Thursday features a 6-game main slate on DraftKings starting at 4:05pm ET, and a four-game main slate on FanDuel starting at 7:10pm ET.
Pitchers
Tonight’s slate features one pitcher over the $10,000 mark on FanDuel:
Studs
- Clayton Kershaw (L), $10,900, LAD vs. ARI
Clayton Kershaw will undoubtedly come in as the chalk on FanDuel’s 4-game slate on Thursday. He’s been strong so far this year with a 1.80 ERA, but the advanced numbers indicate he’s been a bit lucky; his 3.51 FIP is more than 1.5 runs higher than his ERA and he’s also allowing a career-high 46.7% hard hit rate.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been woeful against lefties, hitting to just a .276 wOBA so far on the season. Their strikeout rate is relatively low (19.7%), though, which may limit his ceiling in this one. Kershaw is a strong cash game option tonight, but with high expected ownership, a limited strikeout ceiling and a price tag of $10,900, it may be best to look elsewhere in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Dylan Cease takes on the same Kansas City Royals team he faced in his last start. In that one, he lasted just 4.1 innings and collected 25 FanDuel points. He walked six batters in that one, though, which is considerably higher than his career average of 4.38 BB/9. The Royals have been slightly above average against righties (.332 wOBA), but have struggled of-late, averaging just 0.8 runs/game over their last four.
His $8,900 price tag is middle of the pack and he’ll likely carry low ownership, making him worth strong consideration in GPPs. The Royals also have the lowest implied team total on the slate (4.5 runs) and are -131 favorites, further bolstering his value on a short slate.
Fastballs
Mike Clevinger will make his first start as a member of the San Diego Padres on Thursday after being traded earlier in the week from the Cleveland Indians. Clevinger is another case where his advanced numbers tell a different story than his surface numbers, with his 5.62 FIP coming in at nearly 2.5 runs higher than his 3.18 ERA.
His opponent, the Los Angeles Angels, have been above average against righties so far, hitting to a .337 wOBA and striking out just 21.3% of the time. At an elevated $9,400 price tag, it may be best to avoid Clevinger until we see how he adjusts to his new team. The numbers suggest he could struggle to hit value in this one.
Taijuan Walker takes on a Boston Red Sox team that has been hitting the ball well of-late, averaging 5 runs/game over their last five. The Red Sox have been average against righties so far, hitting to a .312 wOBA and striking out 25.1% of the time. Walker’s 7.91 K/9 is not much to write home about, and his 4.62 FIP is also below average, making him a risky proposition at his elevated salary. His $9,200 price tag on FanDuel is third highest amongst pitchers tonight.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies:
- Andrew McCutchen (R)
- Rhys Hoskins (R)
- Bryce Harper (L)
- JT Realmuto (R)
- Didi Gregorious (L)
Total Salary: $24,300
The Philadelphia Phillies are only available on the DraftKings slate for Thursday, but they have an incredible matchup against righty Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has struggled mightily so far this season, pitching to a 6.06 FIP, allowing 2.4 HR/9 and a 43.4% hard hit rate to opposing hitters (the highest of his career).
Rhys Hoskins has been excellent against right-handed pitching, collecting a .376 wOBA and .236 wOBA in 90 plate appearances so far this season. Bryce Harper has also been great, hitting to a .376 wOBA and .227 ISO himself so far.
The Phillies have the highest implied run total on the slate (5.9 runs), so they will definitely be popular. That said, it would be wise to have some exposure to this game, even if just with a one-off from the players mentioned above.
The Los Angeles Dodgers also rank highly as a four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Corey Seager (L)
- Max Muncy (L)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
Total Salary: $16,300
Mookie Betts is the top-rated player in the Bales Model on Thursday on FanDuel and for good reason. His .479 wOBA and .422 wOBA against right-handed pitching is absurdly high and he takes on a struggling righty in Luke Weaver, who’s 2.63 HR/9 is the highest on the slate.
Teammates Cody Bellinger (.355 wOBA, .326 ISO) and Max Muncy (.311 wOBA, .239 ISO) also grade out very well in this matchup against Weaver. In addition to the elevated home run rate, Weaver has also allowed a very high 53.6% hard hit rate to opponents this year.
The Dodgers 5.4 implied run total is second highest on the slate, so they will definitely have some ownership in GPPs (particularly on a four game slate). That said, if you can differentiate with a lower-owned mini stack, you can still fair very well in those contests.
Other Batters
Tim Anderson and Yasmani Grandal make a strong mini-stack option to pair with one of the higher-owned stacks mentioned above. Anderson, in particular, has been crushing lefties, hitting to a .652 wOBA and .647 ISO so far this season. Grandal has also been strong, collecting a .346 wOBA of his own. They take one lefty Danny Duffy on Thursday, who has pitched to a 4.74 FIP against right-handed hitters and allowed 1.98 HR/9.
Pictured above: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers
Photo credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
