Monster Monday slate is on tap as 13 games are on the main slate tonight. The slate locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The top-end talent tonight on FanDuel includes a pitcher’s duel in Chicago, southpaws and a rookie:
- Lance Lynn (R) $11,000, CHW vs TB
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,800, TB @ CHW
- Sean Manaea (L) $9,900, OAK vs LAA
- Austin Gomber (L) $9,500, COL vs SD
- Alek Manoah (R) $9,000, TOR @ BOS
The Southside of Chicago is home to the best game on the schedule on Monday when Lance Lynn and Tyler Glasnow face off in a battle of two first place teams. Both pitchers have been excellent in 2021 and each has a strong case for the Cy Young. That said, Lynn’s 1.23 ERA is notably lower than his 2.60 Expected ERA and 3.89 xFIP. Glasnow is safely within the realm of his expected numbers and is a strikeout force.
Both offenses have thrived this season. The Rays have the top Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching on the road, while the White Sox are tied for fifth at home against righties. This is going to be unstoppable forces versus immovable objects on the baseball field.
Rays-White Sox has a projected run total of seven, the lowest on the evening. With Vegas leaning toward the pitchers, Glasnow and Lynn come in as the top-rated pitchers on DraftKings, and are top-10 options on FanDuel according to the Bales Model. The duo also tops fantasy point projections.
Sean Manaea shut down the Los Angeles Angels May 23 and 28, allowing two runs on 10 hits and collecting a 14:5 K/BB ratio in 11 2/3 innings. Despite being tied for the most Pro Trends on FanDuel, Manaea does not rate favorably in part because he pitches more to contact than expected from a pitcher priced so high.
Austin Gomber and Alek Manoah are two of the three lowest-rated pitchers in the Bales Model for different reasons. Gomber pitches in Colorado against the Padres, where San Diego put up 24 runs in its only trip. That was also when Gomber’s season started to turn around and he allowed zero runs in his start that series. Manoah in Fenway Park is not ideal, but the Red Sox have had an odd June. It started with getting swept by Houston, sweeping the Yankees, and then losing two of three to Houston. A win tonight earns a series split with Toronto despite being outscored 30-12 through three games.
Both will have lower ownership on FanDuel than the previous three mentioned. Gomber is still underpriced on DraftKings, where I plan to target him in standard two-pitcher lineups.
Values
The top-three rated pitchers on FanDuel are priced under $7,000.
Kenta Maeda is tops on FanDuel and a top-three option on DraftKings. He gets the Mariners in Seattle, which is always good. My issue is this is his first start off the IL. He had an adductor strain and arm soreness while rehabbing. He has also been bad. Maeda has two wins, one quality start, and has topped 30 FanDuel points twice in 2021. Buyer beware.
Tony Gonsolin was not great in his first start of 2021. Five walks is an issue and it forced the Dodgers to have a bullpen day against the Pirates. He gets a fresh start at home against Philadelphia. The Phillies have an 86 wRC+ on the road against righties and despite a top-10 Home Run-to-Flyball ratio, have a top 10 Soft Hit percentage. Gonsolin has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and is $2,400 cheaper than on DraftKings.
David Peterson gets the Cubs after a tough series loss to the Padres. Lefties have been a challenge for the Cubs, especially on the road. They strike out 26.6 percent of the time and have a bottom-five OBP. The offense also has the lowest Line Drive percentage against southpaws in road games, a sign that their bats are not consistently making good contact. Peterson is one of the better contrarian plays based off recency bias with Chicago sweeping the Cardinals in its first series with 100% capacity at home.
Fastballs
JT Brubaker was met by the regression monster and is now where his expected numbers should be. The Nationals’ offense does little to scare me away from him. Washington has the second-highest Groundball-to-Flyball ratio and worst wRC+ at home against righties.
The Brewers are winning! They are 9-2 in June and their recent success takes away enough of the shine from Vladimir Gutierrez’s strong start with the Reds. He has allowed five runs in 17 innings.
Notable Stack
San Diego tops the FanDuel stack:
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Wil Myers (R)
- Tommy Pham (R)
Total Salary: $15,000
Pham is the top-rated hitter on FanDuel and DraftKings, while Tatis Jr. is a top-five option on DraftKings. All four are in the top 10 of hitter projections on FanDuel.
If I am being honest, I have no interest in this stack. It will be popular, it is expensive (especially on DraftKings), and I would not be surprised if the projected game total of 11 goes under.
I have an interest in a game stack of Detroit and Kansas City. Neither offense is exciting, but Brad Keller and Matthew Boyd are bad in their specific situations. Keller has an ERA over seven at home, while Boyd’s road ERA is pushing 5.50. Both teams also have Team Value Ratings of 90 or better.
Other Hitters
Adam Frazier is not going to hit the ball out of the park, but he is going to hoard hits. Over the past month, he has two games in which he did not collect fantasy points. He also has a .368 career average against Jon Lester with only three strikeouts.
LaMonte Wade Jr. is another cheap option on both sites. He has seven hits in nine June starts.
Salvador Perez is a top-rated player in FanDuel’s C/1B hybrid position. Carlos Santana tops the list, a hint to my strong consideration of a Tigers-Royals stack.
Nolan Arenado has three multi-RBI games in June and is only $3,400 on FanDuel, good for a 97% Bargain Rating.
Justin Upton continues to hit, collecting at least one in nine of 11 June games. He also has a 10:13 K/BB to start the month.
Photo Credit: Ron Vesely/Getty Images
Pictured: Lance Lynn
