Saturday’s MLB DFS main slate features 11 games and locks at 7:05 pm E.T.
Pitchers
A couple of big-name pitchers are priced over $9,000, but the options overall are not particularly enticing:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,300, CIN vs CWS
- Corbin Burnes (R) $10,300, MIL vs KC
- Ian Anderson (R) $10,100, ATL @ NYM
- Lance Lynn (R) $9,900, TEX @ LAA
- Mike Clevinger (R) $9,800, SD @ SEA
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $9,100, LAD @ COL
Trevor Bauer has been excellent in real and fantasy baseball in 2020. He has a chance to keep the Cincinnati Reds in a playoff spot against the Chicago White Sox. The Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, but Bauer can rack up FanDuel points with strikeouts; Chicago strikes out 24.4% of at-bats, eighth most in the league. Sox hitters also have a bottom-10 walk percentage. Bauer averages the most points on FanDuel among the starting options, but projects to score 3.4 points per $1,000, which is the third-lowest projection among the high-priced pitching options.
The price tag is high but fair. Bauer is ranked seventh in the Bales Model today because there is a chance for a dud, but Bauer has the highest ceiling of any pitcher today. I prefer other options from the list above, but Bauer is the best pitcher on the main slate.
Speaking of strikeouts, Corbin Burnes has a high price tag because he gets a weak Kansas City Royals offense and strikes out hitters at a high rate. Burnes also loves walking opposing hitters (3.96 walks per 9 innings). The other drawback to Burnes is his inability to pitch late into games — in part because of walks and deep pitch counts to hitters. For all his shortcomings, Burnes has a Fielder Independent Pitching Minus (FIP-) is 43. FIP- factors where the game is played, and tonight’s game is in Milwaukee: A hitter’s haven. The righty deserves credit for pitching well at home.
The Royals are a bottom-10 team in offensive and defensive WAR, and Burnes cannot log a win without the offense scoring runs. Their Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) of 92 is tied for 22nd in baseball; their road wRC+ is also 22nd. Burnes can score well on FanDuel tonight and has nine Pro Trends backing him, but there is a cap on his upside because he rarely pitches deep into games. Burnes is only $8,000 on DraftKings and is a near-lock because of that.
I do not understand the pricing for Ian Anderson. The Bales Model has him as the fourth-worst option tonight on the road against the New York Mets. The Mets have the best batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ in MLB. They also rank in the top 10 in slugging and Offensive WAR. Anderson’s biggest drawback is his 4.09 walks per 9.
I do not expect Anderson to return value at $10,100, but it is hard to ignore that he has allowed one ball to be barreled according to FanGraphs and has allowed one home run in 22 innings pitched. I would pay up for Bauer and his known excellence before playing Anderson.
Lance Lynn has been a mainstay above $9,000 on FanDuel, and his 84 Consistency Rating on the Bales Model is proof of his ability to produce based on his historical scoring and pricing. His ability to pitch well in any situation will get a test against the Los Angeles Angels in Orange County. The Angels have a 139 wRC+, a league-best 12.9% walk rate, and a meager 18.5% strike out rate at home against right-handed pitchers. His pitching opponent has a better matchup, which I’ll touch on shortly.
Mike Clevinger ranks second in the Bales Model today in a road start against the Seattle Mariners. Clevinger also has the highest projected floor and ceiling against a Mariners offense that has a 76 wRC+ against righties at home. Expect Clevinger to carry higher ownership this evening.
Clayton Kershaw has a less than ideal road start in Colorado. Luckily for him, the Rockies do not perform above expectations against lefties at Coors Field (96 wRC+). The Rockies have the best batting average against southpaws at home despite a sub-.500 slugging percentage. I will not be on Kershaw tonight, because I do not want to tie my wagon to a pitch location-based pitcher with a career-high Barrel Percentage and a Home-Run-to-Flyball percentage that is twice his career average.
Values
Andrew Heaney is tonight’s number one pitcher on the Bales Model for FanDuel and DraftKings. He hosts Lynn and the Texas Rangers offense, whose 62 wRC+ and -84.3 offensive WAR are the worst in baseball. The Rangers’ 58 wRC+ on the road against lefties is not the worst in baseball, so there is that.
There was a point when the Baltimore Orioles were an offense to fear. They are not anymore, so Charlie Morton is an option at $7,600. He ranks third on the Bales Model despite a 5.14 ERA. The weather in Baltimore is expected to be below 60 degrees with a slight wind blowing in. Morton leads the main slate with 4.6 projected points per $1,000.
Fastballs
The Chicago Cubs and Minnesota Twins will have a chilly game in Chicago tonight. Michael Pineda and Alec Mills are both cheaper options that could produce above their FanDuel projections. Mills is a little shakier to use coming off of his first no-hitter and extended rest.
J.A. Happ has been awful but has the Yankees offense backing him up in Boston tonight. The Yankees are projected to score 5.9 runs and are -195 favorites. Happ ranks fifth in the Bales Model.
Notable Stacks
No surprise that we head to Colorado for tonight’s highest-projected stack:
- Justin Turner (R)
- Mookie Betts (R)
- Cody Bellinger (L)
- Max Muncy (L)
Total Salary: $16,600
The Yankees are the only other four-man stack that has a salary over $16,000 on FanDuel, but no other stack projects to score 60-plus points like the Dodgers. LA projects to score 7.6 runs against the Rockies and features two stacks in the top five! If this stack does not hit tonight, then your lineup will draw dead.
Since we are aware that the Dodgers are #good, we can look at the stack that is more lineup-friendly:
- Jose Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- George Springer (R)
Total Salary: $13,400
The Astros project to score 5.1 against Luke Weaver and the Arizona Diamondbacks. All four batters rank as top-15 hitters tonight using the Bales Model.
Other Batters
Corey Seager is part of the second Dodgers stack and fits into a lineup with the Astros stack. He is the Bales Model’s favorite shortstop play tonight and is second among shortstops with five Pro Trends.
Avisail Garcia is $2,700 and has a hit in 11 of 13 September games. The lack of power is not ideal, but the price is perfect.
Tommy Edman is riding a five-game hitting streak and three-game RBI streak. The Cardinals project for 4.8 runs this evening against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
