The MLB schedule continues to be filled with games ahead of Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of summer. Wednesday’s nine-game main slate locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Two aces are among the higher-priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,500, LAD @ HOU
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,700, TB vs KC
- Domingo Germán (R) $9,300, NYY vs TOR
Trevor Bauer predictably has the highest projected fantasy output among pitchers according to the Bales Model. It is not as high of a projection considering the price tag in large part because of the opponent. The Houston Astros have surpassed the Dodgers for second in Offensive WAR and are tied with Cincinnati with a 132 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) at home against righties. That is best in baseball. This game could turn into a run-fest with the Dodgers offense getting Luis Garcia. It also helps to have the second-best wRC+ against righties on the road. Bauer is pitching some of his best baseball in his career. He has his highest Strikeouts Per 9 and lowest BABIP of his career, which is either a product of Bauer becoming elite or a sign of regression. Either way, I find it difficult to roster Bauer with the amount of games and players available.
Tyler Glasnow has the best matchup among the trio atop pricing. The Kansas City Royals are low on power, take their walks, and prefer to make contact rather than strike out. Glasnow is looking to bounce back from a poor start and gets to do so at home. He has allowed a .167/.213/.294 slash line in home starts. Glasnow will also need to get going quickly against the contact-heavy Royals. The righty has his highest ERA, average, OBP, and slugging against the first time through the lineup. The Bales Model ranks Glasnow second on DraftKings and is the preferred option on FanDuel between Bauer and the next pitcher.
Domingo Germán has not done much different since his strong run in 2019. One of the noticeable differences is the increase in the use of his changeup. It is a significant increase that has helped him maintain his success and improve despite not pitching in 2020. The Toronto Blue Jays feasted offensively in the Florida weather and have been average away from the Sunshine State. The offense is more contact-heavy than the Royals and has one of the best Medium Contact rates (Med%) on the road against right-handed pitching. I would like Germán more if he had more strikeout potential, but there are reasons he is up to $2,300 less than Bauer or Glasnow on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Value
Germán Márquez has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is severely underpriced against the Mets. He is walking batters at twice the rate of his career but is pitching near his career averages in majority of categories. Also, it is the Mets.
Chris Paddack has issues pitching deeper into games, but he is not allowing runs. He has one start allowing more than three runs and has allowed two earned runs in his last two starts (10 innings). Paddack faces the Brewers in Milwaukee, where their offense has the worst wRC+ at their friendly confines.
Fastballs
Marcus Stroman gets the road Rockies as the Mets try to gain a series advantage. Colorado has scored four runs in the previous two games against the Mets and are 3-18 on the road.
It is odd seeing Drew Smyly ranked inside the top 10 of the Bales Model. He has a road start at Fenway Park in the game with the highest projected run total (10.5). The Red Sox have a top-five wRC+ and third-best batting average against lefties at home. Hard pass.
I would rather play José Ureña against Cleveland. He is priced at $6,000 or less on both platforms and has an equally ineffective pitcher toeing the rubber for Cleveland — Tristan McKenzie. I really like McKenzie, but his season has been forgettable at best.
Notable Stack
Only one player in FanDuel’s notable stack has projected ownership around 25 percent:
- Josh Bell (S)
- Trea Turner (R)
- Kyle Schwarber (L)
- Juan Soto (L)
Total Salary: $15,000
Turner and Soto are top-six rated hitters on both platforms against Jeff Hoffman and the Cincinnati Reds. Josh Bell has multiple hits in his last three starts, while Kyle Schwarber just broke a four-game hitting streak in which he had six hits.
Other Hitters
Eugenio Suárez is $2,600 on FanDuel. Has he been bad? Very. But when spending down for a player, look for upside. Suarez has as much home run potential as any batter and Nationals pitcher Joe Ross has an inviting 2.06 Home Runs Per 9.
Blue Jays prospect Alex Manoah has a 0.50 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 18 Triple-A innings. He also has hit four batters and has an Expected Fielder Independent Pitcher score of 3.05. The New York Yankees have a 92 Team Value Rating, tied for first on the slate. Rain could have a minor impact on Blue Jays-Yankees as well. A Yankees stack is a good way to be different with other offenses in good situations.
If you want to play a catcher on FanDuel, look at Tyler Stephenson. He has a .350 Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) against righties and is $2,300. He is also confirmed as playing today so there is no concern of Tucker Barnhart starting over him at catcher.
Photo Credit: Harry How/Getty Images
Pictured: Trevor Bauer
