Thursday’s main slate features eight games, starting at 7:07 pm ET.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected for the most fantasy points today are:
Joe Musgrove
Charlie Morton
Shohei Ohtani
Brandon Woodruff
The top-rated pitcher on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Joe Musgrove from the San Diego Padres. For having a record of 4-6, Musgrove has pitched extremely well this year. In 72 innings pitched, he has 96 strikeouts, a 2.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. Although he lost his last two starts, Musgrove struck out 17 batters in his last 11.1 innings. Hoping for some run support, Musgrove and the Padres will be facing the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are currently enjoying a six-game winning streak, however have the lowest projected implied runs total of 3.2 on the slate.
Atlanta Braves pitcher Charlie Morton is hoping for a bounce back game, as he struggled in his last start against the Miami Marlins. Last outing, Morton allowed four runs on four hits while having more walks than strikeouts for only the second time in 13 starts. This loss ended a personal three-game winning streak for Morton in which he struck out 20 batters in 17 innings. The Braves will be facing the St Louis Cardinals who are currently on a three-game winning streak.
The man, the myth, the living legend, Shohei Ohtani will be pitching tonight, so he will not accrue points from hitting. Ohtani has been as good as advertised for the Los Angeles Angels this season. In 47.1 innings pitched he has struck out 68 batters and allowed only 15 earned runs. Ohtani’s pitching flaw has been allowing walks. His last two starts he struck out 18 opposing batters, while only allowing two walks. If Ohtani can keep his walk numbers down, he will be in line for a productive fantasy day. Ohtani will be pitching against the Detroit Tigers, who rank second in MLB in team strikeouts (690) this season.
The most expensive pitcher on the slate for DraftKings is Brandon Woodruff from the Milwaukee Brewers. Woodruff has been elite through the first two and a half months of his 2021 campaign. In 83 innings pitched, Woodruff has struck out 97 opposing batters, has a 5-2 record along with a 1.52 ERA. With a quality start in three of his last four outings, Woodruff will be looking to continue his strong season against the Colorado Rockies. Due to the altitude and projected 10-mph wind blowing out to center, Bales Model does not rate Woodruff highly on the slate. One could possibly consider him as the biggest name to fade on the schedule.
Value
In terms of value, Joe Musgrove and Charlie Morton are projected for the highest points/salary on Bales Model. If you are looking for cheaper options, I recommend considering John Gant and Justin Dunn.
Although John Gant has struggled in his last two starts, this might be a great bounce back spot for the Cardinals right-handed pitcher at projected low ownership.
Justin Dunn from the Seattle Mariners has 48 strikeouts in 48.1 innings pitched. He’s pitching against the Tampa Bay Rays who lead MLB in team strikeouts (724).
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack comes to you from the Atlanta Braves, who are -191 favorites:
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Abraham Almonte (S)
Projected to have the third highest implied runs total on the slate of 5.3, the Braves batters will be hoping to take advantage of St Louis Cardinals pitcher John Gant who has struggled recently. Although this stack is expected to have higher than normal ownership, it is hard to fade these great batters. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $14.6k in salary and are projected for a combined 50.8 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
Bales Model predicts the highest floor play on the slate is Christian Yelich from the Milwaukee Brewers. Yelich has successfully reached base safely in his last 20 games and is hoping to continue this long streak. Although his batting average, RBI, and home run totals are all lower than normal, Yelich’s bat seems to always heat up when the summer months come around.
Milwaukee Brewers infielder Luis Urias is the highest rated batter on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Looking to take advantage of Coors Field, there are quite a few Brewer batters that are highly rated on Bales Model. Some with lower projected ownership than others, so I recommend looking closely at the model.
DJ LeMahieu is the second highest rated batter on Bales Model for both DraftKings and FanDuel. The New York Yankees have a projected implied runs total of 5.3 and will be hoping to take advantage of the inexperienced Toronto Blue Jays pitcher T.J. Zeuch.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today that are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Rowdy Tellez
- Brandon Lowe
- Gio Urshela
- Ian Happ
- Jose Iglesias
