Inclement weather did a number on Friday’s main slate and took away a few potential matchups from tonight. The main slate locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
The two elite pitching options on FanDuel square off in southern California in the second of a three-game series.
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,700, LAD @ SD
- Yu Darvish (R) $9,900, SD vs. LAD
Clayton Kershaw is on the back end of his Hall-of-Fame career but has not relented in maintaining his status as a fantasy commodity in 2021.
The elite fastball is gone and has been replaced with an effective slider-four seam fastball combination that is topped off with a slight increase in curveball usage. It has led to an increased Hard Hit rate and average exit velocity, but so far, it has kept the baseball inside the park.
It also helps that he has one of the best teams in recent history playing behind him. The Dodgers are off to an 11-2 start with star Cody Bellinger now out for the foreseeable future after having already been out since April 5. It’s no surprise the Bales Model prefers Kershaw over Yu Darvish and has him rated as the best pitching option on DraftKings.
Darvish has not had the same dominant stuff that has led to elite strikeout rates to start this season. I do not know if he doesn’t trust one of his numerous fastball variations yet, but the increased slider usage has continued in 2021 in place of a trustworthy fastball.
Darvish has also allowed more hard-hit balls, and his Barrel Percentage is 4% higher than his career average. That’s an issue against the best offense in baseball. Darvish has managed to score similarly to Kershaw in fantasy because of his natural talent, but he is also more likely to get into trouble sooner and with a worse outcome that could put the Padres in a big hole. Darvish remains a top-five option on both sites and has the highest Ceiling projection.
Values
It makes sense that the best highest-rated pitcher on FanDuel tonight is the lowest-priced pitcher on the slate with the highest implied game run total.
Jose Quintana has had issues translating a positive spring into wins. He has also had terrible luck. We only have five innings to work with since he has been pulled twice before the fourth inning, but Quintana’s BABIP is .556, and he has a Left On Base Percentage (LOB%) of 35.3%, half his career percentage. His Groundball Rate is nearly 20% higher than his career average while his Hard Hit Rate is lower than his career number.
This does not excuse Quintana as good, but it means positive regression is coming. The Minnesota Twins have had issues scoring runs this week and hope to slow down one of the few offenses better than their own. Quintana is as volatile a choice as there is, but five innings of winning baseball opens endless possibilities for your batting choices. He is tied with Brett Anderson with a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Anderson and Trevor Cahill take the mound in Milwaukee. Anderson has little upside beyond being able to pitch long enough to collect a cheap win, while Cahill gets to face one of the three worst offenses in baseball according to Offensive WAR. Cahill also shook off a terrible opening start to shut down the Padres offense this past Sunday. Anderson leads all pitchers in Pro Trends, and Cahill trails Quintana in Points Per Salary and Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Notable Stack
The top four stacks on FanDuel come from the game with two of the three highest projected team totals and the highest game total.
- David Fletcher (R)
- Mike Trout (R)
- Justin Upton (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $14,700
David Fletcher is the only hitter in this quad that rates as a top-10 hitter, and he does so on FanDuel and DraftKings. Median projections place Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani as top-10 hitters against Matt Shoemaker and the Twins. The only non-Angels stack to make the top four was the Minnesota Twins in the same game.
Other Hitters
The Houston Astros have lost six straight games and are without most of their best players due to COVID-19 safety protocols. It is difficult to recommend any Astros hitters, including Myles Straw, a top-three hitter on both sites. His bump to the top of the order out of necessity has gone poorly. He has one of the higher stolen bases upsides in baseball, but you cannot steal bases if you are not on base. Without them, he offers little in DFS.
Baltimore-Texas is tied for the second-highest game total on the slate at 8.5 runs. Only one lineup is a preferred target for fantasy: the Rangers.
I like Dane Dunning as a pitcher, and the Rangers have shown they can score runs. Dean Kramer of the Orioles has allowed seven earned runs in six innings pitched against average offenses in 2021 (Seattle, New York Yankees), which is what Texas has been. The Rangers are hurting for power, so tonight would be a good one for Joey Gallo to notch his first homer. Four Rangers hitters are in the top 10 options on both sites. Adolis Garcia is only $2,700 on DraftKings and has as much longball upside as Gallo.
Jackie Bradley Jr. is on a five-game hitting streak for Milwaukee, but his upside is capped by the Brewers’ inability to get on base or score runs.
Yuli Gurriel has been a model of consistency on offense for Houston. He is in the middle of a six-game hitting streak that includes three extra-base hits, two RBIs, three multi-hit games, and six walks. He is difficult to not roster considering Houston’s lineup issues and DFS players looking elsewhere for production. Gurriel is projected to be the eighth-most rostered first baseman on FanDuel.
Photo Credit: Ralph Freso/Getty Images.
Pictured: Mike Trout.
