Wednesday’s night slate features eight games and locks at 7:07 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Three staff aces and a co-ace lead pricing on FanDuel:
- Jacob deGrom (R) $12,200, NYM vs CHC
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,000, NYY @ TOR
- Zack Wheeler (R) $10,800, PHI @ LAD
- Clayton Kershaw (L) $10,200, LAD vs PHI
- Aaron Civale (R) $9,000, CLE vs BAL
We are witnessing greatness every fifth day when Jacob deGrom takes the mound. He and the Mets will look to secure a series win against the Cubs. deGrom left his last start with right flexor tendinitis but threw over the weekend and threw his scheduled bullpen. Concerns for a shorter outing will linger ahead of lock but it does not change deGrom being the top-rated pitcher in the Bales Model. He also leads the position in Pro Trends.
Any other day and Gerrit Cole would top pricing. On paper, a matchup against the Blue Jays is difficult, but Cole has been great against them in two starts albeit early in the season. Cole has 11 2/3 innings pitched against Toronto and has allowed three earned runs and has collected 16 strikeouts. Overall, Cole has 10 quality starts in 13 outings. His biggest blip is allowing five earned runs twice in his past five starts and he has scored under 35 FanDuel points in three of those starts. That is a “bad run” for Cole.
Zack Wheeler and Clayton Kershaw square off on the West Coast. Zack Wheeler has been one of the few good things about the Phillies’ season. Despite collecting only four wins, Wheeler has scored 55-plus FanDuel points in seven starts. The Dodgers’ lineup could easily keep that total at seven. They are top 10 in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA), Hard Hit percentage (Hard%) and Home Run-to-Flyball rate at home against right-handed pitching.
Kershaw has an easier matchup, especially with Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius out and Jean Segura day-to-day. The Phillies have a 95 wRC+ in road games against lefties, but also strike out 26.5% of the time against them and have gotten lucky at times (.319 BABIP). The future Hall of Famer rebounded against Texas in his last start and is the second-rated pitcher on both platforms.
Aaron Civale can give up home runs with the best of them and can also shut down an offense, with seven outings allowing two or fewer runs. Baltimore got to Civale June 5 in Baltimore, but this game is in Cleveland where Civale’s ERA is 1.10 runs lower and his slugging percentage against is .101 lower. His projected ownership and lower strikeout rate will make him a pivot despite a weaker opponent.
Value
It is a difficult slate to pay down for pitching. Bailey Ober has strikeout upside but has allowed 17 hits and three home runs in 13 innings in 2021. The Twins are close to punting the season and Ober is a pitcher that will get looks as often as possible. Ober has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Zack Grienke is a top-three option on both sites against Texas. He put up 37 FanDuel points at home in his lone start against them May 14. Grienke has sandwiched two one-run outings with two four-run outings, so there is volatility with paying $8,400 for a contact-based pitcher.
Ian Anderson is projected for low ownership since he is facing the Boston Red Sox. Eighteen runs were scored between the two teams Tuesday night, but Boston can attest that one offensive explosion does not carry over to the next game. After allowing 18 runs to the Blue Jays Saturday, they allowed one Sunday. I like Anderson as an afterthought with a higher price tag. He is a top-five option on FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Stack
The hits should keep on coming in the matchup of Texas:
- José Altuve (R)
- Alex Bregman (R)
- Michael Brantley (L)
- Yordan Alvarez (L)
Total Salary: $14,200
All four hitters are ranked in the top 10 on both platforms. The Astros have the highest projected team total (5.5 runs), are tied for the largest projected game total (9 runs) and are the second-largest favorites behind the Mets.
Other Hitters
DJ LeMahieu has five multi-hit starts in his last six games played.
Amed Rosario’s Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) is .103 higher and his slugging .114 higher against lefties than righties. Brady Akin (L) starts for Baltimore.
Take advantage of Atlanta Braves pricing. They are tied for the best Team Value Rating on DraftKings and third on FanDuel. Five of their eight projected batters have five or more Pro Trends.
There should be a little buyer beware with Mets players. Robert Stock is starting for the Cubs. He has pitched in nine games (two starts) and will give way to one of the best bullpens after a few innings. Stock has eight innings pitched in his two starts.
