Friday brings us a 14-game main slate with first pitch occurring at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Walker Buehler will be quite popular tonight. His opponent, the New York Mets, has fallen off the face of the earth the last few weeks or so. A large part of that is due to an anemic offense.
Buehler just faced the Mets last weekend. He turned in a brilliant outing, going seven innings with one earned run and 10 Ks. He has not allowed more than one earned run since July 17th. His monthly ERA is below 2.00 for June, July and August.
He is just been pure dominant of late and in cash games I would be very comfortable locking him in and figuring out the hitters from there. Buehler is a much better play on DraftKings rather than FanDuel, based on pricing.
Buehler hits for eight ProTrends tonight and the Mets have an implied run total of 3.3.
I think Chris Sale is worth a shot tonight, too. Sale will be making only his second start of the season, but looked strong the first time out. He was only able to complete five innings, but had eight strikeouts. The big key for me is that he threw 89 pitches, so I would consider him fully stretched out.
Sale will be welcoming the Texas Rangers to Fenway Park tonight. The Rangers feel like one of the handful or so teams that have punted on the rest of the year. They have multiple guys in their projected lineup that are available at site minimums.
The Boston Red Sox are steep -316 favorites for this game and the Rangers have an implied run total of 3.0. Even with the Red Sox’s brutal struggles offensively of late, this should be a get-right game for them.
I like Sale quite a bit, and he is a decent savings off of Buehler.
If you want to punt on pitcher, I could see using Miles Mikolas. Mikolas will be returning from the 60-day IL, but should be built up a bit after making four rehab outings.
Mikolas gets the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in dire straights. That is really the best reason to use Mikolas because he is a relatively low strikeout guy. If he is able to complete five innings, he has a good chance at securing a win.
Maybe this is a breakout game for the Pirates’ offense, but they have put up 0, 1, 1, 3, and 0 runs in their last five games. They feel as cold as they have all season, and players may already have their offseason plans in mind.
It is a much riskier play than Buehler or Sale, but could pay off in a GPP.
It could be time to hop on the Blake Snell train. He is the second-favorite pitcher on the Bales Model tonight.
He has posted three straight strong outings and the San Diego Padres have rewarded him by allowing him to throw more pitches. He has thrown over 100 pitches for three straight games after only throwing that many in one other start this season.
That will allow him to go deeper into ball games, which should increase his chances of receiving a win. Tonight, he faces the Philadelphia Phillies in San Diego. The Phillies are floundering a bit after getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Padres find themselves in a tussle for the last wild-card spot that they probably never thought they would need to be in. That creates an all-hands-on-deck situation, but also means they want length from their starters when they can get it.
Facing off against Matt Moore should only help Snell’s chances of getting a win, with the Padres being -211 favorites in this one. Snell hits for six ProTrends.
The favorite play of the Bales Model is Sonny Gray, who has struggled a bit of late. The one positive is that he has maintained his ability to strike batters out. He has a very appealing matchup against the Miami Marlins tonight.
The biggest thing that would scare me about locking in Gray is that this game is in Cincinnati. A lot of the Reds’ starters have gross splits home vs. away just because of how much of a hitters’ park their home park is. Gray has a 5.44 ERA at home and 3.38 ERA on the road, with nine of his 12 home runs occurring at home.
Now, that may be moot because the Marlins have mostly packed it in this season. Gray’s price has come down so much this season that I can see why he rates well on the model. The price would also allow you to bite off a Coors stack as well, if you want.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
- 5. C.J. Cron (R – 13-16%)
- 3. Trevor Story (R – 9-12%)
- 4. Charlie Blackmon (L – 9-12%)
- 1. Connor Joe (R – 9-12%)
This group of four is projected for 55.7 FanDuel points on a salary of $15,900. They face left-hander Tyler Gilbert of the Diamondbacks. It really feels as if the Rockies have been able to turn it on at home. I would not be looking to stack the Diamondbacks’ side as every starter for the Rockies seems to have figured out how to pitch at home. The problem with trying to roster this stack is that it makes Buehler or Sale very difficult to own as well. The Rockies have the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.6.
Other Hitters
Gary Sanchez at $2,500 on FanDuel seems awfully low. He just got a day off last night, so he will definitely be in the lineup. He is 2-for-7 with a double since returning from the COVID IL. The Yankees could really tee off on lefty Charlie Barnes, who is just cutting his teeth in the bigs.
I have loved Eduardo Escobar the whole season. He has continued to hit since joining the Milwaukee Brewers. He is a 99% Bargain Rating on the Bales Model tonight. He is hitting .323 in the month of August, with a hit in 10 of 11 games. He only has one home run in August thus far, but has become a more well-rounded hitter. We do not know who is starting for the Washington Nationals, so that could mean a bevy of bullpen arms.
Mike Moustakas is too cheap, too, hitting in the four- or five-hole for the Cincinnati Reds. All season the Reds have held one of the best scoring offenses, especially when at home, which they are tonight. Moustakas is definitely in a bit of a slide for the month of August, but is still able to work walks to avoid bagels. He will be in his positive split against a RHP, as he barely ever plays against lefties.
Photo Credit: Richard T Gagnon/Getty Images
Pictured: Chris Sale
