After a hectic MLB DFS weekend, Monday’s slate features a manageable six games and locks at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
We head west for the top -priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Joe Musgrove (R) $10,500, SD vs MIL
- Brandon Woodruff (R) $9,600, MIL @ SD
- Dustin May (R) $9,300, LAD @ SEA
- Dylan Bundy (R) $9,000, LAA vs TEX
Joe Musgrove has been nails as a Padre. He tops pricing on FanDuel and DraftKings and is the best pitcher on the slate in terms of consistency. He also is tied or leads the position with six Pro Trends on both sites. His first start after throwing a no-hitter should have ended better for the righty, but it is probably why he has a lower median and ceiling projection than Brandon Woodruff and Dylan Bundy. The Musgrove-Woodruff matchup is going to be excellent to watch unless you roster Padres and Brewers. The game total has already dropped 0.5 runs to 6.5, the lowest on the slate. The Padres must score runs early against Milwaukee and continue the trend of putting pressure on their offense, the second-worst in the National League using Offensive WAR.
Woodruff has been excellent in two of three starts this year and has zero wins to show for it. It is realistic that Woodruff outpitches Musgrove but continues to not collect wins, and thus more fantasy points. The drop in the game total effected the Brewers’ team runs more than the Padres.
Dustin May will get the toughest test on the young season in Seattle. The Mariners are one of 12 teams with a positive Offensive WAR and one of eight teams that also has a positive BsR. The Dodgers cannot claim that despite being one of the best teams in recent memory. May did not miss bats (9.9% swinging strikes) in his last start and only pitched into the fifth inning. He will need to do better than that to have success and earn quality start and win points.
Dylan Bundy starts the Angels’ first game since Friday due to COVID-19. His successful 2020 has rolled into 2021. The Angels should be OK against the Texas Rangers after they lost two of three to an equally poor Baltimore Orioles squad. His matchup and the projected success of the Angels’ lineup against Kohei Arihara is why he tops the Bales Model on both sites.
Values
Kevin Gausman and Chase Anderson offer value on different platforms. Gausman is a top-five play on both sites this evening but is $1,900 cheaper on DraftKings against Anderson and the Philadelphia Phillies. He projects to have the second-most strikeouts while boasting a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Anderson has less upside and has not had longevity in his two starts but faces the 28th-ranked offense in baseball. Anderson carries a 92% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Fastballs
Jack Flaherty must match his outing against the Washington Nationals from last week to win the rematch on Monday. He had allowed six walks and earned runs prior to last week and managed to pitch five innings to log a win. It is not the start DFS players were looking for from the Cardinals’ ace, but he and each starter for St. Louis has had to be their best with the offense hurt and generally struggling.
Joe Ross had felt like an afterthought as a National prior to this spring. He has been great at the back of their rotation and has yet to allow a run in nine innings. He shut down the Cardinals last week and has one of the higher innings pitched projections among projected starters.
The weather in Kansas City could lead to value. Danny Duffy and Josh Fleming have similarly difficult tasks of slowing two offenses that are above average against left-handed pitching, according to Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). The game time temperature is projected to be 49 degrees with the wind blowing in from left field.
Notable Stack
We head to Los Angeles for tonight’s top stack on FanDuel.
- Jared Walsh (L)
- Mike Trout (R)
- Justin Upton (R)
- Shohei Ohtani (L)
Total Salary: $15,500
Not the L.A. team you may have expected. If the Seattle Mariners were worse on offense I would expect to see the Dodgers. Instead, it makes sense to keep picking on the Texas Rangers pitching staff. Kohei Arihara does not miss bats and the Angels do not miss many pitches. Mike Trout is a top-10 hitter based on the Bales Model and projections.
Other Hitters
The price discrepancy of Will Smith is interesting. He is not hitting well, and his fantasy production is being buoyed by walking and scoring runs as a catcher who hits high in the Dodgers’ lineup. His is $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings. I do not like either price because of ownership or being forced to play a catcher on DraftKings. The two home runs is good for scoring upside, but I do not expect to roster him.
A.J. Pollock against lefties is still a thing despite a slow start for the veteran. He has the third-lowest price among projected Dodgers hitters and is an easier piece to fit in lineups to get a piece of the Dodgers’ offense.
Ty France is a lock and is underpriced on both sites. He is getting little love because of the matchup despite a five-RBI series against Houston over the weekend. He also averages 6.1 DraftKings points more per game at home.
Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Mitch Haniger have suppressed ownership that could barely eclipse double-digits because of their matchups. I would try to get at least one of them in your lineups. Haniger is the easiest to roster with his salary up $1,800 less than the others.
Photo Credit: John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Pictured: Justin Upton and Mike Trout
