We have another heavy midweek slate (and baseball all day). Please note that the Mets-Cardinals game has been removed from Wednesday’s main slate because of last night’s postponement. The teams will play a doubleheader, and the second game’s start time is unknown.
The Hump Day main slate features 10 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A concise list of top-tier pitchers are worth your salary on FanDuel:
- Shane Bieber (R) $12,200, CLE @ KC
- Yu Darvish (R) $11,800, SD vs PIT
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,000, LAD @ CHC
- Freddy Peralta (R) $9,000, MIL @ PHI
No surprise to see these four pitchers as the top-four rated options on FanDuel according to the Bales Model. Only Freddy Peralta falls outside the top five on DraftKings.
Shane Bieber can lock a series win in Kansas City against the Royals. For as inconsistent as the Cleveland offense has been, it has been good enough, and the Indians pitching has stifled a good home offense. Bieber has double-digit strikeouts in five of six starts and has a fantasy points floor of 46 on FanDuel. His price is the highest of the season and rightfully so.
Yu Darvish has increased his fantasy production in each start this season. He gets the Pittsburgh Pirates and their -18.0 Offensive WAR. Only one team has a lower slugging percentage than the Pirates and San Diego is not the most hitter-friendly park. Darvish is the top-rated pitcher on DraftKings.
The Cubs took it to the Dodgers in their twin bill yesterday. Walker Buehler must get a win or Los Angeles will be under .500 on the road. The Dodgers have been worse offensively on the road, but a 103 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) away from the friendly confines is nothing to sneeze at. I wrote ahead of Monday’s originally scheduled matchup between these two teams that the Cubs are better at home and showed why against two of L.A.’s three best starters. Buehler has been excellent and gets high marks for a quick start to 2021 after failing to find his groove in 2020. He has lowered his Walks Per 9 Innings and Home Runs Per 9 from last season but has allowed a concerning increase in Barrels and Hard Hit Percentage. The cool weather in Chicago benefits pitchers, but Buehler needs to be the future ace he is expected to be for the Dodgers to avoid an embarrassing series sweep.
Freddy Peralta likes to strike out batters, and the Phillies have been doing so at the fourth-highest rate this season. Aside from Peralta’s counting stats, there is not much to like. The Brewers and Phillies are two of the six worst offenses according to Offensive WAR and have injuries littering their lineups. Peralta is also the smallest favorite of the four elite options and the Brewers are favored by 0.5 runs.
Values
JT Brubaker has deservedly seen his salary increase with his strong start to 2021. I still like him as a pivot from the quadrant above against the Padres because he limits the one category San Diego has excelled at – walks. Brubaker has a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio and would be a bigger story if he were not attached to the Pirates organization. Brubaker has increased his Soft Contact Percentage (Soft%) on balls in play by five percent from his first run with Pittsburgh last season. The Padres are top 10 in Soft%. I dig Brubaker and the Pirates causing trouble.
Adbert Alzolay has met or exceeded his projected point total in four-straight contests on FanDuel. His price increased by $200, and the Cubs have looked great against one of the best teams in baseball. He is also pitching better than his ERA indicates and has been Chicago’s most consistent starter.
When I see Martin Perez on a slate I cringe, but he gets the worst offense on baseball at home and is backed by the offense with the second-best Offensive WAR. Perez is priced under $7,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Stack
There are a lot of teams with high value ratings on FanDuel. Only one of them has a pitcher with two home runs this season:
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $14,200
Acuna Jr. and Freeman rank as top-10 plays on both platforms, and Acuna has had his price decrease $200 on DraftKings. Erick Fedde has pitched better of late for the Nationals, but his walk and home run rates are well below his career totals. He is a safer bet to allow a handful of runs than he is to shut down the Braves offense.
Other Hitters
Target Twins and Rangers hitters, but not because of the starters. Both bullpens are expected to see extended work and have ERAs over 4.30 and allow at least 1.29 home runs per 9.
Luis Garcia’s best outings have come against subpar offenses. He has a combined nine fantasy points in five innings against the Los Angeles Angels (two outings). D.J. LeMahieu and Aaron Judge are top-10 plays and have Bargain Ratings over 88% on FanDuel. Giancarlo Stanton maintains a 40% Bargain Rating on DraftKings despite a pricey $4,700 salary. I love the Yankees as a stack.
Alex Verdugo has reached base in seven-straight games. His best outing over that span was last night when he hit his first homer since April 19. Tigers starter Casey Mize has allowed three or more runs in three-straight starts.
Lorenzo Cain is 16-for-49 (.327) against Phillies starter Chase Anderson. He is cheaper than Kolten Wong, a favorite DFS target for his strong start to 2021. Cain has one hit, one walk and two RBI’s in six plate appearances since returning from the 10-day IL.
