Today is the day we thank the DFS gods for FanDuel. Keep reading to find out why.
Tonight’s main slate features six games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Two pitchers top the elite pricing on FanDuel:
- Trevor Bauer (R) $11,000, LAD vs SD
- Kevin Gausman (R) $9,400, SF vs MIA
Trevor Bauer is good and is backed by a good offense. It’s tough to ignore the factors that put him atop pricing on the slate. Bauer has also pitched nearly on par with what he did last year that earned him his first Cy Young award. The only concern that may lead to less upside is his Hard Hit Percentage (Hard Hit %). It has elevated to 42.3%, six percent over his career average and has allowed 3.5% more balls put in play to be hit hard. His hit percentage classified as soft has also risen nearly three percent. Bauer is good enough to adjust and overcome the additional increase in velocity of balls in play but take note. It could matter against the San Diego Padres as they continue to hit better and more consistently.
Bauer is a top four play on FanDuel and DraftKings according to the Bales Model.
The first surprise in pricing is Kevin Gausman. He has continued to pitch well away from the east coast and has been aided by suppressed offense playing in San Francisco. He also has a strong defense to support his lack of strikeout upside; the Giants are top 10 in Defensive WAR. He will need to rely on that defense against the Miami Marlins. The Giants and Marlins are equally mediocre on offense with Miami being worse and slugging. That plays into Gausman’s 62.9% Flyball Rate. It will be another cool night by the Bay with the wind blowing out. It will take a little extra to power the ball, but Gausman is in line for another successful outing. Gausman is also $1,800 cheaper on DraftKings and is the top-rated pitcher there.
Bauer and Gausman are pitching with their teams as favorites in the games with the lowest projected run totals (7) according to the Vegas Model.
Values
Aaron Nola is priced under $9,000 on both sites despite coming off a complete game, two-hit shutout. Nola travels to Denver to take on the worst offense in baseball according to Offensive WAR. The Rockies are top 10 in team slugging but are barely in the top 20 in Line Drive Percentage, a good indicator of how good of contact is being made. I am not buying the Colorado effect and will lock Nola into my lineups with his robust 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Dallas Keuchel is not striking out batters and has already depended on his defense to help his higher contact rates, but the White Sox are bad defensively, and the veteran is having bad luck. Toss out the poor outing against Cleveland because he found out that day he was pitching in place of Carlos Rodon (we know how that worked out). He rebounded on normal rest at Boston by shutting down one of the best offenses to start the season. Now he gets Texas, a pitcher’s delight. The Rangers continue to strike out at the highest rate in baseball and are a negative on the base paths despite swiping 15 bases.
I like him at the bottom of my preferred pitching tier. He is a top three play on both sites and is priced as one of the worst. Minus strikeout upside, Keuchel can pitch his way into a win and quality start while being supported by the White Sox offense.
Pablo Lopez has had one bad start this season and is averaging a strikeout per inning for the Marlins. He is a cheap pivot off Gausman with more fantasy point upside than Keuchel in a pitcher-friendly environment.
Fastballs
Kyle Gibson is $8,700 on FanDuel against the White Sox. Thank you FanDuel for making it even easier to pass on him. Gibson is $2,100 cheaper on DraftKings and is still not an option.
Two games appear to have rain impacting them at some point – Oakland/Baltimore and Arizona/Atlanta. Drew Smyly is returning from injury for Atlanta and the rain makes him a fade. I already have concerns with him pitching fewer than five innings, and potential bad weather makes it less likely.
Notable Stack
Back to Denver we go.
- J.T. Realmuto (R)
- Bryce Harper (L)
- Andrew McCutchen (R)
- Rhys Hoskins (R)
Total Salary: $16,500
All four of these Phillies hitters are top 15 or better options on both sites. Philadelphia has a 5.9 projected team total against the Rockies, the best on the slate. Andrew McCutchen is also the top-rated hitter on both sites. His .155 batting average does not tell the tale of his bad luck in 2021. He is not the MVP-type hitter of yore, but he is making excellent contact (63.6% Line Drive Rate). McCutchen also has an awful .186 BABIP and has an Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG) of .350, 100 points better than his season total. He is batting leadoff and has a locked in Bryce Harper batting behind him.
Other Batters
If the weather holds off in Atlanta, feel free to attack Madison Bumgarner. 26.3% of batted balls have been hit on the ground against him, and 88% of contact has been medium or hard hit (43.1% Hard%). Bumgarner’s fall from must-play has been swift and painful.
Yoan Moncada has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last five games, a welcomed sign after his sluggish start. He is only $2,900 on FanDuel.
Speaking of the White Sox, they have a 75 Team Value Rating on FanDuel and have the third highest projected team total on the slate.
Mark Canha’s stats look boring with three homers and five RBI’s, but his .414 OBP and four stolen bases are why he is averaging 10 fantasy points per game. He is a late bloomer and a major reason why Oakland is on a heater.
Austin Riley would be another cheap target against Bumgarner but buyer beware. Riley is a reverse-split hitter so far this season, hitting better against righties than lefties.
