Thursday’s main slate is a six pack of games that locks at 6:40 pm E.T.
Pitchers
The small main slate has four pitchers priced above $9,000 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,200, NYY vs BAL
- Sonny Gray (R) $10,100, CIN @ CHC
- Sandy Alcantara (R) $9,200, MIA vs PHI
- Chris Paddack (R) $9,000, SD vs SF
No surprise seeing Gerrit Cole as the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings and ranks as the best pitching option using the Bales Model. He gets a rematch from a Sept. 5 matchup with the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees’ ace has logged 49 and 42 points against the Orioles this season with one win and two quality starts. Looks like an auto play, right? Maybe not.
Cole is getting hit harder than at any point in his career; 22.4% of fly balls allowed have left the yard, and 10.2% of hits have been barreled, according to FanGraphs. His career Barrel Percentage is 5.6%. The Orioles can hit the ball and do not strike out at a high rate (22.7%). Baltimore just cannot consistently turn baserunners into runs; their -3.0 Baserunning rate (BsR) is tied for sixth worst in MLB.
This is the only game with rain expected during play, but winds and other weather factors will not be an issue.
Sonny Gray has not pitched this well since 2014-15 when he played with the Oakland A’s in their cavernous stadium. He will look to follow Trevor Bauer’s success against the Chicago Cubs in another game that features the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field. Winds are expected to be around 14 MPH with game-time temperatures around 60 degrees.
Gray can rack up points with strikeouts tonight. The Cubs strikeout at the second-highest rate in baseball, while Gray has his highest strikeouts per 9 innings (11.91) of his career. There is no over/under set for tonight’s game because the Cubs will be “bullpenning,” but the Reds are favored (-132).
Sandy Alcantara will need an excellent outing to get rid of the taste from the Marlins’ collective mouths after the molly-whopping at the hands of the Atlanta Braves last night. I am leery of him being able to pitch that well against the Philadelphia Phillies. He pitched exceptionally against the Phillies to start the season but has logged two starts since because of a positive COVID-19 test with mixed results.
The Phillies offense has transformed since their early season struggles and rank as a top 10 team in on-base percentage, Offensive War, and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). They are an average offense on the road but have a clear advantage talent-wise. Vegas has the Phillies scoring 4.6 runs, while the Marlins are projected to score 4.5. The Bales Model has Alcantara and Phillies starter Jake Arrieta as two of the three worst options today. I will be looking elsewhere for pitching.
I do not know which Chris Paddack will show up tonight. He gets the San Francisco Giants at home in a situation that favors the Padres. The Giants have been excellent at home but struggle some as an offense on the road. They are middle-of-the-road in traditional hitting categories and rank 16th with a wRC+ of 97 on the road against right-handed pitching.
Vegas has the Padres as a -188 favorite and projects them to beat the Giants 5.3-3.8. On a short slate you must make bold decisions sometimes and using Paddack will save salary and have the backing of one of the best offenses in baseball. The Giants have one of the lower home-run-to-fly-ball percentages on the road, so Paddack (44.1% ground ball rate) will need to take advantage of Petco Park’s pitching advantage. Paddack ranks second on the Bales Model on tonight’s short slate.
Values
Dustin May ($7,600) is the chalk savings on tonight’s small slate. The Los Angeles Dodgers are heavy favorites against the Arizona Diamondbacks and project for 5.8 runs, the most this evening. May has had one big game on FanDuel but has logged quality starts in each start that he pitches at least six innings. May will also make tonight’s best stack attainable. DraftKings priced May as the third pitcher on their main slate while he ranks eighth on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Albert Alzolay, Trevor Cahill, and Mike Kickham will all be openers this evening. Alzolay and Cahill have an opportunity to pitch more than a few innings, but they offer limited upside and almost zero chance of collecting a win.
Notable Stacks
The Dodgers continue to be a favorite of the Bales Model:
- Max Muncy (L)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- AJ Pollock (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $15,600
AJ Pollock replaces Corey Seager as an option in the daily Dodgers stack. He is $3,000 and loves facing left-handed pitching. Pollock is batting .359 in 39 at-bats against southpaws in 2020 with seven extra-base hits. The Dodgers face Madison Bumgarner and his 8.44 ERA.
I have zero qualms with the Bales Model’s second favorite stack:
- Luke Voit (R)
- D.J. LeMahieu (R)
- Gleyber Torres (R)
- Aaron Hicks (S)
Total Salary: $13,300
The Yankees are project to score 5.6 runs against the Orioles and lefty Keegan Akin. I love this stack to fit in other higher-priced hitters, including Dodgers hitters from the stack.
Other Batters
Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte are expected to hit 1-2 in the Marlins lineup this evening. These two batters rank in the Bales Model’s top 10 and cost less than $3,000 and get a good match-up versus Jake Arrieta. Marte has a FanDuel Bargain Rating of 97%.
Mike Brosseau hits lefties and he hits them hard on the road. He hits .421 against lefties away from Tampa with three homers in 19 at-bats. Brosseau also is hitting .351 against lefties on the season; he gets lefty Mike Kickham in Boston. At $2,600, Brosseau is in the player pool for tonight.
Mitch Moreland ($3,000) is on a tear with the San Diego Padres and is in my lineups until he stops hitting.
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