Wednesday’s main slate may not stick out as the best of the 2021 season. First look at pricing magnified a few discrepancies that will be fun to target and monitor ahead of lock.
Pitchers
Flat pricing at pitcher should lead to flatter ownership. Here are the top-priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Zack Wheeler — $9,700, PHI @ NYM
- Lance McCullers Jr. — $9,500, HOU vs. DET
- Dustin May — $9,000, LAD vs. COL
Despite being the top pitcher based on cost, Zack Wheeler is projected to have lower ownership than seven other pitchers. Just like Tuesday’s game between the two clubs, weather will more than likely play a factor. Not many players enjoy 56 degree weather with drizzle potentially lingering around the game. Wheeler has also been good for the Phillies since joining last offseason. His strikeout rate is up, and his ERA is not too far off his Expected ERA and Fielder Independent Pitching. He had issues in his second start against Atlanta, but that is expected with the firepower their offense possesses. The Mets are seeing the ball well (12.5% walk rate) but are not hitting it. New York is 26th in slugging percentage and have a slightly elevated BABIP. Wheeler can bounce back with favorable pitching weather.
Are the Astros going to show up against Detroit? Houston had looked great against lefties until Tuesday, while Jake Odorizzi struggled in his Astros debut. Lance McCullers Jr. has topped 30 fantasy points in both starts, and has the best stuff on the Astros pitching staff. Detroit has the seventh-highest strikeout rate two weeks into the season, while McCullers is projected to record the third-most strikeouts on the slate and is the Bales Model favorite on FanDuel.
Dustin May dominated in his only start of the season nine days ago. He topped the struggling Athletics and now gets the worst offense according to Offensive WAR – the Colorado Rockies. May is projected to pitch less than four innings despite the longer time between starts and having pitched six innings in his season debut. I am more bullish on May than the Bales Model and his position-leading eight Pro Trends on FanDuel. The Rockies have depended on Ryan McMahon to carry the offense with Trevor Story homerless in 40-plus at-bats to open the season.
Values
Matt Harvey has been OK so far. He also gets to start in Baltimore, where the weather is going to be less than ideal. There is a 79% chance of rain. The Mariners split Tuesday’s doubleheader with Baltimore and had issues with the better pitchers Baltimore sent out there. Harvey is not anywhere near his peak, but is the cheapest starting pitcher that is favored to win, according to the Vegas Model.
Fastballs
Charlie Morton is the favorite pitcher of the Bales Model on DraftKings. Morton only trails Wheeler in median and ceiling point projection. Morton is tied with McCullers for the most projected runs support at 5.2 runs and a positive 1.8 run differential.
Jon Gray has crushed his projections in two starts, including a dominant performance against the Dodgers eight days ago. Rostering Gray is not cheap, and his offensive support could be zero, but is one of the better leverage plays on DraftKings where two pitchers must be in lineups.
Notable Stack
I am kind of shocked that the Astros dominate the FantasyLabs Stack Tool, but here we are:
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total Salary: $15,000
Houston has the top-five stacking option based on our projections, and this specific group projects to score 50.9 points. All four of these Astros are top 10 players on FanDuel and DraftKings against Michael Fulmer of the Tigers. He didn’t crack the Tigers’ rotation entering the season but will replace Julio Teheran, who is expected to miss significant time due to injury. I doubt Fulmer pitches long enough to factor in a decision, and the Tigers bullpen is bad.
I will also target a Rays stack against Kohei Arihara. He has allowed five runs over nine innings and has two strikeouts. Arihara has not scared opposing hitters, allowing a 3.3% Soft-Hit Rate.
Other Batters
Franmil Reyes has displayed power against righties and lefties so far in 2021, but he strikes out at a lower rate against southpaws. Carlos Rodon was effectively wild in his first start against Seattle but has a tougher test against Reyes and Cleveland.
The batting average does not show it yet, but Austin Meadows is putting a morbid 2020 behind him. He continues to hit towards the top of the Rays lineup and has drawn eight walks, three off Mike Trout’s league-leading pace.
Marcell Ozuna is only $2,800 on FanDuel. Despite a slow start, Ozuna has hits in four of his last five games with three runs and walks, and four RBI’s capped by his monster game on Tuesday. Take advantage of the discount.
Ty France needs to get more love in DFS. He continues to hit well and his transition from San Diego to Seattle has been flawless. He has scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of 11 games so far this season.
