We have a six pack of games for Monday’s MLB DFS main slate. Lock is at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
A trio of pitchers top FanDuel’s pricing:
- Lance Lynn (CHW) $10,100, CHW @ TOR
- Alek Manoah (TOR) $9,600, TOR vs CHW
- Zack Greinke (HOU) $9,200, HOU vs KC
Lance Lynn is priced as a top-two pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings but loses value in the Bales Model because he does not lead the position in projected fantasy points. Lynn has also only pitched nine innings over his past two starts, allowing five runs on seven hits and five walks. Since returning to Toronto on July 30, the Jays have been good but not great, accumulating a 103 Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) that is also the same against right-handers. Toronto’s slugging percentage improves a tick against righties at home (.440 to .448) and the offense has one of the better strikeout rates at home over the past three weeks.
Prior to his blowup in his last start, Alek Manoah had allowed four earned runs over the past month. He could bounce back in a big way against the White Sox, who have had issues with strikeouts, especially on the road since the beginning of August (28.1 percent whiff rate on the road against righties). The offense is still above average on the road and continues to thrive despite a BABIP over .300. Chicago is only 5-4 on the road in August. In his third career start, Manoah scored 24 FanDuel points and limited the White Sox to one earned run in Chicago.
The leader in Pro Trends and top-rated pitcher on both platforms is Zack Greinke. The Royals’ offense used to be one of the most annoying to face when picking a starter in DFS, but have gone away from their patient ways. Kansas City has one of the lowest walk rates in August and has little power aside from Salvador Perez. Greinke did struggle against the Royals in his last start, but has a better strikeout rate pitching in Houston. If you are interested in fading the projected ownership leader, Greinke’s 4.58 home ERA is 2.24 runs higher than his road ERA. He has also allowed a .807 OPS to current Royals hitters (69 at-bats).
Value
Wil Crowe is interesting with the Arizona Diamondbacks in town. Crowe’s ceiling projection is higher than Kyle Hendricks, Marco Gonzales, and Greinke. Arizona has the highest road K rate against right-handed pitching in August and have an unsustainable .337 BABIP. The Diamondbacks do have a top-10 walk rate and Hard Hit percentage on the road this month. Crowe has a 4.49 Walks Per 9 and 1.92 Home Runs Per 9 this season.
Fastballs
Humberto Mejia is the opener/starter for the Diamondbacks. In three starts, he has pitched 10 innings and allowed six earned runs. This is a long way of saying avoid him.
The Colorado Rockies strike out 28.4 percent of the time in road games against righties. Hendricks could have strikeout appeal in Chicago. He did have seven punch outs against the White Sox August 6. Wind should also not be a deterrent for starting Hendricks. It is expected to be blowing out to left field at 6 mph.
Gonzales has allowed two earned runs in August and has two wins and three quality starts over that time.
Notable Stack
We head to Houston for FanDuel’s top stack:
- Yuli Gurriel (R)
- Carlos Correa (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (R)
Total Salary: $14,400
The Astros are projected to score 5.6 runs and win by two. Brantley, Correa, and Alvarez are top-11 rated hitters on both sites. If salary is not an issues, Jose Altuve is the top-rated hitter on FanDuel and DraftKings against lefty Daniel Lynch.
Other Hitters
Matt Olson is hitting .242 against Gonzales, but four of his eight hits have left the park.
Marcus Semien has a 1.053 OPS against Lynn in 22 at-bats.
Cubs 1B Frank Schwindel has a hit in 16 of 19 games in August, including four home runs. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 5.80 road ERA and a .514 slugging percentage against.
Trevor Story has zero hits and four strikeouts in 10 at-bats against Hendricks.
Prior to August 22, Josh Rojas has a nine-game hitting streak. In his 0-for-4 effort the 22nd, Rojas still collected a walk and an RBI.
Photo Credit: Bob Levey/Getty Images
Pictured: Zack Greinke
