After a couple of larger Monday MLB DFS slates, we get a concentrated main slate with a funky start time. Tonight’s slate features six games and locks at 6:35 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Small slate, smaller list of elite-priced starting pitchers on FanDuel:
- Kyle Gibson (R) $9,500, TEX @ SF
- Dinelson Lamet (R) $9,000, SD @ COL
I wrote over at The Action Network about how Kyle Gibson is good! It is a tough pill for me to swallow but I promptly followed that pill with my foot. His two best seasons have one correlation – low BABIP. Gibson enters tonight’s start with a career-low .248 BABIP against and will face a Giants offense with a bottom-10 BABIP. It is realistic that both see regression for and against their current totals. Gibson will need to continue to limit hits against (30 in 41 innings pitched) because the Giants have done just enough to create offense and have a solid pitching staff.
San Francisco has a negative Offensive WAR but is still 12th in MLB. Its team WAR would be higher if it did not rank 29th in BsR, FanGraphs’ baserunning metric. Gibson and the Rangers are underdogs against the Giants, but the projected game total is only 7.5 runs, a good indicator on how Vegas expects the pitching matchup to go. In 41 1/3 IP, Gibson has allowed 12 runs while receiving 21 runs in support.
Dinelson Lamet has lasted four innings over two starts and is an injury concern, to put it nicely. He was limited in his second start after returning from forearm tightness and should see more work in Colorado, but it is in Colorado in less-than-ideal weather conditions. The projected game-time temperature in Denver is 41 degrees with a 65 percent chance for precipitation.
Neither pitcher rates well using the Bales Model, but if you want to spend up on a small slate, Gibson is the safer choice. The duo is priced lower on DraftKings
FanDuel currently has Jeff Hoffman as the projected starter for the Cincinnati Reds, but with their game postponed yesterday, Tyler Mahle may pitch with one extra day of rest. If so, he would probably be priced above $9,000 and be the choice over both Gibson and Lamet.
Value
Luke Weaver has been awful. He is allowing his highest Home Runs Per 9 Innings (HR/9) and Home Run-to-Flyball ratio of his career but lines up against one of the worst offenses in the Marlins. Their slugging percentage and Offensive WAR are bottom-10 in baseball and are just as bad specifically against righties on the road. I am not interested in many pitchers and Weaver is the only starter I will pay down for on FanDuel. He is $9,000 on DraftKings, too rich for my taste.
Fastballs
Alex Wood is the top-rated pitcher on DraftKings and second on FanDuel (the Bales Model is assuming Mahle pitches for Cincinnati). Only Weaver has a better Bargain Rating than Wood. The lefty has crushed his scoring projections in every start and will have arguably his toughest test against the Rangers’ top 10 offense. Texas has a 116 wRC+ against southpaws on the road. Wood tops all pitchers in Pro Trends on both platforms. Should be a fun contest by the Bay.
Notable Stack
Zero surprise to see the San Diego Padres atop FanDuel’s best stack:
- Eric Hosmer (L)
- Manny Machado (R)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)
- Trent Grisham (L)
Total Salary: $15,800
All four hitters rank as top 10 options on FanDuel and top 11 on DraftKings. You could also swap Machado for Wil Myers, save $400 in salary, and get the same projected point total. Myers is also a top 10 play on both sites. The Padres get Antonio Senzatela in his first start off the 10-day IL.
Other Hitters
Marwin Gonzalez is the top-rated hitter on FanDuel and second on DraftKings. He has a seven-game hitting streak that includes 10 hits, four doubles, and three RBI. Gonzalez should continue to hit atop the Red Sox lineup with Enrique Hernandez on the shelf. He is an affordable $2,500 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings.
Even more impressive than Gonzalez’s recent play is Raimel Tapia’s. The Rockies’ leadoff hitter is on an eight-game hitting streak (only one home game played) with 14 hits, two for extra bases, 10 RBI and two stolen bases. Tapia is a player I planted my flag with in Spring Training and he is making me look smart. He is my favorite Rockies hitter to game stack with the Padres.
Christian Vazquez is the top-rated catcher on FanDuel for their C/1B hybrid position, and seventh overall, and is averaging 9.14 points per game. There are worse ways to differentiate on a small slate. He is the same price as Jacob Stallings, Austin Nola, Matt Adams (okay?), and Victor Caratini. Vazquez is mispriced.
The Angels’ career of Albert Pujols was ended by Jared Walsh. He has zero competition for at-bats now that the Hall of Famer is gone and has responded with five RBI in his past two games.
Photo Credit: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
Pictured: Kyle Gibson
