The gang’s almost all here for a massive 14-game main slate heading into the weekend. Lock is at 7 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
We have arguably the most dominating pitcher in baseball toeing the rubber. Here are the top priced pitchers on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,000, NYM @ COL
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,400, WSH vs ARI
- Steven Matz (L) $9,800, TOR @ KC
- Walker Buehler (R) $9,200 LAD @ SD
Poor Jacob deGrom has been getting as much run support as you and me when pitching for the New York Mets. He gets a road start against the Colorado Rockies, the second-worst offense according to Offensive WAR.
The game conditions will be less than ideal with the projected game time temperature to be 38 degrees with potential drizzle. I would normally champion a pitcher in cooler weather, but this weather could lead to injuries. I imagine the playing conditions play a role in deGrom having lower median projections than Max Scherzer.
Scherzer does not have an ideal matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, but he does get to face them away from the comforts of the desert. Arizona has already launched 18 home runs and has started 2021 with one of the best walk and strikeout rates.
They have also done their damage against some questionable pitching staffs. Scherzer has done well to limit his walks in a small sample size and needs to keep the ball in the park to maximize his value. He is the highest rated pitcher on FanDuel and DraftKings according to the Bales Model.
Steven Matz has been a great story as he works back from injury and inconsistencies. There is regression coming because he cannot sustain a 94.3 Left on Base Percentage (LOB%) and his Expected ERA (xERA) is a full run above his 1.46 ERA. Blue Jays-Royals is another game with weather concerns with an expected temperature of 47 and a 75% chance of precipitation.
Walker Buehler has a 100% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and a 1% rating on DraftKings. Not too often you see that in any of the FantasyLabs models. I say that as someone who looks at the DFS models for each active sport to start my day #CompanyMan. Buehler is projected 6.81 strikeouts using the K Predictor, third best on the slate and is favored to win.
The Dodgers projected to outscore the Padres 4.5-3.6 according to the Vegas Model, with the Padres’ 3.6 runs tied for the lowest with two other teams. Buehler continues to be slated for fewer than five innings in the Bales Model but should top enough innings pitched to log a win.
Values
Frankie Montas has the second most Pro Trends among projected starters and is in another contest with negative weather conditions. The Athletics offense is clicking after an abysmal 1-6 start to the season, collecting 12 walks against Detroit last night. The Tigers have an unenviable pitching staff and hope Jose Urena can slow down the A’s tonight. Montas is the second rated pitcher on both sites.
Andrew Heaney hopes the Minnesota Twins continue to struggle hitting after only scoring nine runs in four games against Boston. Heaney has a 4.0 Walks Per 9 Innings in two starts and has allowed over half of runners to reach base to score. Heaney’s xERA and Expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) score are around 3.00, a clear indicator that his 7.00 ERA will come down. The Bales Model thinks tonight is one of those nights. He has a 71% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
The Bales Model rates Jorge Lopez as a top 10 play on the road against Texas. Lopez is priced at $6,000 or less on both sites which plays into his perceived value, but he has allowed 11 earned runs in eight-plus innings this season. Texas just outscored the Tampa Bay Rays 19-9 in a four game set in Arlington and had success against much better pitchers than Lopez. Not all values are created equally.
Fastballs
Did you know Mike Minor is tied with deGrom with a 66% Consistency Rating over the past 12 months? He also has a lowed Dud percentage than Walker Buehler. Blue Jays-Royals is projected to be a close game with Toronto projected to score 0.1 runs more than Kansas City. There is value in pivoting off Matz for Minor.
There are two teams hitting below .200 as a team heading into the third week of the season – the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians. Jeff Hoffman displayed some of the control issues that led to his demise in Colorado but is supported by one of the better offenses in baseball now that he is with the Cincinnati Reds. Only the Dodgers have hit for power better than the Reds, and their defense has improved. The Indians just took advantage of the White Sox’s poor defense and will not have the benefit of extra at-bats and pitches in the battle of Ohio.
Anthony DeSclafani’s move to the San Francisco Giants is already paying off. He is not depending on his fastball/sinker combo and has nearly doubled his curveball usage in two starts. Hitters are also hitting the ball less against DeSclafani when swinging and are missing more than any point in his career.
Notable Stack
The offense listed below is in a game that has already been mentioned as a concern, but I get why it pops on FanDuel.
- Peter Alonso (R)
- Francisco Lindor (S)
- Brandon Nimmo (L)
- Dominic Smith (L)
Total Salary: $16,000
The New York Mets lead the slate with a projected run total of six. Only Alonso does not rank as a top 10 hitter on FanDuel. Nimmo is the top hitter on both sites and has met or exceeded his projection in four of six games. Lindor is also coming off his best game Wednesday. The obvious concern is the cold temperature. expected in Denver.
The only other teams projected within one run of the Mets are the Nationals and Angels. The Angels face less adverse weather conditions than the Nationals and face lefty Lewis Thorpe. The Angels have had success against southpaws so far but may not pitch long as a call-up for tonight’s contest.
Other Batters
All Tim Anderson does it hit. He looked great in his return from the IL and is a top five shortstop on both sites. The biggest discrepancy between price and projection for Anderson is on FanDuel. He is priced as the 13th shortstop while ranking third in the Bales Model.
Mark Canha is on a heater for the equally hot Athletics offense. He has turned that into a top 10 Consistency Rating and has been locked in at the top of Oakland’s batting order. Expect higher ownership with him a multiple A’s against Detroit.
Big money and sharps are betting the over 8.5 runs in tonight’s Orioles-Rangers game, according to the PRO Report on The Action Network. Using that information is important in lineup construction in all fantasy sports, which is why I dig Isiah Kiner-Falefa, David Dahl, and D.J. Stewart in a game stack on FanDuel. It is contrarian and avoids a couple of the bigger names for both teams. The home run upside that drives DFS lineups is capped, but their price points make it easier to pay for home run potential elsewhere.
Darin Ruf of the Giants plays against lefties and gets a chance to crack the lineup in Miami. He has two home runs and three RBI’s on the young season, all coming against southpaws and on the road. Ruf is a salary-saving upside play against the Marlins.
