Thursday’s main slate on features seven games starting at 7:05 pm ET. We will be using Bales Model to highlight some pitchers and batters to consider when completing your lineups.
Pitchers
The four pitchers projected to score the most fantasy points today are:
- Max Scherzer (R)
- Yu Darvish (R)
- Taijuan Walker (R)
- Zach Eflin (R)
The fourth-highest rated pitcher on Bales Model tonight for both DraftKings and FanDuel is Max Scherzer. In his last five starts, Scherzer has added three wins to his resume while striking out 32 compared to only seven walks. Coming off back-to-back quality starts on the mound, Scherzer will be hoping to continue his strong form today against the San Diego Padres. The Padres are projected for the fourth-lowest implied runs total (3.9 runs) and are tied for the most wins at home in baseball (31).
On the opposite side of the diamond in the same game, Yu Darvish has been electric through the first few months of the 2021 season. In 102 innings, Darvish has struck out 123, has a 7-3 record and a 2.65 ERA. His stats at home are even better. In his 11 starts at home this year, Darvish is 5-2, has a 2.12 ERA, and an opponent batting average of only .196. The Nationals are projected for the lowest implied runs total on the slate (3.2 runs). Bales Model considers Darvish to be the highest-rated pitcher on the slate for DraftKings.
Bales Model projects Taijuan Walker to be the second-highest rated pitcher on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. In 85 innings, Walker has struck out 87, has an ERA of 2.44 and an impressive 7-3 record. My only concern with Walker is that he averages the fifth-lowest K/9 on the slate of only (8.77). Walker will be on the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank 26th in team strikeouts with only 705. The Pirates are tied with the Nationals for having the lowest projected implied runs total (3.2 runs).
Considered an 87% bargain on DraftKings by Pro Trends, Zach Eflin is another strong pitching option to look at today. Although he has struggled since early May, picking up only one win in his last nine starts, Eflin is coming off back-to-back quality starts. In his last two outings, Eflin allowed a total of three earned runs in 12 innings while striking out six. Eflin and the Phillies will be taking on the Chicago Cubs who have won only one of their last 10 games.
Value
The highest-rated pitcher on Bales Model for FanDuel today is Adbert Alzolay. In 72 1/3 innings, Alzolay has struck out 76 while allowing only 21 walks. My concern with Alzolay is that he has allowed two home runs in each of his last three starts. The Philadelphia Phillies, whom Alzolay will be pitching against, rank in the bottom-10 in MLB with 95 home runs in 84 games.
Another pitcher who has a high projected points/salary today is Danny Duffy of the Royals. For being a mid-low-priced option all year, Duffy has been serviceable from a fantasy standpoint.
Hitters
Notable Stack
Today’s top projected points stack comes to you from the -199 Toronto Blue Jays:
- Bo Bichette (R)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)
- George Springer (R)
- Teoscar Hernandez (R)
Not only are the Blue Jays the biggest favorites on the slate, but they also have the highest projected implied runs total (6.3 runs). They will be up to bat against the Baltimore Orioles (28-58). On the mound for the Orioles will be left-hander Keegan Akin. In Akin’s last five starts, he has allowed a total 26 earned runs, including seven home runs. On FanDuel, this stack will cost you $16k in salary and is projected for a combined 54.1 fantasy points.
Other Hitters
The highest-rated batter on Bales Model for FanDuel is Luis Arraez of the Twins. Arraez being highly rated is a common theme on the model as he is the leadoff batter for one of the highest-scoring teams in baseball. Not only does Arraez score fantasy points from crossing the plate, he has been swinging a hot bat. In three of his last four games he has had multiple hits.
Another infielder who is highly rated on Bales Model today is Cesar Hernandez from the Cleveland Indians. Through 82 games this year, Hernandez is well on pace to beat his career-high home run total of 15.
Value
Lastly, here is a handful of batters to consider while completing your lineups today who are projected for a high fantasy points/salary:
- Kevin Newman
- Ryan Jeffers
- Derek Hill
- Jeff McNeil
- Jared Oliva
Photo Credit: Mark Brown/Getty Images
Pictured: Max Scherzer
