be? Germán is a top-five option, has similar projections as Garcia, Manaea and Kikuchi and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus. There is a precipitous drop in upside with the pitchers priced below Germán and there is a $1,100 gap between him and the next pitcher above him.
Fastballs
Chris Paddack is that pitcher. He is also the top-rated option against the Washington Nationals despite his ERA being 1.31 points higher at home. Paddack is also a reverse splits pitcher and notably so. His .520 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters is bad, especially with the Nationals hitting 34.6 percent of balls in play hard.
Alex Wood leads the position in Pro Trends. Wood and the Giants will try to avoid being swept at home against the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis’ 79 wRC+ on the road against lefties is 27th in baseball.
Notable Stack
The biggest favorite on the main slate also has the top FanDuel stack:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
- Bo Bichette (R)
- George Springer (R)
- Teoscar Hernandez (R)
Total Salary: $15,600
The Blue Jays are projected to score 6.5 runs, the most by 1.6 runs. Only Vlad Jr. is not a top 10 rated hitter.
Other Hitters
In 10 at-bats against Antonio Senzatela, Josh Rojas is hitting .500 with one home run.
Kyle Tucker has four hits against Sean Manaea. Three are for extra bases and two have left the yard.
Nolan Arenado is slashing .200/.310/.440 in 29 plate appearances against Alex Wood.
Austin Hays has a .593 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching. Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed eight home runs in six starts over the past month.
Photo Credit: Al Bello/Getty Images
Pictured: Zack Wheeler
