Tuesday brings us a full slate of Major League Baseball games, with the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There are some studs on the slate. We shall start with Shane Bieber. He is the favorite on the Bales Model for DraftKings.
Bieber has not been his complete 2020 self, sitting with an 3.08 ERA, but he does lead the league in strikeouts at 117. He faces the St. Louis Cardinals, who are actually top 10 in the league in avoiding striking out, but in general are league average when it comes to offense.
The one positive with Bieber is his ability to pitch deep into games. He has gone at least 6 1/3 innings in 7 of 13 in his starts. He experienced a slight lull in his strikeouts in May, but has reached double-digit strikeouts in his last two games.
There is some good safety in Bieber.
Another big name on this slate is Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow is actually No. 2 in the league with 106 strikeouts.
He has a slightly more favorable match-up than Bieber, as he faces the Washington Nationals. The Nationals also are rather strong at avoiding strikeouts, but are 25th in runs per game at 3.84 in the category.
The only real way to get to Glasnow is by hitting home runs, he has given up ten on the season with seven of them occurring in May. The Nationals are 26th in the MLB with 55 home runs so far.
The Bales Model has a K Prediction for Bieber at 9.59 and a K Prediction for Glasnow at 7.95. If you want to save a few bucks off of Bieber, Glasnow is a fine pivot.
If you want to read the tea leaves, maybe it is time to get exposure to Dinelson Lamet. He is the favorite on the Bales Model on FanDuel, at a lowly $6,500.
Last time out, Lamet went four innings while throwing 72 pitches. Those were both season highs for him. For the most part, the San Diego Padres have been using Lamet as more of an opener/kind of bulk inning pitcher.
With his strikeout stuff, the first start that is actually a start for Lamet – could be quite profitable in a GPP. This is a back-to-back start with the Chicago Cubs team that is bottom-third in K%.
I would only consider utilizing Lamet in a GPP.
Aaron Nola’s price has clearly come down — it’s quite shocking to see hurlers like Pablo Lopez have a higher salary than him. I think it is fair to say Nola has not been as dominant as in past year’s, but he still has the capability to put together a nice performance.
Nola gets the Atlanta Braves, in his third start against them this year. So far, he has gone 10 2/3 innings giving up seven earned runs and having ten strikeouts. Those numbers are a bit misleading, as he had a pretty strong start on Opening Day against them and then his worst start of the year against them.
It is inherent that the Braves’ offense can do damage off of anyone. The Philadelphia Phillies are decent favorites in this game though at -159 and that is due to the respect for Nola’s arm.
Anytime the Colorado Rockies are on the road this season, whoever is facing them will be worth talking about. This time it’s Pablo Lopez.
As I mentioned above, I think that is priced into Lopez’s salary tonight. He is $1,800 more expensive than the start of the season. Of course, some of that is attributable to the success that he has had, but I think the Rockies’ struggles on the road are well known by now.
The Rockies average 2.42 runs per game on the road, which is by far the worst number in the league.
It is kind of wild that Lopez only has one win on the season, with a 2.82 ERA and no trip to the IL, yet this would be due to the own ineptitude of his offense. Lopez has almost exactly a strikeout an inning this season.
In ten of his twelve starts, he has given up two earned runs or less, while has has given up six earned runs in the other two starts. I like that consistency.
It’s a great match-up to play him, but he his starting to entire another tier of salary where he may not be able to return value.
Hitters
Notable Stack
The top stack of the night belongs to the San Diego Padres:
- 3. Jake Cronenworth (L – 36+%)
- 2. Manny Machado (R – 5-8%)
- 4. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R – 9-12%)
- 1. Tommy Pham (R – 5-8%)
This group is projected for 48.2 FanDuel points on a salary of $14,400. The Padres get to hit off of Zack Davies — a pitch-to-contact pitcher that has struggled at various points of 2021. He has a 4.94 ERA, but had a 1.72 ERA for the month of May. He doesn’ give up home runs, so that means teams are able to string hits together against him.
Other Hitters
If he plays, the Bales Model really likes Jonathan Villar (41+%) on the card. It has been hard to trust any hitter on the New York Mets, but maybe a visit to Camden Yards gets them going. Villar is 5 for 12 in the month of June and would have a nine-game hitting streak, if he had not pinched-hit in a game only to get out.
The Houston Astros could be a popular stack against lefty Martin Perez. Alex Bregman (9-12%) rates out as a Bargain on the Bales Model. Bregman has had a slow start to June, but had two doubles on Sunday against the Toronto Blue Jays. He feels cheap at $3,100 on FanDuel.
Nick Madrigal (13-16%) pops up a lot on the Lineup Optimizer. He will be facing lefty Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays. Madrigal has the 12th-best batting average in baseball, but does not have an expensive price tag as he does provide much power. He is off to an excellent start to June, as he is 7-for-16 with a home run and a double.
Lamonte Wade Jr. (5-8%) is a name that some may not now in the DFS community. Over the last week or so, he has become a mainstay in the San Francisco Giants’ lineup. He is one of the favorite hitters for the Bales Model, as he is so cheap and projected to hit atop the lineup. He is 3 for 17 in June, but has shown some early pop as two of those three hits have left the yard. He should not hate hitting against Jordan Lyles in Arlington.
