Tuesday’s main slate features 11 games and locks at 7:05 pm E.T.
Pitchers
Tonight’s high-priced pitching options on the main slate include two welcome surprises, a young pitcher whose arrow is pointing up, and a former Cy Young award winner. They are not safe, superstar pitchers, but they offer enough volatility to keep ownership low:
- Zach Davies (R) $10,100, SD vs LAA
- Framber Valdez (L) $10,000, HOU @ SEA
- Brady Singer (R) $9,600, KC vs STL
- Blake Snell (L) $9,200, TB @ NYM
Zach Davies has been the same pitcher in San Diego that he was with the Milwaukee Brewers. The difference has been the park he calls home. Davies has seen an increase in strikeouts per 9 innings, an ERA one point below his career average, and has doubled his Barrel Percentage allowed to opposing hitters.
The other issue that scares me today: Davis possesses a 39.1% groundball rate, the lowest of his career. If he is pitching in Milwaukee, he is getting torched. I am sure Davies is happy to have been traded to the west coast. He ranks eighth on the Bales Model today.
Davies faces the Los Angeles Angels in San Diego. The righty will face an offense that is above average at home and on the road, including a top five walk rate against righties on the road and team Exit Velocity. Davies has the backing of an elite offense, but I would consider the next pitcher as my top option.
Framber Valdez has been a favorite of mine in DFS. He has average 9.61 strikeouts per 9, almost cut his walk rate in half, and is pitching better than his 3.82 ERA; the Astros have the second worst Defensive WAR in baseball. Valdez comes in as the fourth-best pitching option, according to the Bales Model as the Houston Astros are -169 favorites over the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners are an average team at home against lefty pitching; the offense has a 99 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and owns the second-highest strikeout rate. One thing the Mariners do well against southpaws is take walks (10.2%, 11th in MLB). Valdez recorded 40 FanDuel points in his only start against the Mariners in mid-August, and a repeat performance is well within range.
Brady Singer is a value on DraftKings tonight. He is priced as the 13th pitcher on DraftKings, while priced third on FanDuel. Despite coming off two 50-plus point FanDuel outings, Singer is the third-worst pitcher on the main slate according to the Bales Model. His opponent is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Bales Model has Singer projected as the second worst pitcher based on Plus/Minus, which is calculated by taking projected points minus salary-based expected points.
The game is a deadlock according to Vegas. TheSt. Louis Cardinals are -107 favorites over Kansas City who are -101 themselves. The Cards rank 20th in Offensive WAR and 22nd in wRC+ against righties on the road. I get why the Bales Model is low on Singer since the Cardinals can be Jekyll/Hyde offensively. The volatility is enough to fade Singer on a slate with few logical pitching choices.
Blake Snell is No. 1 on the Bales Model as he faces the New York Mets in Queens. Snell is tied for the most Pro Trends on the main slate, including playing in a top-10 park for pitchers and a projected strikeout total over seven. If you are of the betting persuasion, Snell has a strikeout Over/Under set at 5.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over has a bet quality of 10 using the Player Props section on FantasyLabs.
The Mets have slipped a bit offensively, but are still tied for first in wRC+ and have a 125 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitching. Snell (3.05 walks per 9) cannot allow the Mets to take free passes because that is one thing they do not do a lot. The Mets also hit home runs on 16.3% of fly balls. Snell has a career-high 26.7% HR/FB rate.
If you believe in Narrative Street, the Tampa Bay Rays can clinch the AL East with a win. The staff ace will be looking to wrap things up tonight. I will take my chances with other pitching options.
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Values
Seth Lugo ($7,000) has wonky numbers because he has split time between the rotation and bullpen. His most recent start was by far his worst, causing his ERA to balloon to 4.34, 1.82 runs above his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching score. The Rays continue to play above average baseball and rank top-10 in Offensive WAR and HR/FB against righties on the road. Lugo has pitched five-plus innings twice in five starts this season and needs the Mets offense to click for him to be a value pitching option.
Drew Smyly ($7,600) ranks third on the Bales Model today despite logging fewer than four innings in four starts. He gets the Colorado Rockies by the bay. Colorado has the third worst Offensive WAR and wRC+ in baseball. If you can handle not getting a win and quality start with your savings, Smyly is on your main slate short list.
Fastballs
A lot of pitchers are openers or do not project to go more than a few innings tonight. Bryse Wilson, Austin Gomber, and Jose Quintana are all listed as starters/openers against favorable offensive matchups, but none are expected to pitch long enough to log a win or quality start, hence the limited main slate pitching recommendations.
Notable Stacks
Today’s FanDuel stack projects to score 49.8 points and is not the most expensive option:
- Rafael Devers (L)
- Xander Boegarts (R)
- J.D. Martinez (R)
- Alex Verdugo (L)
Total Salary: $13,800
Despite the high projection, Alex Verdugo is the only player from this stack ranking as a top-20 batter in the Bales Model. Verdugo is hitting .353 at home against southpaws but has only one RBI in large part because he hits leadoff for the Red Sox.
I am skipping a few stacks to get to the cheapest stack I have recommended:
- Christian Walker (R)
- Josh Rojas (L)
- Kole Calhoun (L)
- Josh VanMeter (L)
Total Salary: $10,400
The Arizona Diamondbacks rate as the fourth-best stack on the Bales Model and project to score 46.4 points. Kole Calhoun is the only player who rates outside the top 15 batters. The Diamondbacks host the Texas Rangers and are -138 favorites. Arizona has a slate-best 94 Team Value Rating and project to score 5.2 runs, most this evening.
Josh Rojas is questionable to play with lower back discomfort, so a three-player stack is on the table. Eduardo Escobar projects to hit fifth for Arizona and would slide up in the order if Rojas is out.
Other Hitters
Trent Grisham has been hitless in three games since his 11-game hitting streak ended, but the Padres leadoff hitter has four walks and a stolen base in those three contests. The Padres project to score 5.1 runs this evening at home against the Los Angeles Angels.
A cheap option to pair with the inexpensive Diamondbacks stack is Nick Solak ($2,600). He has seven hits and two stolen bases over his past two games. Solak digs left-handed pitching, hitting .344 with 10 RBI’s in 61 at-bats.
Pictured above: Kole Calhoun #56 , Eduardo Escobar #5 and Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks
Photo credit: John McCoy/Getty Images
