I am a big fan of Saturday’s six-game slate because there are some great matchups, but also because the West Coast games are starting up to 90 minutes earlier than usual.
Saturday’s main slate locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Pricing is down among the elite options on FanDuel:
- Dustin May (R) $9,700, LAD @ MIL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (L) $9,500, BOS @ TEX
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $9,200, MIL vs LAD
- Zac Gallen (R) $9,000, ARI vs COL
The matchup of the night is in Milwaukee where Dustin May and the Dodgers look to win their first game in a four-game set against Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers. May and Woodruff have pitched as well as any pitcher in baseball, with Woodruff continuing a trend of pitching better each season in his career.
Woodruff gets to put his Cy Young-caliber start to 2021 against the fifth-best offense according to Offensive WAR. The offense has slipped after enjoying a strong start to the season. Los Angeles has feasted on some mediocre teams before running into Milwaukee and Cincinnati the series prior. Three teams have passed the Dodgers in Offensive WAR, and their once league-leading slugging percentage is now tied for 10th. Strikeouts are also starting to pile up, and that is something Woodruff does well (10.55 K Per 9). Woodruff is bound for some regression because his .200 BABIP and zero home runs allowed are unsustainable. That low BABIP can be credited some to Milwaukee’s MLB-best 14.7 Defensive WAR.
May has been stellar in his first full season in the starting rotation and is pitching better than his ERA indicates according to his Expected Fielder Independent Pitching. What you see is what you get with May, and that is bad news for Milwaukee’s anemic offense. The Brewers are bottom five in average and strikeout rate and will face May’s fastball that averages 98.9 mph.
There is zero surprise this game is tied for the lowest expected run total on the main slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez and Zac Gallen are just as worthy pitching options without the exciting opponent. Both are pitching for teams favored by at least 1.3 runs.
The Texas Rangers are a better hitting team than pitching but have struggled mightily against lefties. The Rangers are slashing .183/.243/.285 and have a 53 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) against southpaws at home.
The home/road split for the Rockies is more prevalent this year than at any point in recent memory with the offense being so bad. Colorado is slashing .198/.263/.280 with a -13.6 Weighted Runs Above Average against righties on the road.
The numbers say fade May and Woodruff, and roster Rodriguez and Gallen. Gallen is a top-two play on FanDuel and DraftKings according to the Bales Model. Gallen and Rodriguez rate higher than May and Woodruff on both sites.
Value
Griffin Canning has had some scary starts this season but has a solid 17:5 K/BB ratio in 15 innings. He starts against the Mariners in Seattle, a team that struggles reaching base and strikes out 26.5% of the time. Canning is also supported by one of the best offenses in baseball that will likely see relievers for much of their game. Canning has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has seen his salary drop $2,000 since the start of the season.
Fastballs
Blake Snell is the top pitching option on FanDuel according to the Bales Model and is tied with Gallen with the most Pro Trends. He gets the San Francisco Giants, an offense that is about league average but enters tonight with the same Weighted On-Base Average as the Padres. That says as much about the Padres as it does the Giants. San Francisco also has one of the lowest Soft Hit rates in baseball. Snell cannot miss much or else the Giants can do enough to put him in a hole.
It may be a slugfest in Florida between the Braves and Blue Jays, but Charlie Morton has logged two wins and quality starts despite getting hit around every other start this season. If trends is your thing, Morton is due for a positive outing after giving up five earned runs in a win against the Cubs earlier this week.
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected stack on FanDuel comes from an offense that is scoring runs as much as the team pitching is giving them up:
- Freddie Freeman (L)
- Ozzie Albies (S)
- Marcell Ozuna (R)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. (R)
Total Salary: $14,800
Warm weather and winds blowing out welcome the Braves potent bats. The projected game total is 10.5 runs and the Braves projected for 5.5 runs, tops on the main slate. Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna Jr. rate as top-10 options on FanDuel. Freddie Freeman is projected to outscore all first basemen by at least 1.06 points as long as Toronto’s bullpen cooperates.
Other Batters
For the eleventy-billionth day in a row, Enrique Hernandez is the top rated hitter on both platforms. My streak of fading him will stay alive.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a 132 wRC+ against lefties and is hitting .294 as Arizona’s number three hitter in their lineup. Austin Gomber is a southpaw who has allowed earned runs in every start and has walked at least two batters in each of his five outings.
Christian Vazquez is a 96% bargain on FanDuel, and the Red Sox projected lineup has a Team Value rating of 85 against Jordan Lyles of the Rangers. Since FanDuel has a C/1B hybrid position, Vazquez should see lower ownership as majority of DFS players target first basemen.
Mike Tauchman has four hits in his first two games as a San Francisco Giant. There is a chance he sits as a lefty batter against Blake Snell, but if he does play he is minimum price on DraftKings.
Mike Trout is coming off the best month of his career. How amazing is that? His 1.359 April OPS is the 11th best in April since at least 1922. I do not know if you needed more reasons to roster the 29-year old, but there you go.
