Wednesday has a full slate of games with the improved schedule. Tonight’s main slate features 10 games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The elite options are thin compared to recent slates. Here are the top-priced options on FanDuel:
- Carlos Rodón (L) $11,000, CHW vs DET
- Tyler Glasnow (R) $10,800, TB vs OAK
- Steven Matz (L) $9,300, TOR vs WSH
- Zack Greinke (R) $9,000, HOU vs SEA
I am a little surprised that Carlos Rodón is priced above Tyler Glasnow, but Rodón’s early success has warranted a higher salary. It took three starts, but he gave up an earned run, causing his ERA to rise to 0.47. The early success is due to regress. Rodón sports a .105 BABIP and an xERA and xFIP well above his ERA, and the White Sox defense has been bad. Chicago is tied for second-most errors with 20. Chicago’s offense has also been up and down considering the firepower in the lineup. Detroit topped Chicago Tuesday night despite committing five errors. The Sox scored to two runs, left 26 runners on base, and went 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Rodón is a heavy favorite tonight but no lock based on the rest of Chicago’s play.
Tyler Glasnow looks like every bit of an ace and is pitching better than his numbers indicate. Glasnow has a good test against Oakland, an offense that has been above average against lefties according to wRC+. The Athletics put the ball in the air the second-most against southpaws but have only converted 12.2% of them into home runs. Glasnow’s 0.59 Home Runs Per 9 Innings is more than 50% below his career average, but it is not the first time he has had that low of a number in a small sample size (2019, his first in Tampa).
Rodón and Glasnow are top-five rated pitchers on FanDuel and DraftKings, according to the Bales Model. Glasnow is the top option on both platforms and is cheaper than Rodón on FanDuel.
Steven Matz has a difficult matchup against Washington once you ignore how bad the Nationals have been against right-handed pitching. Washington is top five in average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, Hard Hit Percentage (Hard%), and wRC+. Matz and the Nationals have had BABIP luck, so I see that as a wash. The Blue Jays also have committed 15 errors, tied for sixth-most this season.
Zack Greinke has a higher median and ceiling projection than Rodón and Matz and has the largest run differential and total among the top-priced pitchers. Greinke’s velocity is up on his fastball, curveball, and changeup, but his Hard% is the lowest it has been since 2015 when FanGraphs started collecting data. He is not striking out batters; his 6.06 Strikeouts Per 9 Innings is the lowest of his 18-year career. The Seattle Mariners strike out 26.4% of the time and are bottom-five in team slugging. The Mariners looked clueless in a two-hit shutout by the Astros Tuesday night and more could happen tonight.
Values
Based on pricing and who is atop pricing, there is not a lot of value, but players I will target:
Cole Irvin may end up being just a guy, but he has improved in his sole season with Oakland. His Hard% has dropped nearly 9% and his home run rate has lowered as well. His defense has saved him and he does not strike out a lot of batters. Good thing the Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best teams to face as an opposing pitcher. Irvin is a top-three Leverage play.
Huascar Ynoa gets the Cubs as they return to their offensive issues. Chicago has a top-four strikeout rate and the lowest batting average in MLB (.206). The Cubs will have to hope Ynoa has flashbacks to his limited work in 2019-20 because he had issues allowing walks. That is the only thing the Cubs are good at. Ynoa has a 75% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and projects for 2-4% ownership.
Fastballs
Alex Wood and Germán Márquez face off in San Francisco in a matchup between to failing offenses. Both offenses are ranked 25th or worse in Offensive WAR. Both team defenses are also very good, limiting run opportunities in a pitcher’s park. Wood and Márquez rank 2-3 on both platforms and have the lowest projected run total.
Alex Cobb has strikeout upside against the Texas Rangers, but is it worth it? The Rangers have scored four or more runs in six of their last eight games and have not been shut out in two weeks. Dane Dunning is good enough to match Cobb’s production and take away the chance for a win against one of the perceived worst teams.
Notable Stack
FanDuel’s top stack is an offense returning to health:
- José Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total Salary: $14,300
José Altuve is a top-10 rated hitter on both platforms, while Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez are top-10 players based on projections. The Astros are projected to score 5.1 runs against Justin Dunn and the Mariners.
Other Hitters
DJ LeMahieu had his best fantasy production in two weeks and gets another crack at the mediocre Orioles’ pitching staff. He is the top-rated hitter on both sites.
The Yankees and Blue Jays have the highest Team Value ratings on FanDuel, a great way to roster projected value while securing pieces of good offenses (for at least one night).
Nico Hoerner is projected to have up to 25% ownership on FanDuel because of his hot streak since being called up, and his $2,800 salary. I would prefer to save elsewhere especially since I am higher on Ynoa than most.
I think there is value in game stacking the Yankees and Orioles. Beyond the Yankees information above, the Orioles get a good matchup against Domingo Germán. Their Team Value is neat the top on DraftKings, and the entire projected lineup is $3,100 or less on FanDuel.
Photo Credit: Emilee Chinn/Getty Images
Pictured: Carlos Rodón
