Saturday’s MLB DFS main slate features several fun regional battles; divisional matchups, including the battle for first place in the National League West; and chamber of commerce weather. The slate includes six games and locks at 7:15 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Two starters top FanDuel’s pricing tonight:
- Walker Buehler (R) $10,500, LAD @ SF
- Robbie Ray (L) $9,100, TOR vs. TB
Walker Buehler is the real deal and the future of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitching rotation. He is allowing more contact despite averaging more than nine strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), and his peripherals are in range of his 2.98 ERA. There is little concern of regression hurting his numbers, but his 83.3% Left On Base percentage (LOB%) is mildly concerning. Therefore, it may be reasonable to expect a slightly higher ERA in the future.
The good thing for Buehler the San Francisco Giants are not very good against right-handed pitching, including at home. The Giants have a -3.5 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) and are just below average when using Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). They also strike out at the third-highest rate and walk at the seventh-highest rate at home against righties. San Francisco does not put the ball in play 38% of the time, putting the onus on Buehler to make them swing and keep his pitch count down. Buehler is the fifth-ranked pitcher on FanDuel and third-ranked pitcher on DraftKings according to the Bales Model.
Robbie Ray is back to striking out batters to go along with his elevated home run total. He has also reigned in his walks, an issue that plagued him heading into this season. After issuing nine free passes in his first 10 innings (two starts), he has allowed just one walk in his last 30 1/3 innings pitched. If he maintains his 2.45 Walks Per Nine (BB/9) pace, it would be the first time in his career under 3.0 BB/9.
Ray faces the Tampa Bay Rays, who hit fly balls against left-handed pitching at one of the highest rates in MLB. The Rays’ hitting deficiencies include their low Hard Hit rate, elevated Soft Hit rate, and third-most strikeouts on the road against southpaws. The Rays are also middle-of-the-road at drawing walks against lefties, so Ray is in a decent spot to pound the strike zone and force the Rays to beat the Blue Jays defense. Ray rates lower on the Bales Model tonight in part because his opponent is as likely to win as he is.
Values
Shane McClanahan has logged four encouraging starts as a rookie. He has a flamethrower of a fastball and has struck out 30% of batters faced. The concern is the amount of pitches he has used to achieve that feat, as well as an astronomical 48.9% Hard Hit percentage according to Statcast. One positive is that he is still missing the sweet spot of bats with an 8.9% Barrel Percentage. The Blue Jays do not hit lefties particularly hard given their 131 wRC+ at their temporary Florida home. Toronto also reports an elevated .345 BABIP against southpaws at home.
I love seeing Adbert Alzolay establish himself as a major league threat each time he pitches. He has allowed 29 baserunners (24 hits) in 32 1/3 innings pitched and has been the Cubs’ most stable starting option. The Cardinals are another flyball offense; but unlike the Blue Jays, the Cardinals do not hit for a lot of power against righties at home. Alzolay can miss the Cardinals bats and help the Cubs secure a series win. He is the No. 2-rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fastballs
Chris Bassitt’s streak of quality starts ended at five games as he failed to pitch at least six innings for the first time since April 12. The Los Angeles Angels are slipping offensively, and the loss of Mike Trout will only exacerbate their woes. Bassitt has yet to face an opponent twice this season, making the Angels his 10th opponent in 2021.
Nate Eovaldi is the top-rated pitcher on both sites. The Philadelphia Phillies are bottom-10 in wRC+ at home against righties and have been wildly inconsistent. Eovaldi has led the underrated Red Sox pitching staff in 2021 and is still due for positive regression. His 4.50 ERA is 1.33 runs higher than his Expected ERA (xERA) and 0.97 runs higher than his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP).
Miles Mikolas makes his first start since the 2019 postseason against the Cubs. I have my concerns since it is his first start in the majors in in nearly 18 months, but it is important to note that he threw 80 pitches in his final rehab start. If you are interested in Mikolas, look for four to six innings out of him.
Notable Stack
After putting up a 16-spot on Friday night, the San Diego Padres top FanDuel for Saturday’s slate:
- Jake Cronenworth (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Trent Grisham (L)
Total Salary: $14,100
San Diego is tied for the highest projected team total on the main slate. Machado, Tatis Jr., and Grisham each have top-10 fantasy point projections, but only Grisham is a top-10 rated hitter. The issue? The Padres do not hit lefties well at home (77 wRC+). Grisham is also day-to-day with a heel injury after leaving Friday’s game in the fifth inning.
For $900 more, the Boston Red Sox take on Spencer Howard and the Phillies. Boston has one of the best offenses in MLB, including encouraging splits on the road against righties. Target the Red Sox big boppers in a plus matchup.
Other Hitters
Since asserting my weekly ‘Fade Enrique Hernandez’ on Wednesday, he has gone 5-for-12 with one homer, two RBIs, and one stolen base. Hernandez is tied with three Red Sox teammates with six Pro Trends on DraftKings. I am nothing if not motivation for MLB hitters.
Tommy Edman has a three-game hitting and RBI streak. He has an 88% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at $3,000.
Joc Pederson has gone hitless in three of 13 starts in May and has seven multi-hit games over that span. He also took the first pitch of Friday’s game deep against the Cardinals. His $2,500 salary on FanDuel is embarrassingly low.
Christian Vazquez continues to be a target with FanDuel’s C/1B hybrid position. He is a $1,400 savings from the top projected C/1B hitter Max Muncy and is projected for only 2.5 fewer fantasy points than the Dodgers slugger. Vazquez is the third-rated player at the hybrid position.
Anthony Rizzo has a .381 average, .887 OPS, and only one strikeout in 21 career at-bats against Miles Mikolas.
Photo Credit: Harry How/Getty Images.
Pictured Above: Walker Buehler, #21 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
