Sunday features a 13-game main slate on FanDuel, starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, and seven-game main slate on DraftKings, starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
FanDuel lists two pitchers priced above $10,000 on Sunday:
Studs
- Zack Greinke (R), $10,500, HOU @ SDP
- Yu Darvish (R), $10,200, CHC vs. CWS
Zack Greinke is coming off his strongest start of the season, pitching eight shutout innings and striking out seven batters while allowing just three hits. His 1.98 FIP is a career-low, and he’s also yet to give up a home run.
On Sunday, he takes on a San Diego Padres team with a below average .294 wOBA and a high 27.9% strikeout rate. However, those numbers may be a bit deceiving. The Padres have been on a tear lately, averaging more than seven runs per game over their last six.
Greinke’s $10,500 salary is also somewhat inflated relative to his recent play – he’s projected to score 2.9 Pts/Sal, which is one of the least efficient rates among all available starters. There are better options on a points per dollar basis, especially given Greinke’s less-than-ideal matchup against a young, surging Padres team.
Yu Darvish finds himself in a similar spot to Greinke. Darvish has been dominant over 30 innings this season, averaging 10.20 K/9 and pitching to a very strong 2.04 FIP.
He takes on a Chicago White Sox team that has been solid at the plate thus far, hitting to a .355 wOBA against righties. Chicago is also riding a recent hot streak at the plate; the White Sox have averaged 8.2 runs per game over their last five.
Given Darvish’s matchup and high $10,200 price tag, he should be avoided in cash games. You could do worse in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), though. The White Sox lineup will definitely scare DFS players off of Darvish, which would deflate his ownership.
Values
Corbin Burnes has shown great improvement this season versus a year ago, pitching to a 3.32 FIP (vs. 6.09 in 2019) and allowing only 0.43 HR/9 (vs. 3.12 HR/9 last season). While the Pittsburgh Pirates have been hitting better recently, their .300 wOBA against righties this season is below average. They also strike out 24.8% of the time — a rate that Burnes will likely surpass given his outstanding 12.43 K/9. At $7,300 on FanDuel, he’s a great low-priced option as a -166 favorite. He’s a strong play in both cash games and GPPs.
Carlos Carrasco is the third-most expensive option on FanDuel at $9,200, but he has not pitched like it recently. He hasn’t thrown more than 4.1 innings in either of his last two starts, pitching to a 6.75 ERA and recording a WHIP over 2.00. That said, he was a bit unlucky in his last outing, where his 2.93 FIP was more than three runs better than his 6.23 ERA.
His opponent, the Detroit Tigers, are in a solid get-right spot; the projected lineup is below-average against righties (.313 wOBA) and strikes out 27.5% of the time. Two of Carrasco’s five starts have gone for 52 FanDuel points already this season, so the upside to dominate is definitely there. His recent performances will scare people off, so ownership will likely be lower than it should be given the matchup. He’s the top-rated pitcher in the Bales Model and makes a strong GPP play.
Fastballs
There’s no denying that Dylan Bundy has pitched well so far, but his career numbers suggest that negative regression is coming soon. His 3.36 FIP is about 1.5 runs lower than his 2019 number (4.73) and nearly two runs lower than 2018 (5.17). At $9,100, he’s an easy fade against a powerful Oakland A’s offense.
Dylan Cease will get his first taste of the Crosstown Classic on Sunday when he takes on the rival Chicago Cubs. While his 3.32 ERA looks good on paper, Cease’s 6.16 FIP indicates he’s been lucky so far. In a rivalry game against a Cubs team that hits righties particularly well (.345 wOBA), the downside risk is much greater than usual. At $8,400, you’re better off spending the salary elsewhere.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man on DraftKings (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
• 1. Kevin Pillar (R)
• 2. Rafael Devers (L)
• 3. JD Martinez (R)
• 4. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 6. Alex Verdugo (L)
Total Salary: $24,600
The Boston Red Sox have the good fortune of taking on Wade Leblanc on Sunday, a lefty that has allowed more than 2.0 HR/9 and a 5.49+ FIP dating back to 2019. JD Martinez’s success against lefties has carried over into 2020, where he is hitting to a .392 wOBA and .265 ISO thus far. Xander Bogaerts has also been exceptional, collecting a .477 wOBA, .378 ISO and a 56.7 hard-hit rate.
Despite Boston’s early season struggles, the Red Sox offense has improved of-late, averaging 6.2 runs/game over their last five. Boston is tied for the highest implied run total on the slate (5.6), and the Red Sox will undoubtedly be popular in all formats. That said, this is the type of matchup they could absolutely dominate, so it would be wise to get some exposure to Boston’s lineup, even if you go elsewhere for your GPP stack.
The Washington Nationals rank as the top four-man stack on FanDuel (per the Bales Model):
• 1. Trea Turner (R)
• 2. Adam Eaton (L)
• 3. Juan Soto (L)
• 5. Howie Kendrick (S)
Total Salary: $13,500
The Nationals take on rookie Humberto Mejia on Sunday — a righty that has struggled mightily in his limited big-league innings. Albeit a small sample size, (6.1 innings) Mejia carries a 9.01 FIP and 4.26 HR/9 into this one against a surging Nationals offense that has averaged seven runs/game over its last five.
Trea Turner grades out remarkably well and is the top-rated shortstop in the Bales Model. His .385 wOBA and .257 ISO is strong, but his $3,500 price tag out of the leadoff spot makes him exceptionally appealing. Juan Soto has been otherworldly so far in 2020, collecting a .548 wOBA and .490 ISO across 60 plate appearances. He’s the most expensive outfielder on the slate, but for good reason; he has scored at least 18 FanDuel points in each of his seven games since August 12.
Other Batters
Mookie Betts is once again among the highest-rated players in the Bales Model. Betts has been crushing the ball against righties so far this year to the tune of a .492 wOBA and .446 ISO. He carries a 97% bargain rating as the projected leadoff hitter in a game where the Los Angeles Dodgers have a strong 5.5 implied run total.
Jose Ramirez has ridiculous splits so far this season against lefties, bringing a .435 wOBA and .458 ISO into Sunday’s matchup against southpaw Tarik Skubal. Skubal lasted only two innings in his first start, allowing seven hits and four earned runs before being pulled. Ramirez matches five Pro Trends – second most on the slate – and earns a 91% bargain rating on Sunday.
Adam Eaton is an extremely affordable option at just $2,600 on FanDuel. He’s projected to hit second in a great matchup against Humberto Mejia, whose struggles were illustrated earlier in the Notable Stacks section. Eaton has a .335 wOBA against righties so far in 2020 and should have ample opportunities in an advantageous matchup against Melia.
